Trump-Biden: who is best for us?
Very clever who can predict, a few days before a high-tension election, which Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Joe Biden will win. Even if the latter is given the winner in the polls, everyone remembers that the same was true for Hillary Clinton in 2016. However, the closer the result, the worse the scenario - contested votes, street riots … - is to be feared.
While the Covid-19 pandemic has plunged the world's leading power into an unprecedented slump and Donald Trump electrified the country to a level rarely reached, the rest of the world has never been so suspended at the end of this election. If we analyze the programs of the two candidates in the sole yardstick of our European and French interests, the balance tilts in the side of Joe Biden. However, with some surprises ...
The fight against global warming
- Biden Advantage
No matter how hard we look, not a line in candidate Trump's program mentions the ecological transition. No chance, therefore, of seeing this climate skeptic reinstate the hundred or so environmental rules he abolished during his first term. On the international stage, a new Trump era would rule out any return of the United States to the Paris Agreement, the international anti-warming treaty rejected in 2017 by the Republican president. The latter prefers to congratulate himself on the fact that his country has won "the war for fine clean coal".
Joe Biden stands on a completely different line, promising to join the Paris agreement "from the first day of his inauguration" and making the green transition his priority, with a goal of net zero carbon emissions by 2035. To achieve this , he wants to give a tax boost to the electric car, invest in renewable energies, develop clean mobility and subsidize energy efficiency work.
Good news for the planet, of course, but also a great opportunity for our companies. Whether it is the public transport specialists Transdev and Keolis, already well established in the United States, the water and waste treatment giants Veolia and Suez, or the heavyweight of energy services Engie which intends to double its turnover across the Atlantic by 2022, the election of Biden would be an excellent signal. Our green tech start-ups are also rubbing their hands at this prospect. At the last CES show in Las Vegas, a showcase for the technologies of tomorrow, more than twenty of them made the trip. Niels Van Duinen is already in the starting blocks. "Between infrastructure and renewable energies, Biden has promised to invest 2000 billion dollars, we would have a boulevard in front of us", anticipates from Boston one of the managers of Fonroche, an SME in Agen that has become the world leader in public lighting. solar after the takeover of its American competitor Solar One.
Finally, this green turn imposed by Biden would force American companies to get up to speed, which would have a cost. "Ahead of CSR (corporate social responsibility) standards, European groups and in particular French groups would find a competitive advantage there", assures Jean-Marc Huissoud,
Trade war with China
- Tie between Trump and Biden
Thanks Trump! For once, there are many on this side of the Atlantic - politicians, economists, business leaders - to acknowledge at least that to the outgoing president: “He opened the eyes of Europeans to the reality of Chinese threat and started the dirty work for us, ”observes Sébastien Laye, Franco-American entrepreneur and researcher at the Thomas More Institute. The Covid-19 crisis only made his diagnosis more convincing: By letting China become the factory of the world, the West has relinquished its security in essential areas. Health, of course - didn't we discover, dumbfounded, that 80% of the active ingredients of drugs were manufactured in the Middle Kingdom and in India?
But our vulnerability applies to heaps of other sectors, automobile parts, electronic components, telecom equipment ... "If we want to regain our independence, we will have to urgently reorganize many of our industrial sectors", warns Sarah Guillou, economist at the 'OFCE. Exactly Donald Trump's objective, which intends to "decouple" the American and Chinese economies. "We are going to end our dependence on China because we cannot trust them," the Republican candidate hammered again on September 7. The arsenal of taxes and boycotts put in place since 2017 already seems to be bearing fruit: China's trade surplus vis-à-vis the United States fell by 8.5% in 2019 but still reached 295, 8 billion dollars.
During his next term, Donald Trump promises to exclude from the New York Stock Exchange groups that do not submit their accounts to the American authorities, or to add SMIC, the largest Chinese chipmaker, to his blacklist where notably includes the telecoms giant Huawei.
