Joe Biden and US-China relations
The president-elect has little margin to back down from the Asian country
Opinions have prevailed during the US presidential campaign that relations between China and the US would tend to improve after a Joe Biden presidency. The unprecedentedly confrontational imprint that Donald Trump gave to the bilateral link and that unleashed an unprecedented conflict with the Asian power would thus be overcome.
The view of the "optimists" is based on the following assumptions. In the first place, it is assumed that Biden's foreign policy towards China is expected to have a similar focus to the presidencies of Barack Obama, whom Biden seconded. On the other hand, it is often said that Biden is a reasonable and dialogist leader, who will seek to rebuild the relationships that Trump dynamited. That reconstructive mission would also include the critical link with China.
Finally, optimists affirm that the US will regain a necessary leadership role on the international scene, once again being the dominant voice on issues such as democratic values, defense of human rights and the fight against climate change. At least, that's Biden's stated intention. However, there are arguments to refute these optimistic assumptions, based on concrete elements to argue to the contrary.
First of all, replicating Obama's foreign policy toward China seems impossible. If the Democrats wanted to return to a competitive relationship position, Trump has taken things to such a point with China that it will be very difficult to back down without exhibiting weakness and arousing criticism, even from the electorate itself. Biden himself has recognized that China is a threat because of its technological advances and repressive practices.
At the same time, American society has become very synophobic. Trump had a lot to do with sparking that sentiment, added to the fact that the unfortunate pandemic originated in China. In that sense, Biden knew how to dodge with great skill the attacks of Trump in the campaign, who defined him as "the candidate of Xi Jinping." For his part, the Democrat replied by confronting the failure in terms of the results of the trade war.
Nor should we forget that Biden has had very harsh definitions regarding China and, in particular, towards the person of President Xi Jinping. Biden was likely conditioned by the campaign frenzy and Trump's strategy. But difficult to overlook the fact that he called Xi Jinping a "bully" and proclaimed that he "will do everything to make China behave according to the rules." Not very different from the vision wielded by Trump.
Regarding the supposed qualities of Biden as a dialogue and reasonable leader, although a clear contrast with Trump is already noted, we are facing a great unknown. Biden never held executive positions, nobody knows how he can lead the US in a hypothetical turn towards de-escalation of tension with China. And is that really what Biden wants? It was not very clear during the campaign.
Make America respected again?
In his inaugural address, Biden devoted a good time to the need to reestablish the historic position of the US on the global scene, with the idea of "making America respected again." Basically, this would imply regaining the trust and prestige lost vis-à-vis the main North American partners. But today the country is in a situation of great relative weakness to achieve it. The priority, as Biden himself has raised, is to overcome the pandemic and heal the deep internal wounds of a country that is highly divided and with far from encouraging economic prospects. Not to mention what awaits poor Biden in the short term, in terms of a transition that is expected to be very complicated with the outgoing president.
In short, if the United States advances on the road to recovering its preeminence on a global scale, everything indicates that it will be a long process full of enormous difficulties. Also, keep in mind that the others also play. In terms of controlling the pandemic and economic recovery, China has taken a clear advantage over the US, while simultaneously making a great effort to contain the wave of Sinophobia and improve its international image. But there is no doubt that the Communist Party looks stronger in the face of Chinese citizens, with Xi Jinping concentrating more and more power.
China wants more cooperation, but will not give in on its big goals
China will not resign the hard-won positions with President Xi, who has raised China's international profile and has become very comfortable in his paradoxical role as a defender of free trade, multilateralism and globalization. Of course, it is convenient for China to have a more cooperative and predictable bilateral relationship with the United States. On issues such as climate change, for example, there are great coincidences with Biden. The same can be said for other issues, such as global health and the fight against poverty.
However, in Beijing there is not much optimism about improving relations. Furthermore, there is no will to give up the great medium and long-term objectives, with the consolidation of economic growth, the search for technological self-sufficiency and the reaffirmation of territorial sovereignty as fundamental aspects. In that sense, President Xi recently announced that it is "perfectly possible" for China to double the size of its economy by 2035, despite unprecedented adversities. And this will be achieved regardless of the intentions of the US and other powers.
Democracy, human rights and Chinese military expansionism
There is another factor to take into account, which is the issue of democracy and human rights, central to the agenda of the democrats (especially for the progressive wing). It is expected that this sensitive issue will gain importance in the bilateral relationship with China, with thorny fronts already open regarding the situation in Hong Kong and Xinjiang. Added to this is the growing economic and military support for Taiwan. In fact, these have been one of the few issues with bipartisan consensus during the Trump administration, with several laws passed.
In turn, there is the challenge posed by China's military expansionism in the Indo-Pacific region. Biden vowed to mend neglected relationships with long-standing partners in the region that have been unleashed by Trump, such as Japan, South Korea and the Philippines. Again, the world has changed a lot for the Democrats and China has managed to strengthen ties with those countries, taking advantage of Trump's isolationist retreat in the region.
In conclusion, if Biden is really consistent with his campaign speech and with the ideology of his party, added to the previously highlighted contextual factors, it is very likely that relations between China and the United States will not only not improve, but will even tend to get worse. At least, it is a scenario that should not be ruled out at all.
The author is director of the Sino-Argentine Observatory, professor of the Postgraduate Program on Contemporary China at the UCA and visiting professor at the University of Zhejiang (China).
