The Future Of The Republican Party
January 6, 2021 is a day that will represent a significant watershed for American politics. The assault on the Capitol - which, as shown by investigations and reconstructions, could have had even more dramatic consequences - is in fact not only the culmination of Trumpism, but also a point of no return for the Republican Party (and, consequently, also for the Democratic Party). Donald Trump, who will be subjected to impeachment proceedings before the Senate in the coming weeks, played a prominent role in inciting the assault, as recognized by several members of his party.
Faced with the extreme consequences of a phenomenon that has helped to form, how will the Republican Party react, a political party with a long tradition and which can boast Presidents like Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt and Eisenhower? Has Trumpism now become the dominant feature of a political formation that once spoke of federalism, individual responsibility and freedom?
Donald Trump is not a parenthesis in the history of the Party
Starting the analysis, we must immediately clarify a very important point: Donald Trump was not an accident, a parenthesis in the history of the Republican Party. On the contrary, he represented the completion of a decades-long journey, which began mainly with Ronald Reagan, which led to the rise of figures and currents who then paved the way for the 45th President. Beyond the political figures, the change within the conservative world has also been driven by little-known personalities in Italy, but who have played a decisive role. Think radio host Rush Limbaugh, or Roger Ailes, the founder of Fox News.
Long before Trump, the evolution (or involution) of the Republican Party - and, in particular, of its base - had been clearly visible on numerous occasions. Without wanting to go too far back in time, think of Birtherism. This term indicates the movement, based on conspiracy theories, according to which Barack Obama could not become President of the United States because he was not a Natural Born Citizen. According to this theory, Obama was not an American citizen at birth, but a Kenyan citizen, and, for this reason, he could not have become President. It was a naturally unfounded and clearly racist theory, which however caught on very quickly, characterizing both the electoral campaign and the first years of Obama's mandate. In fact, the allegations and theories did not stop even after June 2008, when Obama publicly displayed his birth certificate. At this point, it is important to note that Donald Trump has supported these theories for many years. In 2008, as is known, the Republican candidate was John McCain. During a rally, McCain publicly defended Obama against the accusations of a Republican politician who defined the Democratic candidate as "an Arab" and "a danger to our country".
Even at this juncture, however, the growing tolerance - on the part of the party establishment - towards the most extreme fringes of the conservative world emerged. As proof of this, just think of McCain's choice for vice president, that is Sarah Palin. The unwillingness to face the growing extremism within its own ranks clearly has been made even more evident by the rise of the Tea Party. In fact, in the first years of the Obama presidency, the town halls - that is the public meetings between congressmen and citizens of their districts - became more and more incendiary, above all due to the action of this movement (the Tea Party, precisely) which had its roots in right-wing populism. The movement's anger hit moderate Republicans hard, many of whom were confronted (and sometimes defeated) during the 2010 primary.
Faced with an angry movement that could spell their political end, members of the Republican establishment have largely stood by and have often supported these fringes. For example, in 2011, John Boehner (Speaker of the House from 2011 to 2015), thus replied to a question regarding Birtherism: "It's not my job to tell the American people what to think". This interlocutory position, lacking the courage to clearly condemn a blatant lie, has only contributed to making these extreme fringes increasingly mainstream. Boehner - whom Obama has often described as a good person who could not control his party - knew that the theories of Birtherism were absolutely false but, for political convenience, he decided to maintain an interlocutory position. During the years of the Trump presidency, Boehner's behavior was then emulated by almost the entire party.
The Republican Party and Trump
At the start of the campaign for the 2016 election, the vast majority of Republican candidates harshly condemned Trump. Ted Cruz, for example, called him a pathological liar; Lindsay Graham, on the other hand, described him as a bigot and a xenophobe and added that his victory would bring the Republican Party to ruin. Prior to his victory in the primary, only 13 congressmen had openly supported him. However, during his presidency, the relationship between Trump and the party has often been positive for the President, with the exception of missteps such as the resounding rejection of the health reform (with the deciding vote of John McCain, Trump's strongest opponent in the party). This happened essentially for two reasons.
The first reason is that, once again, members of the establishment thought they could use these extreme fringes to pursue their own agenda. The classic example is Mitch McConnell, Republican leader in the Senate. McConnell, throughout his career, has proven himself to be a Machiavellian politician, always ready to use the Senate and his power to pursue one major goal: the appointment of conservative judges in the courts. McConnell is certainly not a Trumpian, indeed, journalists and analysts have always said that he doesn't like Trump at all. Quite simply, McConnell saw Trump as a means of pursuing his end. Up to a point, the gamble paid off: there are three new judges on the Supreme Court, and hundreds of new judges at the federal level. In addition, a reform was approved that lowered taxes - greatly favoring the wealthy classes and multinationals - another big thing for Republicans. At the same time, the assault on the Capitol and the double defeat in Georgia - which took the Republicans out of control of the Senate - clearly showed the consequences to be expected when forging alliances of a certain type. Now that he is no longer useful to him, McConnell has openly abandoned Trump, harshly condemning his actions. Will he, however, manage to maintain control of his party?
