Why Trump is not the worst president in history
Contrary to what his detractors predicted, Trump had an excellent economic performance and is the only president in 40 years who did not start a war.
Saturday, November 7, 2020 (Sebastián Lucas Ibarra for VisionDesarrollista.org).
Donald Trump promised in 2015, at the beginning of his electoral campaign, that the US would grow at 4.5% per year, driven by a return to the industrial manufacturing focus of the great world power. Although the country did not achieve that ambitious goal, the controversial Republican president consolidated the longest period of economic growth in the country's history. In June 2019, he broke the record for 121 months in a row, since the 2008 recession. Of course, the coronavirus crisis shattered that brilliant performance. I understand that this last year, so exceptional, must be analyzed separately to make the balance of the management. Be it that of Trump or that of any other president who has had to face the largest global recession in history.
Contrary to what his detractors augured, Trump not only failed to provoke World War III, but was the first American president since 1980 who did not start a war. This is a milestone in itself. But North Korean leader Kim Jong-un went even further and improved relations, relaxing what was once considered one of the world's hot spots. In the Middle East, he promoted the recent peace accords between Israel and some Arab countries in the region, such as Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. As a result of this international policy, Trump was nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize for the second year in a row.
Far from being the villain many predicted, Trump was a president who consolidated the national economy. His policy sought to reverse internal and external trends toward productive relocation. That was the basis of his famous harangue Make America Grate Again (MAGA). It is in this framework that the trade war with China must be analyzed: Trump decided to give a firm response to Beijing.
An inevitable dispute
Criticism of the abandonment of the US manufacturing industry was a linchpin of Trump's campaign, but it also shaped his vision of the country for him. It is true that industry constitutes a small part of the economy - it was 11% of GDP in the second half of 2019 - and the US labor market. However, industry is a key sector because it is the engine of innovation and generates well-paying jobs. In fact, the Barack Obama administration had already warned that those who lose the capacity for innovation are left behind in development. Especially if his rivals have a decided developmental strategy centered on industry innovation. The pre-Trump cycle was one of US relaxation and China's onslaught; with the Republican in the White House an inevitable dispute began.
On the question of the hegemonic struggle, even Trump's detractors - who abound everywhere - acknowledge important achievements. This is the case of Niall Fergusson, historian, professor at Stanford and Harvard, and biographer of Henry Kissinger. Fergusson acknowledges that Trump "has been correct in preventing Huawei from taking over the world's 5G networks." The historian, who predicts a victory for Joe Biden on Tuesday, argues that Trump's greatest merit in that regard was taking a hard line against Beijing and changing the approach of the Obama administration that argued “that there was nothing you could do to stop China ”.
Trump's turnaround is a historic shift, as he shattered consensus on China that dated back to the days of Kisinger and Richard Nixon, Fergusson notes. "He directed the American public into a completely different frame of mind regarding China, including the Democrats," the historian maintains. With Trump, a kind of new cold war with China began and that will not change, regardless of the outcome of the 2020 presidential elections.
The end of the global president
Trump is criticized for his vehement ways. And for controversial decisions, such as the distancing of business partners such as the European Union. Or the departure of international organizations, such as the World Health Organization (WHO). Also due to the lack of global leadership in the face of the COVID-19 crisis. But Trump did what he promised and fulfilled the role that he understands he has to fulfill: to be the president of the United States. He put aside the Hollywood figure of the global president and focused on being the leader of his country. That he turns out to be the first world power.
Trump's emphasis was on the domestic economy. Did you make the resurgence of the industry? Since he became president, manufacturing companies created more than 400,000 jobs across the country, according to the White House website. The result was less than what expected the president, who, true to his style, sought to blame someone else. Trump has criticized the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, which is independent of the decisions of the Executive Power. The FED raised the interest rate in 2018, which led to the president's questions on Twitter, his favorite communication channel. "Manufacturers are being held back by the strength of the dollar, which is being propped up by the ridiculous policies of the Federal Reserve," he tweeted. “The Federal Reserve should lower interest rates, making us competitive with other nations, and manufacturing will skyrocket! The dollar is very strong compared to others ”, he completed.
Unemployment dropped dramatically in the Trump era. Until February 2020, before the COVID-19 crisis broke out, there were 5.78 million unemployed in the US. The unemployment rate reached its lowest since 1969, when Lyndon Johnson ruled. Almost two million less than there were at the beginning of his administration. Poverty also fell during his tenure, reaching 10.5% in 2019, while the average household salary increased by $ 91,652.
The worst president in history?
If you listened to his opponents, Trump was destined to be the worst president in US history. The economic results, however, were better than those of previous administrations. How do they explain it? With inertia. They say that the course had already been set by Obama. And it's true, in some ways like the focus on industrial manufacturing.
The Obama administration had invested in 2012 about $ 2.2 billion to upgrade national manufacturing. Obama also created the Manufacturing USA program, which not only continues to operate but is the emblem of the paradigm shift. Trump gave him his own, particular, histrionic and sometimes controversial, personal stamp. But far from destroying the economy, Trump consolidated it. And in international politics, he regained prominence in the face of the Chinese challenge with firm action.
Trump is certainly not the president Hollywood has us used to. But he also did not turn out to be the fascist villain that his detractors predicted. The model of American society has characteristics that transcend who exercises the first magistracy. Even with his mistakes, more media than in concrete public policies, many voters value his abilities and a particular leadership. So much so that even in the deepest recession in history it is still in force. And no one sensible can call him defeated before the elections as they did four years ago.
