Final balance: 5 successes and 5 failures of the presidency of Barack Obama
"My last request is the same as the first. I ask you to believe, not in my ability to bring about a change, but in yours," Barack Obama said in his farewell speech as president of the United States, before 18 thousand gathered followers in Chicago, the city where he began his political career.
On January 20, he will hand over to Donald Trump the command of the country that, despite all the changes that shook the world so far in the 21st century, is still the most powerful in the world. The Obama presidency was historic and will invariably stand out above others. Because he was the first black president. Because he assumed generating a movement of hope without many precedents.
The question that many are asking themselves these days is what has changed in these eight years. How many of those promises of transformation materialized, and how many were left to nothing. Infobae consulted five American political scientists to take stock of the achievements and failures of the Obama Administration. These are the most prominent:
OBAMA'S 5 ACHIEVEMENTS
1. Recovery of the economy
"When Obama took office, the Bush Administration had pushed the US economy into depression, with banks failing, homes foreclosed, unemployment and more. Towards the end of 2016 unemployment fell to 4.6% after creating 16 million The housing market recovered, the stock market recovered. With the financial reform of 2010, mechanisms to protect against the abuses of Wall Street were put in place, "said Dave Garson, professor of political science and government at North Carolina State University. .
The aggressive policy of negative rates and production incentives paid off. The 3.5% GDP growth recorded in the third quarter of 2016, the highest in two years, confirms that the ghosts of recession and double-digit unemployment have been left behind. It's true that the notable job expansion came from lower-quality, lower-paying jobs, which explains part of Trump's success. But the improvement is indisputable, and it was not easy to foresee in 2009.
"People forget the magnitude of the financial crisis that there was. The recovery did not reach everyone, but unemployment is below 5% and the economy is robust. He does not get enough credit because we cannot see the counterfactual. What would have happened if it hadn't been successful, "said David E. Lewis, a professor in the Department of Political Science at Vanderbilt University.
2. The end of the Iraq War
"The Bush Administration led the Americans into a counterproductive war in Iraq," Garson said. "Previously, Iraq was a counterweight to Iran in the region, so its main effect was to give Iran hegemony. It also made it climb to its peak. America's debt. Obama ended the war, even though the damage from Bush's policies was done. "
The president ended the conflict in 2011, eight years after it began, and accelerated the process of repatriation of the troops. It is true that the withdrawal was never complete, and that the emergence of the Islamic State forced it to reinforce the military presence in the country. But beyond all the turmoil that occurred in the region in these years, it was able to move towards a progressive demilitarization of foreign policy.
3. Nuclear deal with Iran
"Obama led foreign policy progress on a variety of fronts, including the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and the negotiation of an agreement with Iran to block its chances of developing an atomic bomb, in exchange for a reduction of sanctions. The incoming Trump Administration doesn't even recognize climate change as a problem and criticizes the Iran deal, but both are historic achievements, "Garson said.
The pact reached in July 2015 with the Shiite regime marked a significant advance in a long-standing conflict. Beyond angering some hawks, it allowed a dispute that threatened to turn violent to be transferred to diplomatic channels. It also meant the reestablishment of relations with a country with which all dialogue was broken.
"These kinds of achievements required Obama to break with long-standing positions and take risks that others would not have dared to," explained William A. Boettcher III, professor of political science and international studies at Carolina State University of the United States. North.
4. Advances in the protection of the environment
The Paris Agreement against climate change, which entered into force in November 2016, committed all signatory countries to reduce emissions of gases that cause global warming. Obama was key to giving it momentum, overcoming pressure from the US industrial network. It was not his only decision in that direction.
"The executive orders he took and the work of his Environmental Protection Agency in controlling pollution were significant achievements. His efforts in favor of energy efficiency and tightening of standards for coal-fired power plants have been vital to reducing emissions of carbon dioxide and other air pollutants, "said Marjorie Hershey, professor of political science at Indiana University.
