US Presidential. Trump, the worst president in US history?
Donald Trump has yet to board Air Force One for the last time that one wonders how history will judge him. Some observers are already venturing to portray him as the worst president since the country was born.
You will understand that I prefer to keep a "little embarrassment" before making a final or very clear judgment. I'm sure historians won't be kind to him, but we need a little perspective.
It is always risky, and in my humble opinion unprofessional, to rule so early. The assessment cannot be done without considering all the indicators of the context in which the president has worked and the result also depends on the performance criteria that will be used.
I would add that some of Donald Trump's decisions could only be properly analyzed after seeing the consequences in the medium and long term. Without this distance reversing predominantly negative judgments, it will likely add nuance.
If the rifts and threats of violence are currently blinders that limit our horizons, we should not forget that this president governed for two years in a favorable economic context and that he was a voice for many forgotten Americans or angry.
If I consider that his foreign policy has weakened American leadership on the international stage, one can always argue that his rants or his decisions have led to serious reflection within the traditional allies. More than ever, we have understood that we take American contributions for granted and, if only within NATO, we will increase the financial contributions of partners.
If we engage in the game of comparisons right now, who could the outgoing president compare to? If we limit ourselves to traditional polls, Donald Trump is the only president who has never crossed the 50% support mark. If we only look at his latest satisfaction rating, he finds himself at the bottom of the rankings with Jimmy Carter and Harry Truman.
To the last two names we could add those of George W. Bush and Herbert Hoover. If the polls have been particularly bad for these four predecessors of Donald Trump, historians have in each case mitigated the scope of criticism. In the case of Jimmy Carter, he took advantage of his activities after his time in the White House to restore his reputation and develop an aura of old sage.
I still remember the thunderous sarcastic applause from the crowd when George W. Bush left the capital during Barack Obama's first swearing-in. Yet when compared to his Republican successor, he now appears smarter, more likeable, and decent.
While polls have their limits and are often only a "hot" portrait, they also have the weakness of limiting comparisons to recent history. Only some 20th century presidents have had the "privilege" of being assessed in this way.
As these polls do not tell the whole story and do not allow for a broader comparison, I have therefore turned to the judgments of fellow American historians. Usually cautious and distant when asked to speak out so quickly, yet hundreds of them have already spoken. The results of the exercise are hardly more favorable for the one who will move very soon to Mar-A-Lago.
Historians also place him at the bottom of the rankings, in a hot "fight" against James Buchanan and Andrew Johnson. Even with hindsight and perspective, these two Trump predecessors have never found favor with historians.
Buchanan was president from 1857 to 1861, and to sum up his poor handling of the tensions of the day, the Civil War has often been dubbed "Buchanan's War." Johnson, for his part, inherited the heavy burden of succeeding Abraham Lincoln. Less talented and respected, he was dominated by radical Republicans in his day and was the first president to undergo impeachment proceedings, which he would survive with only one voice.
So you can see that it will be difficult to restore the image of Donald Trump. Note also that I have deliberately avoided limiting the comparisons to the scandals that marked his tenure, so as to flesh out the comparisons with his predecessors. If we limited ourselves to this one indicator, Trump would "win" hands down.
And you? How do you assess this presidency? I'm curious to read your arguments and see your ranking. An activity like any other to pass the time before tomorrow's swearing-in.
