Is Donald Trump the best or worst president the United States has ever had?
Two opposing views on crucial elections for the destiny of the United States and the world
Two visions of the United States of two Spanish politicians who know the American reality in depth. In the Conversations with El Independiente sponsored by the Cajasol Foundation, the former Socialist Industry Minister Miguel Sebastián and the spokesman for the Vox parliamentary group in the Congress of Deputies, Iván Espinosa de los Monteros, have analyzed the management of the US president, Donald Trump, on the eve of a crucial election for America and for the world.
Espinosa de los Monteros, with an MBA in the United States, argues that Trump has been "good for the United States and for the world," while Sebastián, a doctorate in Economics at the University of Minnesota, argues that he is a "denialist" president and that the world will be better if it does not repeat mandate. The debate was moderated by the director of El Independiente, Casimiro García-Abadillo.
Balance of Trump's mandate
Iván Espinosa de los Monteros: «The balance of these almost four years of Trump's government is very positive for Americans from different points of view. I separate Trump as a person, his personality, he is a very controversial character, from the data. There is no doubt that he has been very good at creating jobs, especially among Hispanics and African Americans. They are at the highest employment levels in history. For the Stock Market he has been very good. He has grown 50%, even taking into account the covid ».
“From the point of view of the hegemony of the United States in the world, he has played a prudent role. He is the first president who has not gone practically anywhere in the world. He has an aversion to risking American lives elsewhere. He at the same time has had successes in foreign policy… in North Korea, in the confrontation with China. He has had unprecedented success in the Middle East negotiating between Israel and the Emirates. He has played a very important role in undoing the Iran deal. He has reversed what Obama did in Cuba, very damaging to the US and to the Cuban people. And he has been very clear with Venezuela. Ultimately, the role of the US continues to be enormously important.
“From the social point of view he has been a very brave president. He has made decisions absolutely contrary to the progressive consensus. He has defended the right to life. He has defended law and order in US cities against states where there have been enormous disorders such as Washington or Seattle, where there has been an authentic Marxist revolution in the streets, where dangerous movements such as Black Lives Matter have put the lives of people at risk. many people and there are people who have died.
"The overall balance, if we look at the economic and social point of view, the role of the US in the world, or the battle of ideas, has been very positive."
"I would give it an 8, an extraordinary grade for a politician."
Miguel Sebastián: «It is difficult to take stock. What would the world have been like without Trump? It's hard to imagine. We can say that he has been the president of the five denials. The first denialism is that of the covid. He was de-dramatized, downplayed, mocked, governors who applied measures were persecuted. The result is that the US is the ninth country in the world in deaths, in terms of population, and the tenth in cases. The second denial is that of climate change. The US has lost an enormous opportunity in the development of renewable energies, electric mobility ... Third, the denial that China has become the first country in the world. We all have to accept it. Denying it is of no use. Trying to avoid it with protectionist measures or tariffs is useless. The American empire must accept it and we must all adapt. The fourth denial is that of inequality. There are debates about how to avoid it. In the United States it has gotten worse. We have seen it with racial minorities. Not recognizing that we have a racial problem is an absurd denial. Also with women and LGTBI minorities. The fifth is the US industrial decline. It already happened in the 70s ... Now the fighting against 5G, a delay in artificial intelligence and biotechnology, is going to put the US in a difficult situation in the coming years ».
"Trump's balance sheet is bad for him, bad for the US and for the world. There are few presidents who have not had a second term, like Carter or Bush Sr. Trump I hope he is a president, one of the few, not re-elected, although it will be difficult. And that will be good for the world.
I'll give it a zero. The average will come out 4 ».
Pandemic management
Iván Espinosa de los Monteros: «It is not clear whether the management benefits or harms him. You cannot be blunt. It is a federal nation. The states reserved rights and independence. Health is essentially in the hands of the states. There is no doubt that the states manage health, unlike Spain where every day we wake up wondering who is in charge here. In the US, the states are responsible. I don't like this, but it is so. The three worst-rate states with the worst Covid infection are Democrats. One of them is New York, the most anti-Trump state.
