Donald Trump's weather fantasies
Trump is surrounded by business friends who believe that by denying climate change they will be able to recapture the days of wealth and glory of coal, oil and gas. But they are wrong.
Legend has it that King Canute took his flatterers to the sea, to show them that not even a king could command the waves, that the laws of nature are more powerful than the commands of men. So much the worse for Donald Trump, who really believes that his decrees can hold back the waves.
More than sycophants, Trump is surrounded by business friends who, like his foolish and ignorant king, believe that by denying climate change they will be able to recapture the days of wealth and glory of coal, oil and gas. They are wrong. Greed will not reverse anthropogenic climate change, and Trump's decrees will not stop the global abandonment of fossil fuels and the adoption of low-carbon energy sources, such as wind, solar, hydro, nuclear, geothermal, and so on.
The last fantasy has to do with climate change. Trump signed decrees with which he, he assures, will reverse the policies of former President Barack Obama on the matter. This includes measures such as repealing the rules of the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Clean Power Plan; repeal regulations for the control of methane emissions caused by the production and distribution of oil and gas; and end the regulatory use of the "social cost of carbon," a metric introduced by the EPA to gauge the economic value of climate damage caused by the emission of each additional ton of carbon dioxide. In less than a hundred days, we have learned that Trump is a man who lives in a fantasy world. He signs decrees, barks orders, posts midnight tweets, all for nothing. The facts (the real ones, not the "alternative" ones that he promotes) do not stop interfering with his plans. There is the physics; the law; the courts; procedural rules; and voters, of whom only 36% approve of Trump's performance. There is also China, which scores a technological and diplomatic victory every time the incompetent president of the United States makes a mistake.
According to Trump, these new measures will create jobs in the coal sector, give the United States "energy independence" and encourage economic growth. In addition, Trump recently authorized the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline from Alberta (Canada) to the state of Nebraska, with the aim of linking the oil sands of that country with US refineries. Obama had rejected the project, because it would exacerbate global warming.
Trump's primary motivation is to serve the economic interests of America's extractive industries, which provide abundant campaign finance and media support for Republicans in Congress and in state governments. In short, it is corruption: handing over public policy in exchange for campaign funds.
Those implicated in this dishonorable conduct include ExxonMobil, Chevron, the United States Chamber of Commerce, Koch Industries, and nearly all Republican congressmen, who in order to ensure the flow of campaign funds are willing to publicly appear ignorant. , by denying the climatology and global warming. Trump may be foolish enough to believe what he says or not, but in any case, he knows that his decrees are perfect for Republican power.
But like many other Trump decisions, this one is more noise than nuts, more bravado than reality. First of all, Trump can't stop the waves (or rising ocean levels when it comes to global warming). The science is real, even if Trump isn't afraid to flaunt his scientific ignorance.
Second, the world knows that it is real. In 2015, all UN member states signed the Paris climate agreement. The planet has just had the three warmest years on record. The oceans are warming rapidly (as recently shown by 93% damage to the Australian Great Barrier Reef). Trump's cynicism and ignorance will not convince anyone or win him a following outside the United States.
Furthermore, Trump's actions will face lawsuits in court, and he is almost certain that he will lose them. They will excite a few voters in coal states like West Virginia and earn the praise of Koch Industries, but they will not override the EPA's regulations on CO2 emissions.
They are rules protected by the Clean Air Act in the United States, and Trump is lacking votes in Congress (by a wide margin) to change it. And American voters, by a wide margin, support replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy. Even with the corruption of American politics, the opinion of the voters still counts.
Trump will not be able to revitalize the dying coal sector either, because today everything is against him. Coal causes respiratory diseases in miners and residents of areas near power plants that use it as fuel; releases more CO2 per unit of energy than oil and gas; and (the same as all fossil fuels) it is less and less competitive with respect to non-polluting energies such as wind, solar and hydro, among others.
In terms of employment, as coal mining is increasingly automated, today the hiring of the entire sector reaches less than one hundred thousand of the more than 150 million American workers. Coal mining will not significantly affect future employment trends in the United States, much to Trump's disappointment.
For the same reason, I bet a project as expensive as the Keystone XL pipeline will never get done. Given the urgent global need to switch to clean energy sources, the world does not need Canada's oil sands, expensive to exploit, highly polluting and remote from markets. Regardless of Trump's approval, it's difficult for anyone to want to invest in a pipeline that would likely be bankrupt long before it can begin to be used.
Trump's decisions will not affect China, Europe, and not even the Gulf region. China is determined to reduce CO2 emissions, purify the air in its cities and put itself at the forefront of the 21st century in the use of non-polluting technologies such as photovoltaic cells and electric vehicles. Europe is getting closer and closer to becoming a zero-emission economy. And the Gulf countries are creating significant renewable energy infrastructure, especially solar.
In the end, we may marvel at the stupidity of the American president and the corruption of the Republican Party, but we do not believe that Trump's climate fantasies will change world reality or affect the implementation of the Paris climate agreement.