The previous question relates to the second reason for the positive relationship between Trump and many Republicans in Congress: an increasing percentage are truly Trumpian. This happened mostly in the House, with representatives like Jim Jordan, Matt Gaetz, Devin Nunes or Louie Gohmert. Now, following the 2020 elections, the situation has evolved even more. On this occasion, in fact, two representatives who believe in Qanon were elected, namely Lauren Boebert and Marjorie T. Green. Following the assault on the Capitol, 139 Republican representatives (out of 211) and 8 senators (out of 51) voted against the certification of the electoral results. A further demonstration was provided during the impeachment vote in the House.
The second impeachment
After the assault on the Capitol, many multinationals have decided to stop donations to politicians who voted against the certification of the elections. They also include the Republican leader in the House, Kevin McCarthy, and his number two, Steve Scalise. Faced with the extreme consequences of a phenomenon that has been endorsed for too long, some analysts had foreseen a certain distancing from Trumpism. This happened to a lesser extent than expected. During the impeachment debate, McCarthy and other Republicans condemned Trump for his role in the insurgency, but spoke out against impeachment. In the end, only 10 Republicans (including Liz Cheney, number 3 of the Republicans in the House) voted in favor; on the eve, the Democrats had talked about a number ranging between 25 and 30. Furthermore, Liz Cheney - daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney and a very influential figure in the state of Wyoming - risks losing her role in the leadership of the party, as many representatives are unhappy with his vote.
The problem, of course, is not limited to the congress sphere, but is closely connected to the electoral base. The day before the House vote on impeachment, Kevin McCarthy called a virtual meeting with Republican congressmen. During the call, McCarthy asked everyone not to publicly attack party colleagues who would vote in favor of impeachment, because he feared for their safety. On the day of the vote, Democrat Jason Crow said a couple of fellow Republicans had talked to him and cried saying they wanted to vote for impeachment, but had received death threats and feared for their family. . Republican Peter Meijer - first elected in November, and one of 10 who voted in favor of impeachment - also confirmed that many party colleagues had voted against impeachment out of fear, and said the security to protect his family had increased following his vote.
Threats in politics are nothing new; however, the fact that there was an insurrection and that some congressmen did not vote according to their conscience because they were too frightened is certainly alarming. However, the Republican Party shows no great signs of change, except for a few singles. Furthermore, it is not known what they can achieve politically. Liz Cheney is a predominant figure in Wyoming, but do her ideas still have a constituency to turn to? Adam Kinzinger, the only Republican representative to have consistently attacked Trump in recent months, launched the hashtag #RestoreOurGOP; however, which electorate are you referring to? The risk, in fact, is that a large part of the republican base has settled on positions incompatible with those of the party establishment. As evidence that abandoning Trumpism does not seem to be at the top of the party's priorities, Nikki Haley - often regarded as one of the moderate candidates for 2024 - recently gave an interview in which she said that, in her opinion, there is no it is no basis for an impeachment. In the aftermath of the uprising, her words about Trump had been much harsher. A possible explanation is therefore this: several figures within the party, immediately after the insurrection, wanted to turn the page, but saw that the base did not agree. For this reason, these days they are repositioning themselves and providing more interlocutory statements, which do not publicly defend Trump, but neither do they attack him.
The perfect case study: Arizona GOP
Arizona is a traditionally republican state; however, Biden won in November, and Martha McSally was defeated by Mark Kelly. There are therefore two Arizona Democratic senators (albeit very moderate ones) for the first time since 1953. The trend, therefore, seems to favor the Democrats, and the behavior of the Republican Party of Arizona is certainly helping them. In the aftermath of the election, they posted a tweet - featuring a controversial figure involved in the assault on the Capitol like Ali Alexander - asking followers if they were willing to die in Trump's fight against alleged electoral fraud. In the following weeks, they then decided to permanently sever all relations with the Republican Party of the past. In fact, in recent days, censorship motions have been approved against Jeff Flake (former senator), Doug Doucey (current governor of the state), Cindy and Meghan McCain (wife and daughter of John McCain). For them, and for other state sections of the party (including the Texas one), the Republican Party is now Donald Trump's Party. On January 13, the polling institute Morning Consult released a survey of Republican candidates for 2024. While down from November, Trump still was in first place with 42%; Pence was second with 16%, and Donald Trump Jr. third with 6%. Obviously, the polls, four years after the next election, must be carefully calibrated; however, these numbers show that the Donald Trump figure could continue to determine the future of the Republican Party.
