Trump may run for president even if indicted by a grand jury
Could Donald Trump run again for president of the United States if he is impeached? A grand jury will determine the charges against you or those close to you, posing new risks to your ambitions heading into 2024.
Qualifying the formation of that instance as "the continuation of the greatest witch hunt in the history of the United States", the magnate recalled his high levels of popularity among Republicans and suggested that for this reason there are those who want to prevent him from fighting for a new term.
It is "interesting" that the announcement of the formation of this grand jury occurs the same day that a "poll is published that indicates that I am far ahead in the Republican presidential primaries and in the 2024 elections," he wrote on Tuesday for the night.
According to various US media, a grand jury was constituted to decide whether the information gathered by the Manhattan prosecutor Cyrus Vance regarding Donald Trump and his group justifies a trial.
That stage will last six months, the Washington Post noted.
Since 2019, the prosecutor has been investigating possible accounting manipulations of the Trump Organization, the holding company that manages all of the former president's businesses.
A former president has never been prosecuted before criminal justice in the United States.
- No legal obstacles -
This case "is potentially extremely serious" for Donald Trump, says Howard Schweber, professor of American politics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
However, the 45th president of the United States could escape prosecution, he told AFP, because nothing indicates that Cyrus Vance is specifically targeting Trump.
In fact, he could target the Trump Organization or aides of the former president.
"What seems obvious is that there are major criminal charges on the horizon" against "officials at the top of the Trump group," he noted.
But even if charged, the real estate mogul would have no legal problem trying to run a presidential campaign again.
The laws governing federal elections do not establish "any requirement that a candidate for president or Congress not be prosecuted," Rick Hasen, a specialist in electoral legislation at the University of California, told AFP.
In 2008, a Republican senator from Alaska, Ted Stevens, ran for election again after being indicted by a grand jury in a corruption case. He was defeated.
- Candidate even while in prison? -
"Criminal convictions do not prevent you from running for federal office. No law prohibits it," says Steven Huefner, a law professor at Ohio University.
In this state, a convict and former Democratic and later independent MP named Jim Traficant stood for reelection while in prison in 2002. He was defeated.
What if a candidate wins the presidential election from jail?
"It would be a remarkable situation, of course," reacted Brian Kalt, a law professor at the University of Michigan.
"I imagine that a judge would take it into account when pronouncing his sentence, to look for alternatives," he said.
This eventuality is "tremendously unlikely," particularly given "the extreme rarity of long prison terms for economic crimes, particularly for politically powerful defendants" and the long electoral road from the primaries to the elections, Howard Schweber noted.
- Unify the troops -
What is not in doubt is that voters most loyal to Donald Trump will continue to support him.
A conviction would weaken him among moderate voters, but "today there really is no center anymore," said Brian Kalt.
"For 99% of the people, no matter what the question is: they are divided between those who lash out at Trump and those who cheer him on, and any questioning about the legal nuances is totally irrelevant."
The former Republican president "has always had the support of a hard core of supporters for whom any accusation of embezzlement only strengthens his loyalty," adds Howard Schweber.
After all, hadn't the New York mogul himself said that he could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue in Manhattan and shoot someone without losing a single vote?
While all of these scenarios remain highly unlikely, Kalt argues, "the very possibility that a candidate will not be buried is quite remarkable."
