Why Trump is likely to be re-elected despite polls
According to the polls, the outcome of the presidential elections in the United States is relatively easy to predict. All in all, there are only two candidates and the outcome of the vote in most of the 50 states is already evident.
George H. W. Bush was the only Republican president to have had only one term in over 100 years, but he was seeking a second term after 12 years of Republican rule. Jimmy Carter is the only Democratic president to leave the White House after a single four-year term.
Presidents who run for re-election not only almost always win, but they win with a strong majority. Outgoing candidates win more votes than in their first election campaign. In recent history, only Barack Obama has failed.
Americans are conservative voters in the sense that they do not like change. This can be explained by the limited power of their presidents. Although the latter can boast of their goals and achievements, their ability to bring about political change is very limited.
US presidents have a formidable platform that has grown in reach with the rise of new information technologies, but they are nowhere near as powerful as other elected leaders in democratic countries. The wall that President Donald Trump has often promised along the border with Mexico during his many rallies, for example, is far from complete.
Time limits
Presidents are limited to two terms, a rule introduced after World War II. No one can be elected president more than twice in the United States. This contrasts with other democratic countries like Canada, where Pierre Elliott Trudeau ruled for 16 years, and Germany, where Angela Merkel is still popular after 15 years in power. American voters know Trump's name will appear on the ballots one last time on November 3, 2020.
As in the Canadian Constitution, the United States has a system of federal government that places significant responsibilities on the 50 states of the Union. These states also have representatives directly elected to Capitol Hill as senators and members of the House of Representatives.
This imposes limits on presidential power, as evidenced by the various policies on the management of the Covid-19 pandemic, but also with regard to gun control, capital punishment, education, the law of work and employment.
Just as Canadian prime ministers face demands from the provinces, US presidents face constant opposition from states, especially the most populous: California, Texas, Florida and New York. American presidents never forget that the Civil War broke out in part because the interests of certain states were not sufficiently taken into account in Washington.
In Canada, and in other countries governed by the Westminster model, the Prime Minister holds both executive and legislative power. The Cabinet decides which laws and budgets will be voted on in Parliament, and the Prime Minister is responsible for implementing the decisions as head of government. Any American president probably looks with envy at the enormous power of Canadian prime ministers.
Constant battles
The US president, on the other hand, heads only the branch of government responsible for implementing or enforcing decisions made by lawmakers in Congress. As a result, presidents must consistently fight, lobby and negotiate with Congress.
Congress itself is not monolithic, but divided into two chambers - the Senate and the House of Representatives - which are often at daggers drawn when it comes to legislation and budgets. There is little or no party discipline in Congress, which gives senators and members of the House of Representatives considerable influence over law and policy.
Unlike prime ministers who generally wield more power than US presidents, Canadian MPs probably look with envy on the freedom members of Congress enjoy from their party's priorities and directions.
Not only does Congress pass laws and establish budgets, it has the power to impeach and remove presidents. Two of the last eight presidents - Trump and Bill Clinton - have been impeached, while a third, Richard Nixon, resigned just before the impeachment process.
The House of Representatives and Senate elections also show how reluctant the American electorate is to vote against an incumbent. Less than 10% of members of Congress who stand for re-election are defeated in elections.
All things being relative, the limited term of office, the extended authority of individual states and the constitutional division of powers mean that presidents do not have much leeway.
But Americans at the polls have always adopted the adage that better a bad known than a good that remains to be known. The question is whether this will still be the case next week ...
