Donald Trump, the electroshock that Europe needed
With the arrival in Washington of an aggressive and unprincipled president, Europeans can no longer be satisfied with being "the idiot of the global village". The Union is finally seeing the possibility of playing a major geostrategic role. On condition of speaking of the same
They sensed it as soon as he was elected, they now know it for sure: with Donald Trump as President of the United States, Europeans will have to "take their destiny in hand". It was Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, who was the first to use this formula, at the time when Donald Trump was threatening to withdraw from NATO. Since then, the American president has multiplied the attacks. On the commercial front, first, with the announcement of taxes on steel and aluminum that are illegitimate under WTO rules. Then in the diplomatic field, notably with the exit from the agreement with Iran. So much so that Donald Tusk, the President of the European Council - the institution which brings together the heads of state and government of the Union -, went out of its hinges in Sofia on Wednesday. "With friends like this, who needs an enemy?" He lambasted.
Period of instability
Of course, the concern is legitimate in the face of the era of instability that the new American unilateralism is opening. But it is also a major opportunity that presents itself for the European Union. A ship built for navigation in calm weather, the Union has demonstrated in recent years, with the adjustments of the euro zone, that it knows how to give itself the means to face tough economic times. It is now up against the wall and must do the same geostrategically.
If American unilateralism can be Europe's chance, it is first of all because it offers Europe a avenue to occupy alone the ground that it has often shared, until now, with Washington: that of emphasizing the primacy of international law over force. Faced with the United States with unpredictable behavior, "the European Union has international law in its DNA and will do everything to protect the institutions which are its guardians", summarizes a senior European diplomat. When Washington tries to unravel the WTO, it is up to Europe to oppose a firm attitude. When the United States withdraws from the Iranian agreement, it is up to Europe to find an alternative path with Tehran, based on honoring commitments. Faced with American threats in trade matters, it is Europe, again, which refuses to bow to what it considers to be unfounded blackmail. Negotiation, yes, but the law of the jungle, no. If identity depends as much on one's perception of oneself as on that sent back to us by others, then this new destabilized international environment gives Europe back the luster it was lacking.
Suddenly, the Old Continent is no longer just this obscure political edifice whose partners are desperately seeking the telephone line. It becomes the pillar of a fragile balance of world forces, the relatively prosperous and still reliable partner. It is to him that the big trading blocks are turning to negotiate free trade agreements. Mercosur, Mexico, Japan, New Zealand, Australia, would all these countries or groups of countries turn to Brussels with the same eagerness if Washington was not now serving as a foil? If the law has long been the lowest common denominator of the European Union, today it is becoming a central element in what defines it on the international scene.
But beyond this element of identity, Donald Trump especially brings Europeans the disruption they needed to raise their level of play. It is in defense that the evolution is most palpable. Long taboo at Community level, the subject is now at the heart of the European project, as evidenced by the Commission's plans for the next multiannual budget.
Brussels is now proposing to devote around twenty billion euros to the subject over seven years, supporting transnational military projects and improving road infrastructure in order to make possible rapid movements of troops from one end of the continent to the other. . This development, which would probably not have been possible without the other major shock of Brexit, shows that the American umbrella no longer really inspires confidence. It cannot be ruled out that it may bring the gradual emergence of a unified European line on the major diplomatic and military issues.
The end of naivety
But in the end, it is above all at the doctrinal level that Donald Trump gives the Europeans a gift: he deals the essential coup de grace to their naivety. If Europe continues to speak the law in the face of the logic of power, it can no longer continue to hide its face in the face of the reality of the balance of power at work on the world stage.
It is again Donald Tusk, the Pole who often dares to say aloud what many think softly, who formulated it in the most trenchant way, in Sofia. “Frankly speaking, Europe should be grateful to President Trump. Because thanks to him, we have lost all illusions. He made us realize that when you need an outstretched hand, it is at the end of your own arm that you will find it, ”tweeted the big boss of European summits.
With the irruption in Washington, that is to say as close as possible to them, of an aggressive and unprincipled president, the Europeans are undergoing the electroshock which finally convinces them that they can no longer be " the idiot of the global village ”, especially in the face of China, which they have long underestimated. That, in a world where the powers collide, there is no other prospect of the future than to end up truly constituting one, at 27. Faced with the "America First", there is no longer any no alternative to "Europe together".
