Trump's defeat, a blow to European populists
The populist rulers of Europe, especially those of Poland and Hungary, lose to Trump his “godfather” in the White House. Will they have to reorient themselves?
During the election campaign, Joe Biden made very clear what he thought of the populist governments of Eastern Europe. "You see what happens from Belarus to Hungary, through Poland, and the rise of totalitarian regimes in the world. Our president supports all the miscreants of this world," said the then Democratic candidate on ABC. a single sack of Lukashenko, Duda and Orbán was a slap in the face for certain right-wing populists in Europe, and a warning to those involved.
The result of the US presidential elections caught Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Jansa off guard, sending a premature message of congratulations to Trump. Jansa remained stubbornly on his line, to such an extent that even his own Defense Minister warned him that his attitude was not "in the interest of Slovenia."
Diplomatic ambivalence was maintained in Warsaw, and congratulations were sent on "a successful election campaign." President Andrzej Duda wrote over the weekend that "Poland wants to maintain and strengthen its strategic cooperation with the United States." Trump's defeat is a blow to him, also because he bragged about his personal relationship with the current occupant of the White House.
Equally ambiguous sounded the congratulations from Budapest. Viktor Orbán's chief of staff was "pessimistic" during the counting of the votes in the United States. And he said he hoped that the foreign policy of the new Democratic government "will be better than that of the last", alluding to the Obama presidency. He also noted that the Biden campaign had received donations from George Soros, a figure detested by the Hungarian government.
"The Trump presidency represented unrestricted support from Washington," said Peter Kreko, of the liberal institute Political Capital in Budapest. In his view, "the Biden government will react more harshly to Hungary, against democratic setbacks and against the corruption in Chinese and Russian investments ”.
Nobody loved Trump as much as Poland
Poland was the only European country where the majority of people had a positive opinion of Trump, according to polls. And the sympathies had a reason: Trump backed Poland against Russia and reaped the fruits, although the reinforcement of US troops in the country had already been decided in Obama's time. Furthermore, Trump is a harsh critic of the Nord Sream II gas pipeline, and was almost the only political friend of a fairly isolated Poland within the European Union.
"The electoral result is a slap in the face for Kaczynski and Orban, because both had bet on Trump," says Piotr Buras, of the European Council on Foreign Relations.
For Poland, Biden's victory implies a change of perspective. According to Buras, the PiS party is going through its greatest crisis, with persistent protests against anti-abortion laws, for the mismanagement of the coronavirus crisis, for the struggle with the EU for the rules of the rule of law and for intra-party disputes. However, he does not expect a turn in Polish politics, but only some course corrections.
Also Marcin Zaborowski, editor of the magazine Res Publica Nowa, believes that Poland is losing its closest ideological ally, who never criticized the Warsaw government.
The main ideologue of PiS, Ryszard Legutko, declared already that the result of the US elections is "a bad message for the western world", because also the United States will resemble the "Europe of the liberal left".
The EU and Biden
The MEP Sergey Lagodinsky of The Greens thinks it will help the EU that Trump can no longer protect the populists of Eastern Europe. He estimates that with Beiden he will return a friendly policy towards Europe, based on a cooperation with Brussels. Furthermore, he indicates that the United States knows the dangers of illiberal and populist phenomena. "There will be better premises in many fields, when the 'godfather' of Washington is gone," said the German MEP.
Lagodinsky sees Trump's defeat as "a blow against the populist international", but warns against excessive euphoria: "The election will give us a break, but it does not exempt Europe from doing its homework."