On this file, Joe Biden is hardly less vindictive. "Even if he puts it in the form, China is also clearly his enemy," observes Jean-Alain Andrivon of Rexecode. Unlike his Republican rival, however, the Democratic candidate intends to embark Europe in this crusade, which could help him regain its sovereignty in many sectors. But if it is to take advantage of the windfall, the EU will have to stop procrastinating as it has for years. "The Biden team will force us to clarify our strategy and to be more vigilant on the opening of our public markets, the protection of intellectual property, or even the danger of Huawei in 5G ...", anticipates a senior Brussels official . Thus denied, Europe, which has already taken a giant leap in calling China a "systemic rival", will be able to push its pawns and play between the two powers.
Oil price
- Trump advantage
By deregulating the exploitation of gas and shale oil, by authorizing the construction of mega-pipelines and oil drilling in natural areas, Donald Trump has inflicted on his country a colossal ecological cost but he has kept one of his campaign promises: make the United States the leading producer of oil, ahead of Saudi Arabia and Russia, and the leading producer of natural gas, ahead of Russia and Iran. This massive influx of barrels made in the USA had an immediate effect on the drop in crude prices. With the Covid crisis and the global economy at a standstill, they literally collapsed, angering Riyadh and Moscow ... and worsening tensions between Washington and Tehran, the Trump administration stepping up pressure to cut the Iranian oil tap.
This fall in the energy bill has of course benefited our manufacturers, transporters, logisticians ... But it endangers thousands of small American black gold producers, unable to survive when the price of a barrel of Brent stagnates around 40 dollars, according to several industry experts. "Biden, but above all Trump, who is their candidate, will have no choice but to support them, while taking care not to start the barrel again too much on pain of weakening an airline sector in turmoil and penalize consumers at the pump ”, analyzes Jean-Alain Andrivon.
Hyper power of Gafam
- Tie between Trump and Biden
Those who imagine that a Democratic administration will dare to attack the virtual monopolies enjoyed by Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon and Microsoft will be at their cost. Joe Biden did not accept any of the proposals of the more left-wing Democratic primary candidates - Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren - who planned to dismantle these behemoths. This reluctance is explained very well. Historically, culturally and financially, the ties between Silicon Valley and the Democratic Party have always been very strong. The Obama administration was home to several Google alumni. And Joe Biden's program is clearly pro tech, with an ambitious plan to support innovation.
Finally, the digital giants have become the flagships of American domination in the world, a weapon that the new president, whoever he is, will not be able to do without, especially vis-à-vis China which protects its own. giants (Alibaba, WeChat, Huawei, etc.). Paradoxically, Donald Trump could be more offensive against the hyper power of the Gafam. In recent years, he has not sought to curb the various antitrust investigations targeting Google and Facebook in particular. And you can't say he carries Amazon boss Jeff Bezos in his heart! He regularly accuses the richest man in the world of killing the local petty business and mistreating him in the pages of the “Washington Post”, which he owns.
The current president has also not hesitated to overtax imports of certain components from China, at the risk of increasing the manufacturing costs of many products, including Apple's. If he is re-elected, Donald Trump will not necessarily destroy the Gafam house, especially outside the American borders. It should therefore not be counted on to speed up the implementation of a digital tax, currently under discussion within the OECD.
Very upbeat on this file, Bercy estimates the loss of revenue for the French state at over 1 billion euros per year due to the tax optimization practiced by the Gafams. “I don't like companies in Silicon Valley, but they are American. If anyone has to tax them, it will be us, not a foreign power, "the Republican candidate said recently. It has the merit of being clear.
Success of our companies in the American market
- Biden Advantage
At first glance, a re-election of Donald Trump would be rather good news for the 4,800 French companies located in the United States, where they employ 730,000 people. Air Liquide, Safran, Danone - which generates 20% of its turnover there -, L'Oréal, Pernod Ricard, LVMH, Airbus, Michelin, Axa… all have benefited from the massive tax reduction plan implemented in from 2018. In particular the corporate tax rate (IS), which rose from 35 to 21%, and the capital income tax, from 28 to 20%.