“As for his personal management, it is debatable whether it will harm him or not. It has ended up infected. It has gone quite well and he will offer the Americans his treatment. He has made a weakness a possible virtue. His own experience will have a relative impact and in any case will reinforce those who thought him to vote and alienate those who did not.
Miguel Sebastián: «Knowing that he is a very mediatic president and that he controls propaganda very well, I believe that he is going to benefit him because if not, he would not have done it. He has done it because he has been told that it is one of the last cartridges of him to try to win. I find it obscene that he presumes to have come out of Covid thanks to a drug that is not authorized by the FDA [Food and Drug Administration]. It is an insult to the Americans. Many Americans also could not have access if it had been authorized because they do not have free health ... I hope the message is understood and I hope that it hurts you. He believes that he favors him ... It is grotesque that a person who said that this was a flu ... now claims to be a winner against the evils that come from China ».
Trump ‘populist’ or populist
Espinosa de los Monteros: «Trump is the president of our time who least submits to what his advisers say ... They wanted to take away Twitter but he said no. He does not allow himself to be advised. He is guided by his instinct and it is what he has guided him here.
«He has known how to make opportunities out of weaknesses. They all laughed at him. Obama said that he would never be president. He is an atypical president. He doesn't play by the usual rules of the game. He plays the world of globalism versus patriotism.
«In English he is a populist, he seeks to connect with the average American, the popular clamor. Among us "populist" has a derogatory connotation. He gets the vote from the Midwest and non-urban areas. The average American is his voter.
Miguel Sebastián: «He is a book populist. He uses media that are favorable to him to spread lies, he lies about the data, he attacks the media that are not related. He blames the problems he has on globalization and free trade. He defends protectionism.
“A good part of the problems we have had in the world has been caused by Trump. It is significant to see what has happened to world trade.
"It amazes me how those who are against some populists defend Trump."
Polarization and racism
Miguel Sebastián: «Trump has polarized American society and he thinks that polarization benefits him. I think that this radical position of Trump is going to mobilize many people who did not think to vote (due to loss of faith) and he is going to vote ».
«This fracture comes from polarization and it is not by chance. It comes from a political strategy. His advisers, I think there are, they think it suits him ».
«In the media, little progress has been made in trying to give more weight to more independent media. There is a battle against each other ... Some say that there may be a new civil war, I do not think so. But it is a major social conflict. In part it comes from denialism. If we accept that there is a problem with employment, inequality, we would not have this confrontation. But if we say that it is because China is doing this or Mexico is stealing our jobs… a very worrying tension is generated.
Iván Espinosa de los Monteros: «There is polarization in the United States and in Spain. I do not agree with the causes and consequences. Polarization is what the left wields when the right defends itself against attack. The left attacks and the right has to remain passive. When the left divides, it assumes that the right is not going to respond. When it responds, it is fragmenting us. But I defend myself. I am the resistance. I am not willing to take on your progressive mantras because my ideas are better. It has been shown throughout the history of mankind that the idea of freedom, in the world of economics, personal life, media, conservative liberal ideas have made the 21st century and the West the best place and time to live, an idea that has made Europe the best place to live in history. It is because of ideas that people like Trump defend. And despite ideas that Biden defends. It is much better for the world.
“The employment rate is the highest in history for women, blacks, Latinos. The median income for Hispanics is about $ 30,000. Hispanics are the first minority and have advanced in per capita income.
"The problem with racism is not Trump's: he's only been around for four years. The ways of attacking the problem of racism differ greatly whether one is on the left or on the right. If you are from the left, you support a movement financed by Venezuela ... The model of the right is law and order: you have the right to demonstrate, but not to kill people. Law and order in the face of chaos is the choice they have in the United States. "
Miguel Sebastián: «If law and order is to put a knee on the neck of a detainee, it is a very sad interpretation of law and order. It is clear that the US is the richest country in the world and hopefully it will be for many years. It does not match the social situation. Life expectancy has dropped a lot. It is a horrible result. In many areas of the US the social situation has receded in recent years.