5. Obamacare
"The significant expansion of health insurance through the Affordable Care Act (called Obamacare by its Republican opponents) gave 20 million previously uninsured Americans access to insurance. That protects them from bankruptcy due to expenses. doctors and improves your chances of leading a productive life, "Hershey said.
It was one of the most ambitious and questioned reforms of her government due to its high cost. With all its limitations it is the most important health policy promoted by the United States in recent history.
OBAMA'S 5 FAILURES
1. Syria
"Republicans argue that Obama broadly failed in his foreign policy. They point out that he was unable to enforce his 'red line' on the use of chemical weapons in Syria, and on increasing Russian aggressions, such as actions in Ukraine and Crimea. "said Timothy M. Hagle, an American policy specialist at the University of Iowa.
It is clear that Syria was a problem that surpassed it. The Obama administration always ran behind events and did not know how to react to each new milestone: the protests against the Bashar al Assad regime, the outbreak of civil war, its savage chemical weapons attacks against its own population, the rise and expansion of the Islamic State and the subsequent intervention of Moscow with an increasingly leading role. With every step the crises multiplied and the responses of the United States were always erratic.
"In all those failures," said Boettcher, "Obama's realism prevented him from taking more decisive action, which could have yielded different results. His caution led to each situation getting worse."
2. Worsening of the fiscal and management deficit
"The United States has a deficit problem because of the tax structure and solvency of social security and health insurance, which remain after eight years of presidency. Likewise, long-standing management problems continue in the functioning of federal agencies, largely due to the negligence of different presidents, including Obama. The Federal Government does not have a modern personnel management system, and I am not sure the president understood the challenges of managing by force of federal work, "Lewis said.
3. Weakening of the Democratic Party
No one can dispute the qualities of the outgoing president as a candidate. His charisma allowed him to compensate for his lack of experience to win his two presidential elections with some comfort. But he was unable to transfer that ability to his party, which was ostensibly weakened during his time in the White House.
"By neglecting the Democratic Party at the state and local level," Garson said, "the Republican Party was successful in manipulating constituencies, restricting voting rights, flooding the electoral process with money, and much more. While it can't be done. blaming Obama individually for that, strengthening the Democratic Party was not his priority, and he was not an effective leader in the states. As a result, despite the majority of citizens supporting Democratic policies, most constituencies They are dominated by Republicans. In 2016 they managed to gain control of the presidency, the two houses of Congress, and almost all the governorships and state legislatures. "
4. Abuses in the fight against terrorism
The young senator from Illinois came to Washington promising to fight terrorism while respecting human rights, to differentiate himself from the practices promoted by his predecessor. Along these lines, he promised to close the Guantanamo prison. Although there were some advances, such as the transfer of prisoners, it was unable to fulfill any of these commitments.
"Obama was the 'president drone,'" Garson continued. "Drone attacks increased a lot, even to kill American citizens without a judicial process. He also made the mass search of emails and phones, and kidnapping and indefinite detention, routine. of foreign radicals. While in his defense he is supposed to have ended torture and secret prisons, both appear to have continued to some extent. Obama thus leaves behind a legacy of 'strongman' tactics that Trump will be able to capitalize on and expand on. "
5. Obamacare
Yes, it was a very important achievement for the number of people to whom he gave an answer. But also an equally great failure. The best proof is that it is on the verge of being eradicated by the Republican majority in Congress, which is not meeting much resistance due to its many design and implementation errors.
"The Republicans made the Obamacare problems the center of their campaign arguments," Hagle said, "while the Democrats chose not to support it with the force with which it was hoped. We have to wait to see what the Republicans do with the law, but whatever the outcome, we know that Obamacare is going to disappear or change dramatically. "
How did the project fail? "The rank and file of the Democratic Party wanted to follow the model of the rest of the industrial world and have national health insurance. But instead of defending that vision, Obama leaned towards the plan of a Republican governor, who established tax penalties to force the people without health insurance to buy a private one, even providing some subsidies for them. Although it benefited the private insurers, the Republicans repudiated it and made it the focus of their attacks. Now it will be dismantled as a political failure, hated by Republicans and by the Democratic base alike, "Garson concluded.
