Where is America going? Donald Trump's legacy
A week before the US elections, forecasts, hopes and analyzes overlap, intensify, in an increasingly dense newsfeed. It seems certain that the dem will win the popular vote, but the point is always the swing states, i.e. those states that could be red or blue: therefore, we cannot say 'beyond a reasonable doubt' that one will win rather than the other. .
However, we can reasonably ask ourselves what could remain of this Trump presidency and what could change. We can analyze the 'possible' or 'probable' Trumpian inheritance from two different points of view, one internal to the US and one external.
Both are united by an unchanged element with respect to the perspective from which these four years of presidency are observed, that is the method. The Trump presidency is part of what we could define as the 'populist' and 'sovereign' momentum which, together with his election in 2016, saw some leaders and issues hitherto considered minority gaining ground. We are thinking, of course, of Brexit, of lepenism in France and of many other phenomena, including household ones. In general, to a 'right-wing' critique of globalism.
Whether you consider it a communicative style (Jagers and Walgrave) or a thin-centered ideology (Mudde), right-wing sovereign populism has profoundly influenced Trumpian policies by sharpening national and international political polarization. Failure to reconfirm it could, perhaps, exhaust the thrust, as it has been for other movements in the face of an electoral debacle. Internally, the Trumpian approach has eroded the Republican Party’s electoral base, strengthening radical positions. Therefore, a possible defeat of the incumbent would force them to a strong theoretical and practical reworking of their strategy. In this regard, some draw a parallel with the long years of Republican triumph from Nixon to Bush Senior - briefly interspersed with the non-reelected President Carter - which prompted the birth of the new dem embodied by Clinton.
The national heritage
From a domestic policy point of view, the three judges appointed to the US Supreme Court, including Amy Coney Barrett, will certainly remain. In a common law system like the United States, the role of the Court is fundamental for the extension or restriction of the constitutional provisions on fundamental rights such as abortion, egalitarian marriage, but also the right to vote. Trump's stated goal is to dismantle some of these rights (abortion and LGBTQA + rights) and Obama's health care reform. Given the lifespan of these appointments, he might succeed even if he doesn't get re-elected. Another fundamental issue is the economic one.
The idea that the economy strengthened during Donald Trump's presidency - and that the current collapse is entirely attributable to the pandemic - remains in the hard core of his electorate, but it is incorrect. If Trump were to continue with a policy of tariffs, to revive the internal market, with the de-taxation of the super-rich and welfare cuts (as he did with MedicAid by removing health care from millions of poor people), the Trumpian legacy it could crystallize in the US system.
The international heritage
With transatlantic relations at an all-time low, a do ut des attitude towards many historic allies and a substantial disengagement in supporting the interests of many European states, the Trump presidency seems to have forcibly brought the founding countries of the European Union closer together. If until now, for the EU, the game had been played on who had managed to get into the good graces of the US presidents, today we see the possibility of a more cohesive Union, at least in its external action, aware of increasingly shared interests also in terms of security and which aspires to develop its own strategic autonomy.
The international stance of the USA, increasingly one-sided, is damaging Italy, France and Germany and many other allies of the continent in turn. Emblematic is what happened with the abandonment of the JCPOA and the choice of a strategy of maximum pressure towards Iran: working on the collapse of the Tehran regime from within, Trump risks destabilizing the Middle East instead of creating order. . The choices in foreign policy, for example towards Russia, China, Iran, Ukraine, are increasing the awareness that Europe needs to find in the United States an ally ready to listen, with whom to share choices, and not a boss. . In the event of a Biden victory we could see a slowdown in these dynamics. It is likely that, through multilateralism, a Biden administration would work to plug the wounds accumulated in recent years, even if on various issues it would be plausible to expect substantial continuity, such as
