Because Trump's social media network will be an epic failure
I've seen a lot of stupid startup presentations in my day, but a Donald Trump social media network takes the stupid cake.
I can only imagine that it is exactly two months before the FBI's birthday and that Team Trump is determined to convince the old agency that it is a perfect present this year. Or maybe Trump just likes to lose money.
For those out of date, here's a video from Trump's spokesperson discussing the matter yesterday:
Here's the meat from Miller’s raid:
I think we will see President Trump return to social media with his platform in about two to three months. And that's something I think will be the hottest ticket on social media. It will completely redefine the game and everyone will wait and watch to see what exactly President Trump does.
I honestly don't think Trump is stupid enough to start his own social media network (Miller figured things out with "I want to think"). I am more inclined to believe that Gab or Parler or something will start over with a partnership with Trump.
But I do really hope Trump founds his network. As a journalist, it's always nice to say "I told you so". And like I said, the FBI would love it. I don't see how someone with basic knowledge of the technology market can even imagine for a second that this is a viable concept.
Here because:
- If the network was technically sound, innovative, and viable without Trump, you'd have to be an idiot to start it. Trump automatically halves your potential US user base and gets worse in non-US markets.
- A Trump social media network is not to be censored (or what's the point?). But you can't be both anonymous and uncensored if you want to avoid being completely bothered by trolls, robots, and bad actors.
- If anonymous logins are not allowed, the FBI will park it. And it's safe to say that a Trump network doesn't have the resources to keep the US government at bay like Apple does.
- Without self-regulation, an online business is not sustainable as only a limited number of hosts are available on the scale needed to support enough users to make a profit.
- There aren't enough hardcore and conservative advertisers for a Trump-branded social media network to operate under the traditional advertising-based social media paradigm.
The main problem with a Trump network is the same as any ad-based venture: you get more honey flies than you try to convince people that the US government has been overthrown by a conspiracy against you.
It may seem like I'm joking here, but I'm not. That is the question. Trump's branding is based on convincing people that he is the rightly elected president of the United States with no evidence to support that claim. The number of advertisers willing to pay to support this idea is certainly small.
The only positive here is that Trump is very popular and people love to see what he will do next. The downside is that it could be linked to another violent coup attempt at any time. Although indirectly, until he recognizes the absolute legitimacy of the current US administration, he will be inextricably linked to acts of violence committed on his behalf by those who believe in his groundless lies.
And as long as that's the case, his social media network can't survive on traditional advertising revenue.
Of course, there are other ways to finance a social media company as well. Trump could appeal to large conservative investors or develop a subscription-based model. But none of them are sustainable beyond a few months.
Social media companies need a huge user base to be profitable. And if you're already limiting your audience to people who don't find Trump uncomfortable, then it's a little silly to further limit him to people who are willing to pay for social media.
Trump may have conservative support at the top, but his main supporters are the workers who donate to his political causes. Like tithing in the Church, these supporters may not give in large quantities, but they give often. And just like tithing in the Church, the ratio changes completely when a nominal fee is charged.
You can't keep a social media network running with just VC investments. Without advertising money or a massive subscriber base, the network is already doomed. Furthermore, there will be greater problems than convincing donors or users to defend the privilege of supporting Trump:
But let's put on our cool hats and our clown nose and pretend we're a Trump-backed social media network could make a profit. The next problem: Trump's brand is anti-censorship.
Unfortunately for Team Trump, the reality of running a social media network is that you have two options: ban people from shouting "fire" in a crowded theater or live with a paradigm that a large percentage of them do. just to scream "fire" in crowded theaters.
If you don't have any rules against harassment, all you have is harassment. This is just Internet 101. You can't stop people from arguing. And unless you ban liberals or censor anti-conservative rhetoric, you'll have a platform flooded with people opposing Trump, his views and his supporters.
The alternative is a censored network backed by Donald Trump, which would be really funny. Especially since conservatives are known for not understanding the right to freedom of expression.
So uncensored? The Trump team must do what no other platform has been able to do: find a company willing to host an uncensored social media network. Which probably won't happen, at least not in the United States.
At least something must be Rules that prevent, for example, the recruitment of minors, the promotion of violence and the sale of illegal weapons and drugs. And, as Parler found the hard way, if you have policies against illegal activity and the promotion of violence, you need to demonstrate that you have the ability to quickly deal with users who violate your regulations.
Trump is going to need a damn good AI team to create some powerful content moderation algorithms. It is one thing to label your network as conservative, and quite another to relate it directly to the face of the right-wing conspiracy theorists movement. This is a nice target for bad actors.
In order for the Trump-backed network to do the bare minimum to get long-term hosting, it is “censored” just like Twitter and Facebook.
And we still don't even understand what would happen if the US government gave the Trump network the same treatment Apple has received for years. If every hate crime court in their district across the country starts submitting their entire database of network user records, Team Trump will be better prepared for a never-ending battle against law enforcement.
But, hey, don't let anyone stop me from signing up. It might sound like a bad idea on paper, but if you look at it from the FBI's point of view, what could be better than a social media network designed to bring together millions of anti-government conspiracy theorists on one website?