“I have not seen in the media that the police could not enter the sites because the BLM Marxists were there. I have seen armed targets who entered shooting and killing. They lead us to a situation of polarization where there will be cases like the ones you say but I have seen many like the ones I say. That is not law and order.
Iván Espinosa de los Monteros: «In Seattle there is a self-managed area called CHAZ, which is the progressive ideal, an area ceded without law or order. They were like that for two months. With the acquiescence of the very progressive mayor of Seattle…. There have been people who have ended up dead on both sides. Much has been said about this criminal who ended up dead, but not about a white child who is killed in his garden for being white.
The Wall Street vote
Iván Espinosa de los Monteros: «Wall Street will not vote for Trump under any circumstances. Trump makes the difference between the elites and the people and that is why they call him a populist. The elites are not from Trump, they are from the Democratic Party. The billionaires. The elites are Pelosi [Speaker of the House of Representatives] who skips confinement to go to a very expensive hairdresser… Trump is the black beast of the financial and business elites, who have never supported him. Instead, he is the president of the American Workers…. In Spain too: the elites support a government of the left and the rank and file know that in Spain they also do better with a government of the right ”.
Miguel Sebastian. “I do not know of studies on who the elites vote for… I do know studies that indicate that people with a higher level of education do not tend to vote for populist parties. There are elites who will do well economically but are not willing to tolerate setbacks in freedoms, in social and individual rights, a shutdown of the economy with tariffs, mistreatment of immigrants that separate children from their parents ... Many people dislike it this, even if they have money and are doing well. There is an educational level above which it is difficult to vote for Trump.
The decision on the Supreme
Iván Espinosa de los Monteros: What American has lost a single right in the last four years?
Miguel Sebastián: «We are about to avoid it ... The atrocity that has been done with the Supreme Court ... It is not acceptable that 15 days before an election an election is held. It has to be done with a consolidated president. It happened with Obama.
“What had been achieved with the right of women to decide about motherhood or the right of people of the same sex can be ruined. If the left does not mobilize, these rights will be lost. There are many concerned people in the US, also people from the center and Republicans.
Iván Espinosa de los Monteros: «On the borders: the president who raised the most kilometers of border is called Bill Clinton, the second, and the third, by far Trump. He has done nothing that Democrats did not do before. He is well done. A nation has the right to defend its borders. We can discuss what is the most humane way to return people to their countries of origin. I have left with a visa, with permission ».
"On rights, the issue of abortion is tolerated by a Supreme Court ruling, Roe versus Wade. The charges are for life and thus you make sure that they are independent. When someone dies, you have to fill that charge. But it has to be confirmed by the Senate. Obama couldn't because there was no majority in the Senate. Trump has the right and the obligation. I listened to the hearings and it is very brilliant.
Miguel Sebastián: «Turning around something that is already accepted is as if a party came here and abolished homosexual marriage».
Iván Espinosa de los Monteros: "The law the norm is above ideas, however progressive they may be."
"The Democratic Party, if it wins, wants to add judges to the Supreme Court ... Now the Democrats want to change the rules because it does not favor them ... If you do not agree, it is about the regression of freedoms. That is the progressive consensus.
Immigration and the Latino vote
Iván Espinosa de los Monteros: «I return to the principles: law and order. Few laws and they are enforced. The US is a country made up of immigrants. There are almost no natives ... In the US almost all are immigrants. There was a time when it was decided what the rules to immigrate were. There is an immigration process. There is a law: those who comply may enter. The US is a country open to immigration and has the right to choose who enters.
“Hispanics who flee from countries that have suffered the rigors of socialism or communism will never vote for socialism. Never will a Cuban vote for socialism. Nobody who has lived socialism or communism is going to vote for socialism voluntarily…. It is logical that immigrants who come from socialist or communist countries that are failed states seek to escape from the socialists. How are they going to vote for an absolutely radicalized Democratic Party, heeled to the left and given over to movements like Black Lives Matter financed by Venezuela? That is why many Latinos, many Hispanics, especially those who have rebuilt their lives, want to preserve the opportunity and that no one impose the regime from which they have fled.
