Here are the 4 challenges that await Donald Trump now that he is no longer president
Donald Trump, who stepped down as president on Wednesday, still has many challenges ahead in politics, in business and perhaps in the courts as well.
Four years after entering the White House, Donald Trump left Washington on Wednesday morning, just hours before the inauguration of Joe Biden, thus breaking with tradition. Away from power, the Republican billionaire will spend the next few days at his residence in Mar-a-Lago, Florida, where he is unlikely to remain inactive for long. "We will come back one way or another," he said in a speech before his departure. But his future, in politics as in business, could be threatened in the coming weeks in court and in the Senate. Here is what awaits him.
1 - A second trial in the Senate
Unbeknownst to him, Donald Trump will interfere with the start of Joe Biden's mandate. Accused of "incitement to insurrection" by the House of Representatives, which voted on January 13 to impeach the outgoing president for the second time, unprecedented, the billionaire will be tried in the Senate, even if his mandate is finished. Here again, this is completely new.
The trial is expected to begin in the coming days and will occupy part of the work of the senators, which is why Joe Biden has planned to pass a series of decrees to be able to mark the start of his term without having to suffer the delays associated with this procedure in Congress.
During the first Senate trial in early 2020, Donald Trump was easily acquitted, but the situation is different this time. Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell on Tuesday accused the billionaire of "causing" the serious incidents of January 6, and within the party, opponents have emerged since the invasion of Capitol Hill. But for the dismissal of the outgoing president to be voted on, the Senate will have to obtain two-thirds of the votes. It will therefore be necessary to convince 17 Republican senators in addition to the 50 Democrats, which is far from certain.
2 - Legal troubles
On leaving the White House, Donald Trump loses the presidential immunity which has all been sued in the courts for four years. "Considering the number of crimes he has committed, the length of time he has committed them, and the range of jurisdictions in which they have taken place, his potential legal exposure is mind-boggling," New York Magazine wrote. in September. The weekly listed more than a dozen cases involving him or one of his relatives.
The outgoing president could in particular be worried in the Russian affair, which had already marred the first years of his mandate. In this case, he could be accused of having obstructed justice. "If we had been convinced that the president had clearly not committed an offense, we would have said so," said special prosecutor Robert Mueller, who also claimed to have been coerced into the performance of his work by the directives from the Ministry of Justice. With Trump's departure from the White House, the situation could therefore change.
Recently, the phone call made to a Republican official in the state of Georgia asking him to "find 11,780 ballots" could also lead to legal action against Donald Trump. Federal law indeed prohibits "obtaining, depositing or counting ballots known to be materially false, fictitious or fraudulent". The law of the State of Georgia includes two provisions which prohibit "solicitation of electoral fraud" and "conspiracy to commit electoral fraud".
The billionaire could also be worried about his taxes - Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance has already launched an investigation into the matter - or for illegal campaign financing. Two of his closest collaborators during the 2016 campaign, Michael Cohen and Paul Manafort, have already been convicted for this. In recent months, voices have also been raised for the outgoing president to be prosecuted for possible conflicts of interest or for his management of the coronavirus.
3 - Continue to "exist" politically
Donald Trump does not plan to retire that will resemble that of other former presidents. But to come back in 2024 and win would be a huge challenge. Only one president has succeeded in this feat, it is Grover Cleveland, elected from 1885 to 1889 and then from 1893 to 1897. Although some have thought about it, no defeated president has represented himself since. But Donald Trump is a character apart in the history of the United States and he has shown that he can overcome obstacles that are usually crippling.
According to the Gallup Institute, which measures the popularity of presidents since the postwar period, the billionaire leaves power with only 34% approval, a very low number, comparable to that collected by George HW Bush and Jimmy Carter during their departure from the White House. On average over the duration of his mandate, he even collects the lowest approval rate (41%). But Donald Trump's strength lies at the heart of the Republican Party, which he has made his own. Conversely, he obtained 88% approval on average, a record that he shared with Dwight Eisenhower. The outgoing president will therefore remain, at least in the coming months, the most influential figure on the Republican base.
Deprived indefinitely of his Twitter account, which allowed him to address 88 million people with one click, the billionaire can however count on a substantial database built over the past four years and completed in recent months with the Trump 2020 application. However, if the Senate were to remove him, the path to a new campaign would be extremely complicated. Same thing if he was sentenced by justice for the next four years.
4 - Get your business back on track
The attack on Capitol Hill could cost Donald Trump dearly, and not just politically. In recent days, in addition to the social networks that have banned him from their platforms, several companies have distanced themselves from the billionaire and the Trump Organization. The American Golf League has notably decided to cancel the PGA 2022 championship which was to take place in one of its clubs in New Jersey. More serious still, several banks - Signature Bank, Deutsche Bank - cut the bridges with the outgoing president.
According to the Forbes ranking of the richest personalities in the world, Donald Trump had also already suffered the full brunt of the Covid-19 crisis. His fortune is estimated today at 2.5 billion dollars by the magazine, against 3.1 billion at the last score in March 2020 ... Losses caused by the collapse of tourism and the massive drop in real estate rents due to the pandemic. In September, the revelations of the New York Times on Donald Trump's tax returns already highlighted colossal losses and in an investigation published on October 29, the Financial Times mentioned a debt of 1.1 billion including those of its conglomerate.
But as in politics, Donald trump has several assets to bounce back, he has already proven it after his bankruptcy in the 1980s, then with his comeback in the show The Apprentice and, finally, his arrival in power. His presidency has given him unparalleled media exposure and although his rating is very low in many countries, he remains relatively popular in Brazil, India or the Philippines. He also succeeded in forging precious links in Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates which could be of use to him.
To pay off his debts and stay on the front of the stage, Donald Trump could also return to television, a scenario that has been mentioned in recent weeks. Vanity Fair revealed in November that Rupert Murdoch was considering offering him a $ 100 million contract in exchange for publishing his memoir and his own show on Fox News, the billionaire's former favorite channel, now the target of his anger. Unless the outgoing president creates his own medium to bypass Fox News. A bet at its height.
