Towards the end of Donald Trump's bellicose mandate vis-à-vis Iran?
Two months away from the handover with Joe Biden, can Donald Trump play his hotshot with Iran? According to the New York Times, the defeated US president asked his advisers, who dissuaded him, if he could bomb an Iranian nuclear facility.
New US sanctions have fallen on Iran. This time, it is the Iranian Minister of Intelligence and the Bonyad Mostazafan Foundation, which manages the funds from the property of the former royal family confiscated in the aftermath of the Islamic Revolution, which were targeted on Wednesday, November 18. A few hours earlier , Tehran had however declared ready to return “automatically” to the respect of its nuclear commitments if the future administration of Joe Biden lifted the sanctions. But the Trump administration seems to have decided otherwise, toughening up its tone a few weeks before leaving the White House in January 2021.
Far from having slowed down the strategy of "maximum pressure" towards Tehran, the victory of his opponent Joe Biden in the November 3 election, pushes Donald Trump to play his last trumps on Iranian ground.
Just five days after his electoral defeat, the billionaire US gathered his military advisers on Nov. 12 in the Oval Office to ask them about the possibilities of hitting Iran preemptively, the New York Times has revealed. These senior officials, including Vice President Mike Pence, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and General Mark A. Milley, Chief of Staff of the United States Army, dissuaded him, warning him on the risk of triggering a vast regional conflict.
"Secret operations against Iran"
According to the American daily, Donald Trump wanted to target the Iranian nuclear site of Natanz, located in central Iran. It was at this facility that the International Atomic Energy Agency indicated on November 11 - the day before Donald Trump's meeting - that Iran's stock of uranium was now 12 times greater than what was cleared by the nuclear deal from which Washington withdrew in 2018. While the amount is worrying, it is far less than the amount of fuel Iran had before former US President Barack Obama concluded the nuclear agreement of July 2015 with Tehran, specifies the New York Times.
This episode says a lot about the state of mind of the departing US president: would he leave a poisoned gift for his successor? A situation that worries some national security officials, especially since Donald Trump sacked Defense Secretary Mark Esper and other senior Pentagon officials last week to replace them with figures closer to him, removing thus a bulwark in the chain of command against his impulsive orders. Doubts, expressed privately, are emerging within the Defense Ministry "as to whether the president could launch operations, open or covert, against Iran or other adversaries at the end of his term," said the Minister. New York Times.
Restrained by Mike Pompeo and General Milley over a missile attack on Iranian territory, the US president could also consider hitting Iranian property, or his allies, including militias in Iraq, advance the New York Times , based on testimonials from senior officials.
Sale of weapons to countries hostile to Tehran
Behind the scenes, Donald Trump took action in another way, authorizing the sale of advanced weapons to regional enemies of Tehran. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo formally informed Congress of the sale including 50 stealth fighters, drones and ammunition to the UAE on November 10. A deal he presented as participation in efforts against the common adversary Iran.
Abu Dhabi had long sought to obtain these F-35 fighters, difficult to detect by radar and capable of surgical strikes. Unsuccessfully so far, faced with Israel's historic opposition to selling this device to other countries in the Middle East in order to maintain its technological superiority. But the Jewish state agreed to the transaction, favoring two birds with one stone, the normalization of diplomatic relations with the Emirates, and yet another threat to its Iranian foe.
The US Congress had already tried to block an arms sale to Saudi Arabia and the Emirates last year, but failed to muster a two-thirds majority to bypass Donald Trump's vetoes. This time, three US senators - including two Democrats - launched an initiative on November 18 to block the sale, fearing “a dangerous arms race.” Even if the three parliamentarians manage to find a simple majority in Congress to block this sale, they will then have to find a qualified two-thirds majority in the Senate and the House of Representatives to override a veto by President Donald Trump.
The worst is yet to come, fear American officials interviewed by the New York Times. They are particularly nervous as January 3 approaches, the anniversary of the US strike that killed Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, in 2020 on Iraqi soil. The ultraconservatives in Tehran and the Revolutionary Guards have not forgotten the death of the former head of Iranian forces, Al-Quds, an elite unit of the Revolutionary Guards. The security of US embassies in the region has been stepped up, and Mark Pompeo has warned that the death of an American would be a red line that could spark a military response.
