Obama's shadow: what influence will he have on the Biden presidency?
The former president is omnipresent due to the success of his memoirs and many of his senior positions will return to government. Biden can use it to placate the left wing of the party, but he has his own profile
He has done it again. After four years of silence while Donald Trump occupied the White House, Barack Obama is everywhere again. On television, on the radio, on the networks and in bookstores.
The 44th President of the United States' memoir, A Promised Land, was published on November 17, and after selling 890,000 copies in its first 24 hours, it is likely to become the best-selling presidential memoir in history. modern country. Obama has surpassed the 725,000 copies sold that his wife's autobiographical book reached on publication day.
Since the promotion of the 768-page book began, there is a recurring question: What influence will both Obama and his allies wield when his number two Joe Biden takes office in January? The question is a double-edged sword. Biden knows he can always turn to his old boss for advice, but he is following in the footsteps of a huge figure and he could fare badly in comparisons.
David Garrow, author of Rising Star: The Making of Barack Obama, says: “I am sure you will be happy to respond to any question or request that Biden brings to you. I wonder if, having served eight years as vice president, Biden is going to bet on leaning on Barack in any meaningful way. It might seem that he turns to the older brother "
At 59, Obama is still in his political prime. In the book, he writes about the month after leaving the White House with his wife Michelle: “We slept late, had a big dinner, took long walks, swam in the ocean, regained strength, took care of our friendship, rediscovered our love and planned a second stage with fewer shocks and the hope of the same satisfactions ”.
Rediscovering love
That second stage will include another volume of memoirs and a presidential library - the museum dedicated to each president, common in the United States - valued at 500 million dollars in Jackson Park, in the south of Chicago. Obama showed a model of the building on the 60 Minutes program on CBS. He explained that it will include a replica of the oval office and Michelle Obama's dresses that "will undoubtedly be highly celebrated."
But the ex-commander-in-chief's round of interviews, including a detailed diagnosis of how division and misinformation threaten democracy, also reminds his supporters of Obama's exceptional political ability. It even raises a very tempting idea. A possible return to the ring.
During an interview with the Sunday morning show on CBS, Obama said that Biden “doesn't need my advice and I will help him in any way I can. No, I don't plan on working on the White House team or anything like that. "When asked if he would consider a possible nomination for a cabinet position, he replied," There are things I wouldn't do because Michelle would leave me. , 'What? What are you going to do what?'
Biden, 78, was a senator from Delaware from 1973 to 2009, then Obama's vice president until 2017. Obama has praised Biden and the vice president-elect, Sen. Kamala Harris of California, on several occasions during his tour. He describes them as the best hope the country has for a return to stability after the Trump years. But Obama did not always see Biden as his natural heir. It is said that in 2015 he opted for Hillary Clinton and discouraged Biden from running for president. When Biden did so in 2020, his third attempt, Obama was once again skeptical and did not support him until he was nominated as a candidate in mid-April.
The number two
In his book, Obama explains that Biden was against the Navy Seals operation that ended Osama bin Laden's life in 2011. Trump exploited that issue in his campaign. Garrow qualifies: “They strongly and privately disagreed on various foreign policy issues, as in the case of the operation that ended Osama bin Laden. Somehow, I think Biden would feel that calling Obama would belittle him. But he would say the same of almost any former vice president. It has more to do with the position than with each person ”.
Still, as Biden encounters a discouraging entry due to the coronavirus pandemic, an economic crisis and race riots, Obama could prove to be an invaluable source of advice. This would follow the path set by John F. Kennedy, who consulted Dwight Eisenhower during the Cuban missile crisis and in the tradition followed by other presidents, with the exception of Trump, of sharing some complex moments with their predecessors.
David Litt, who has written speeches for the 44th president, says Obama and Biden "had a very intense working relationship and a lot of respect and personal trust, so I think it's a very interesting situation." He also believes that “President Obama would have supported any Democratic president in any way, but in this specific case there is even closer proximity since many people who worked in the Obama Administration and later in the Biden campaign are very likely to join the Biden administration. "
The media has reported other Obama administration veterans being considered for key positions under Biden. They talk about Susan Rice, former National Security Councilor, and Michèle Flournoy, former Under Secretary of Defense. But it would be a mistake to regard the Biden presidency as Obama's third term, according to Litt, author of the book Democracy in One Book or Less.
"Looking at the speeches and campaign of Biden and his team, they have been very clear that Joe Biden's role as Vice President of President Obama was an important part of his biography, but Biden has run his own campaign and this will be his presidency, "he says.
To be clear, according to political outlet Axios, Biden's transition team has told Obama veterans that they are welcome to apply for jobs, but that people who worked on Biden's campaign will have priority.
One thing that may prove crucial to Biden is how Obama is perceived, not by his Democratic base, but by the 73 million people who voted for Trump, a man who broke into politics by pushing the racist conspiracy theory that Obama was not born in the United States. The pragmatic Biden has promised to heal the wounds between the most Republican and the most Democratic states.
Larry Jacobs, director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Government at the University of Minnesota, says: "Obama is very popular with Democrats, but with Republicans it is more complex. It is very possible, in terms of public presentation, that we get to see a little George W. Bush. He could be just the kind of Republican leader Joe Biden is going to need on inauguration day and at other key moments to show normalcy after Donald Trump's deranged presidency. "
Other analysts suggest that Obama could be a valuable bulwark for moderate Biden, as he faces pressure from his left flank on issues such as police reform and the climate crisis. Pointing to the losses of the Democrats in the House of Representatives, Michael Steele, former chairman of the Republican National Committee, says, "I think Obama is going to be important in keeping progressives in check a bit."
Biden spent eight years in the shadow of Obama. He's about to find out if, even with the powers of the presidency, he can really escape it. But given the multiple crises that you will face from the moment you enter the Oval Office, this may be the least of your problems.
Moe Vela, Biden's former vice presidential adviser, says: "Joe Biden is a very confident man. He's very comfortable in his skin. He knows who he is and frankly loves and admires Barack Obama. He doesn't feel threatened by Barack's adoration. Obama. If anything, he's a big fan of yours. " "I don't think he feels threatened by it at all. His job is so complex that the last thing Joe Biden cares about, I'm sure, is whether Barack Obama is turning heads with his book tour. He doesn't have it on his radar. He is happy for Obama, but he has a lot in the pan. "
Translated by Alberto Arce.
