Will Donald Trump be a candidate in 2024?
Donald Trump could seek a new term as President of the United States in 2024. But several obstacles could stand in his way.
Still popular with Republican voters, Donald Trump suggests he could run for the White House again in 2024. But, threatened by legal trouble and criticized for his role in the murderous assault on Capitol Hill, he could see obstacles in the way of a new candidacy.
"With your help, we will take back the House of Representatives, we will take back the Senate, and then a Republican president will make a triumphant return to the White House - I wonder who it will be," said, teasingly, the 45th president of the United States on Sunday in front of a crowd of activists who came to listen to it at the CPAC meeting, a major meeting of American conservatives.
"He will come back," read the flag of one of the fans who eagerly awaited him outside in Orlando.
A return to power would be almost unprecedented. Only one president has managed to secure two non-consecutive terms in American history: Democrat Grover Cleveland, elected in 1884, then defeated in 1888 before winning the White House again in 1892.
And an informal poll of the conquered CPAC audience reported a lukewarmness that surprised. While 95% of participants believed the Republican Party should continue to follow Donald Trump's agenda, only 68% said they would like to see him run again in 2024.
Judicial front
The former Republican president was acquitted in February in his Senate trial for "inciting insurgency" by his supporters in the Jan.6 assault on Capitol Hill.
If criminal prosecution for this attack on the seat of Congress seems unlikely, his judicial horizon remains busy.
In New York, the billionaire is the subject of an investigation that initially focused on payments made before the 2016 presidential election to two suspected mistresses. It is now also examining possible allegations of tax evasion, insurance fraud, or bank fraud. His accounting firm has submitted eight years of tax and banking declarations to justice.
A Georgia prosecutor also announced in early February the opening of a preliminary criminal investigation into "attempts to influence electoral operations" in that state.
Commercial Empire
The real estate mogul may decide to focus on reviving his family empire, the "Trump Organization", battered during his tenure marked by deep divisions that have damaged the "Trump" brand.
For example, during his presidency, residents fought to remove his name from the facade of their New York apartment building.
Its business, which focuses on real estate and hotels, has also been hit by the Covid-19 pandemic.
2022, decisive turning point
“We are not going to create a new party, we are not going to divide our power. We will be united and powerful as ever, ”the ex-president said on Sunday.
Quite a triumphant speech that could collapse depending on the results of the midterms parliamentary elections of November 2022.
Because, while he says he does not like "losers", Donald Trump has in fact three Republican defeats to his name: the loss of the House of Representatives in 2018, that of the Senate in January, and the White House.
Whoever presents himself as a kingmaker, courted even in his luxurious residence in Florida by prospective candidates, will be expected at the turn.
If Republicans manage to retake the Senate and / or the House thanks to candidates dubbed by Donald Trump, the path to a new presidential candidacy will appear wide open.
If he fails, his Republican opponents, already outraged by the recent loss of the Senate they blame him for, will emerge strengthened to stand in his way.
Republican rivals
If his hold on the party remains dominant, Republican candidates are already sharpening their electoral arguments.
Some, loyal supporters of Donald Trump, remain discreet as they wait for what he decides to do, such as Senators Josh Hawley, Ted Cruz or South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem.
Others have sharply criticized her for her role in the assault on Capitol Hill, such as former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley and Senator Ben Sasse.
Its former vice-president, Mike Pence, could also line up in the race.
Additionally, at 78 in 2024, the billionaire's age and shape will influence his or her decision.
