Trump tests positive for covid-19: what impact the news has for the election (and what other questions does it leave)
If something was missing for the United States and its electoral campaign to enter an unprecedented phase in its modern history, that just happened: President Donald Trump tested positive for coronavirus, as he himself announced this Friday, and is hospitalized as a precaution.
"I think I'm fine," Trump said Friday in a short video posted on his twitter account, in which he thanked the support.
For months, the US president minimized the pandemic and was skeptical about its severity, despite the fact that the US accumulates 208,000 deaths from covid-19, the highest number of deaths in the world.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 2, 2020
But the news of the positive of Trump and his wife Melania and their hospitalization comes at a particularly delicate moment: just a month before the presidential election in which the current president faces Democrat Joe Biden.
Biden said he will pray "for the health and safety" of Trump and his family.
The Democratic candidate reported this Friday on his Twitter account that both he and his wife Jill were also subjected to a covid-19 test and tested negative. Trump and Biden agreed in the first electoral debate ahead of the next elections that took place this week.
One of the big questions now is how the contagion and Trump's quarantine will affect the electoral campaign.
We analyze this and other questions left by this positive.
What is known about Trump's health?
Trump's doctor, Sean Conley, released a statement late Thursday, saying the president and the first lady were "fine at this time and plan to stay in the White House during their convalescence."
"I hope that the president will continue to carry out his duties without interruption while he recovers, and I will keep you informed of any future developments," the statement added.
The doctor did not provide further details.
Hours later, he said Trump was showing "slight symptoms" and was taken to hospital as a precaution.
Trump will have to stay isolated for at least a few days and had to suspend campaign activities.
According to experts, next week may be key to knowing how Trump's health will evolve.
Trump's most recent physical exam, conducted earlier this year, indicated he weighed 110.7 kg.
This is considered obese for his height of 1.9 m.
But Dr. Conley said at the time that the president "is healthy."
Trump will also have the best medical care available at Walter Reed Hospital.
Are you at particular risk because of their age?
In the case of the new coronavirus, age is a clear risk factor: the older, the greater the danger of a coronavirus infection becomes life threatening.
People between 64 and 74 years covid-19 in the US are five times more likely to need hospital care and 90 times more likely to die than someone of 20 years.
According to the Centers for Prevention and Disease Control (CDC, for its acronym in English), 8 out of 10 deaths per covid-19 in the country have been people over 65 years.
The virus also seems to affect more men and overweight people.
This occurs because obesity causes a state of chronic inflammation that affects the functioning of the body cells and its mucosal surfaces, which are interrupted its function natural protective barrier and facilitate virus attack coronavirus.
For Anthony Zurcher, the BBC's North America correspondent, it is difficult to say exactly how momentous this is practically a month before the US elections.
This was already a very particular campaign, without massive events due to the pandemic.
The second presidential debate between Trump and Biden is scheduled for October 15 in Miami, Florida, and it is not yet clear how the contagion from the president will affect their organization.
However, Mica Mosbacher, who is part of the Trump campaign advisory team, said this Friday on the BBC's Today program that they feel "very optimistic" and does not rule out that the debate can be done virtually.
Tonight, @FLOTUS and I tested positive for COVID-19. We will begin our quarantine and recovery process immediately. We will get through this TOGETHER!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 2, 2020
What will happen to the campaign?
"Following the CDC guidelines, (Trump) will not be able to attend mass events," Mosbacher said, "but it is entirely possible to do a virtual debate in two weeks."
"The president will continue to work from the White House."
It also remains to be seen how the president's campaign handles this, who according to Zurcher will have to answer why the president adopted such an apparently arrogant attitude towards the pandemic, and how many high-ranking officials in the White House may have been exposed.
Just two days ago, during the first debate, Trump disparaged Democratic opponent Joe Biden for frequently wearing face masks and not holding campaign rallies the same size as his own.
Now the fact that the president has tested positive can already mean a resounding blow to his campaign, which seems more committed than ever
This will keep in the limelight a topic that Trump was trying to avoid while ranking behind Biden in polls: how he responded to the pandemic himself.
For some, that Trump is now infected is perhaps the ultimate proof that he underestimated the risks of COVID-19 and increased its impact on the country.
But it is also possible that Trump will recover quickly from the virus and will be able to resume his campaign.
Some voters may even feel more empathy for the president at this time of personal difficulty for him.
Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who has many similarities with Trump including his response to the pandemic, had a significant recovery in popularity after testing positive for COVID-19 in July and among other things, he adopted a greater reserve in public life.
Under what circumstances could the elections be delayed?
In any case, President Trump's quarantine period has an impact on his ability to campaign and therefore another question that arises is about the chances of the election being delayed.
Under US law, presidential elections are held on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November, every four years, so this year they are November 3.
Changing the date would be up to US lawmakers, not the president. A majority in both houses of Congress - the House of Representatives and the Senate - would be required for any change of date.
That seems unlikely given that the House of Representatives is controlled by Democrats.
But even if it was changed, the US Constitution states that a presidential administration only lasts four years. So President Trump's term will automatically expire at noon on January 20, 2021.
What if Trump falls seriously ill and cannot fulfill his duties?
For now, the president has not been reported to be unwell, and this is a scenario they have not anticipated since the Trump campaign.
"He is a warrior and a fighter and we do not anticipate at this time that he will be incapacitated," Mosbacher told the BBC. "So we are very optimistic about this situation."
However, if he becomes seriously ill and cannot fulfill his duties, the 25th Amendment to the United States Constitution states that the president can hand over power to his vice president, which means that Mike Pence would become interim president.
Pence tested negative in the last test that was carried out, this Friday, according to his spokesman.
Once recovered, Trump could reclaim his position.
This happened during the governments of Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush.
If Pence were incapacitated as well, under the Nancy Pelosi Presidential Succession Act, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, a Democrat, would be next in line, although constitutional experts say such a transfer of power would generate legal battles.