Miguel Sebastián: «The United States has an immigration problem. So does Europe. The key is how to approach it. With law and order it is not resolved. The permeability of borders cannot be avoided. The successful model was to allow an industry to develop in Mexico. Much of the American industry moved to Mexico ... But Trump has taken that for his America First. His policies against free trade and industry outsourcing worsen immigration. Mexicans need to make a living and if they can't find it in their country they will try to emigrate.
“Latinos from Cuba and Venezuela will hardly vote for Biden if they only see media that identify Biden with socialism and communism. Everyone knows that Biden is a communist ... in disguise. In those groups there will be a bias in favor of Trump, but in general the Latino community will vote for Biden.
Impact on foreign policy
Iván Espinosa de los Monteros: «Trump presents himself as president of the United States, not of the world. His responsibility is to improve the lives of Americans. America First is a very good slogan. It doesn't just say America, but Americans first. NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) has improved it for the US. He intends to improve it with export. The arrival of Trump and the continuity of him is good for freedom, for the West and the values that have made the West the best to live in ... China is a huge power. Some parts of China's expansionary policy must be resisted, especially an illiberal political system, a trading system based on the fact that I export everything, but do not allow it to be imported, there is no exchange of currency ... »
“China does not subject its production system to any rule. Trump has pointed it out. And he was the first to stand up ... In the four years of Trump it is the first time that the number of employees in the industry has grown.
«In the USA it is being manufactured again. Blue collar jobs are back in factories. Thanks to Trump… It is an unprecedented success for American industry.
“In the Middle East he has achieved something that was impossible for John Kerry [Secretary of State in Obama's second term]. Kerry said that an agreement was necessary for Israel with other Arab countries to go through Palestine. Trump has shown it. For that alone he would deserve two Nobel Peace Prize winners. If they gave it to Obama who bombed cities ... But the Nobel Peace Prize goes to Rigoberta Menchú and Obama ».
Miguel Sebastián: «There was an incipient process of democratic transition in Cuba that with Trump has stopped. In recent years there was a plan to democratize Cuba and get out of the Cuban dictatorship. In Venezuela there is no plan. He does not have a plan to solve the knot of such an important country.
«He has left Latin America at the feet of the horses. These central banks cannot create liquidity… I am not saying that you have to surrender to China, but it is the new world leader. If he is a threat, we can meet Americans and Europeans… No, Trump has attacked Europe and gets into a trade war with Europe. But what worries him is the American trade deficit, which has worsened under Trump. Which is paradoxical.
“His thing is that the US should approach Europe to face as a team the threats that come from China and define what they are. The truth is that when we have needed masks they have come from China and they are doing the same with Africa and Latin America. That is why they are going to become the world leader. They do not leave countries at the feet of horses. They want to bring Europe to their side and that is why they have traveled the Silk Road. It will be a new Trump mistake.
Who will win?
Miguel Sebastián: «Hillary won in 2016 in the number of votes… I am worried because I have not just seen the translation in the electoral vote polls, which is what is relevant. It will be very close and probably on day 3 we will not have the results.
Iván Espinosa de los Monteros: «It will be a very close election. Too close to call. Voting by mail is going to be very important. It may take several days. In the year 2000 it happened. It depended on fewer than 400 votes… States with a concentration of the rich always vote Democrats. Trump will take the Midwest and the rust belt. Texas looks like it may be a Republican but it's not clear.
“Some will give more battle: Texas, traditionally Republican, now is not so clear. There are six key states: North Carolina, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Florida. Florida may be the place where votes are being counted for several days.
The best and worst of Trump and Biden
Miguel Sebastián: "The best thing about Trump is that he is going to end up uniting us all ... against him."
Iván Espinosa de los Monteros: «Biden is the oldest candidate in history. He will be 78 years old on the first day of his presidency… It is striking that they are all very old… Biden is a candidate that the US already knows a lot about. He has been in politics all his life. He has made all kinds of mistakes and also successes. He has had a great capacity for self-improvement. I and many people are afraid that he is not in sufficient physical and mental condition to face four years of presidency. And the election of vice president is key. And the candidate, Kamala Harris, is a case to study carefully. She is a candidate that generates uncertainty and insecurity in the United States.
