A year after the assault on the Capitol, Donald Trump wants to avenge "his stolen victory"
A year after the assault on Capitol Hill, Donald Trump continues to denounce allegations of fraud during the 2020 presidential election. A theme that has become unifying with his electoral base when the former president already seems to be asking his pawns to ensure a return to the White House in 2024.
A year ago to the day, on January 6, 2021, as US elected officials gathered to certify Joe Biden's victory in the presidential election, hundreds of Donald Trump supporters forced their way into the Capitol, making five dead. Immediately, criticism rocketed from all sides, including in the ranks of the outgoing president, held responsible for this unprecedented attack against one of the symbols of democracy.
A few days later, on January 20, when he officially gave up his place in the White House to Joe Biden and retired to Florida, in near indifference, Donald Trump's political career seemed to be coming to an end. However, a year later, the exuberant millionaire is still well and truly talked about. From his residence in Mar-a-Lago, Florida, he even seems to be preparing the presidential election of 2024 from a distance, and before that the midterm elections scheduled for November 2022.
“Trump is already a candidate”
"The reality is that Trump is already a candidate for 2024", analysis with France 24 Nicole Bacharan, political scientist specializing in the United States and author of the book "The Great Days that Changed America" (Editions Perrin ). "Obviously a lot can happen between now and then, but the former president is determined to run and be elected."
Despite the debacle of last January, the billionaire did not remain lurking in the shadows for long. “He has been particularly active since the summer of 2021 in the public sphere”, details Tamara Boussac, historian specializing in the United States, contacted by France 24. “He multiplies the meetings – these big meetings which he adores and in which he excels - and it works very well. His electoral base is always lively and responsive."
At each of these meetings, in front of a crowd wearing red caps and sometimes "Trump 2024" t-shirts, he talks about the same topics. He systematically castigates “the Biden bad administration”, in particular its management of the Covid-19 crisis and the migration question. But above all, he continues to fuel his "Stop the Steal" theory, the thesis that his victory in the 2020 presidential election was stolen from him by the Democratic Party. "We won the election twice, and we may have to win it a third time," he likes to repeat to his supporters.
"Stop the Steal", a unifying theme
"These allegations have become one of the key elements of Donald Trump's political rhetoric and a unifying theme with his supporters", analyzes Tamara Boussac. "This speech also allows him to minimize the events of January 6 and relegate them to the background; the real fault is not that he attacked the Capitol, but that the Democrats are guilty of electoral fraud."
Thus, on Tuesday, by announcing the cancellation of his press conference organized on the occasion of the anniversary of the assault on the Capitol, he again castigated "the fraud" of the last election, denouncing "the crime of century".
"More than any political ambition, this is his only goal: to take his revenge on Joe Biden", assures Nicole Bacharan. "He wants to be re-elected above all to recognize that this victory was his".
And among voters of the Grand Old Party (GOP), support for this thesis of a stolen election is clear. According to a study by the University of Amherst, in Massachusetts, published on December 28, 70% of them believe that Joe Biden was not legitimately elected to the White House.
The mid-terms of 2022, a "referendum" for Trump
Behind the scenes too, Donald Trump is active. “When he is not in a meeting, he multiplies the meetings at his home, in Florida, with members of the Republican Party to dub those who support him”, explains Tamara Boussac.
Because with his solid electoral base, even deprived of his Twitter account, the former president is still very influential within the party. On the horizon for the November 2022 midterm elections, candidates in every state are jostling for his support.
"Despite everything, his position is withering. In the ranks of the party, some would like to move on and leave Trump in the past," said Nicole Bacharan. Among them, for example, the leader of the Republicans in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, who notably urged Donald Trump to stay out of the ballot "to talk about the future, and not about the past."
“These mid-terms thus take on the appearance of a referendum in support of the former president with the dubbed colt on one side and more moderate candidates on the other,” she adds. "In this, the mid-term elections will be decisive in assessing the level of support that Donald Trump will benefit from for the presidential election", abounds Tamara Broussac.
The integrity of the elections in question
At the same time, Donald Trump is busy with another project. For more than a year, the GOP has been working to profoundly transform the electoral apparatus at the local level. The stated objective: "Securing the electoral process".
"There have been bills in 41 states," explains Nicole Bacharan. It is sometimes proposed to restrict access to postal voting, or even to limit the number of polling stations, in particular in certain Democratic strongholds where ethnic minorities often live.
“The Republicans are also trying to take control of the results of the vote,” denounces the specialist. "Until then, the results were verified by a member of both parties who promised to remain impartial. But many procedures have been initiated to reserve this role for a single Republican representative." According to the specialist, these measures could thus bring down certain safeguards which had prevented from contesting the victory of Joe Biden in 2020.
A question also remains unanswered: can the political ambitions of Donald Trump be thwarted because of the investigation into the assault on the Capitol? “There is little chance”, slice Nicole Bacharan. And to ironize: "When you have money and good lawyers, the ability to obstruct justice is dizzying."
"In any case, the commission of inquiry does not have the capacity to prosecute him criminally. It takes care of hearing witnesses, going through documents and social networks, but it will only be able to give an opinion. “, recalls the specialist from the United States. "The Department of Justice will not be obligated to follow this recommendation at all."
"Also, let's not kid ourselves. If the Republicans win the midterm elections and win a majority in Congress, there is a good chance that the investigation will be reduced to a trickle", believes- she.