On the face of it, Joe Biden's plan to raise the IS level to 28% could therefore make more than one wince. Well no ! "First of all because this measure was presented before the Covid crisis, and that, faced with the urgency of getting America out of its economic slump, a Democratic administration will avoid increasing corporate taxation too much", anticipates Gregory Daco, United States Specialist at Oxford Economics. Secondly, because these possible tax increases will finance a gigantic stimulus package of 7 trillion dollars in education, health, infrastructure, etc. "This will boost growth, and therefore household consumption and the equipment needs of companies, so many outlets for our own", underlines Jean-Luc Proutat, economist at BNP Paribas.
Finally, Joe Biden pledged to reverse the brakes imposed by the Trump administration on the granting of visas to foreign entrepreneurs, investors, engineers or researchers. "A nightmare for many French start-ups, brutally stopped in their conquest of the American market", testifies Olivier Piton, lawyer based in Washington. Biden elected - and if the reopening of the borders allows it - many should try their luck again.
Security of the West
- Biden Advantage
The most dangerous strategic move in generations and a considerable advantage granted de facto to Vladimir Putin. This is how high dignitaries of American diplomacy recently qualified the diabolical plan lent to Donald Trump if he was re-elected: the outright withdrawal of the United States from NATO, the political and military alliance that links 30 countries of 'North America and Europe since 1949. In the sights of the Republican candidate: European countries which rely too much on the United States for their defense, and which do not respect the internal NATO rule of devoting 2% from their GDP to military spending. This is particularly the case for Germany, which only contributes 1.2% (compared to 2.30% for France).
At the end of July, Washington threatened to withdraw 12,000 of its 34,500 troops deployed across the Rhine. "We are tired of being pigeons, we will reduce our forces because they do not pay enough", declared Donald Trump, moreover always quick to blow on the embers threatening world security in the Middle East, in Iran or in Iran. Mediterranean.
Joe Biden immediately replied that a departure of American troops from Germany "would benefit Russia, degrade the military readiness of the United States and undermine the relations of the United States with Europe, which remains our main partner. commercial". It prevents. Even if a victory for the Democrats guarantees the maintenance of the Americans in NATO, "the Europeans will have to move forward in the construction of a common defense which will suppose a greater integration of the means of military action", advances the expert in strategy of security Jean-Paul Perruche.
Relations between Europe and the United States
- Biden Advantage
He may have vituperated, denounced, threatened, nothing helped. Donald Trump’s pet peeve, the European Union - "almost as terrible as China," he tweeted recently - will have remained under his tenure the world's largest trading power and the United States the number one export destination. And France is not left out! In 2018, for the first time in ten years, our trade in goods with the United States became in surplus of 3.2 billion euros, a performance confirmed in 2019 with a positive balance of 4 billion.
Enough to annoy the Republican candidate who swore, once reelected, to erase these "150 billion dollars (EU trade surplus with the United States) lost each year", a consequence according to him "of customs barriers unjust ”. The argument does not hold, since Europe levies an average of 1.4% tariffs on American products and the United States 1.6% on ours. Never mind, "if we fail to negotiate a new agreement, we will put a 25% tax on their cars," warns Donald Trump, at war with all multilateral bodies. The threat is primarily aimed at Germany, but it would also weaken many of our equipment manufacturers.
The re-election of Donald Trump would also risk aggravating the Airbus-Boeing dispute over public aid received by the two aircraft manufacturers. At the end of August, after a new proposal from the Europeans to settle this sixteen-year-old conflict, Washington addressed an inadmissibility to Brussels and announced the maintenance of the customs surcharges introduced as reprisals since October 2019, on imports of Airbus and a number of European products, including French wines and cheeses.
In this hectic context, "the election of Joe Biden would help relieve the pressure," forecasts Sébastien Jean, director of Cepii (Center for Foresight Studies and International Information). “Of course, a possible Democratic administration will also be determined to protect American interests, adds Jean-Marc Huissoud, professor at Grenoble EM. But we can expect it to choose to strengthen its relations with Europe in order to better counter China. "
