But why is Russia invading Ukraine now?
The media describe as accurately as possible the advance of Russian troops in Ukraine, but many of us ask ourselves a simple question: why does Russia decide in 2022 to invade Ukraine?
Three months that Ukraine heard the Russian boots at its doors. She now sees them marching within her borders. Vladimir Putin's troops have broken through in the north, east and south of the country. The invasion is massive, supported by bombardments on several Ukrainian cities (including the country's capital, Kiev) and not only in the two separatist republics of Donetsk and Luhansk.
The United States and the European Union are also on a war footing - economically and diplomatically - to sanction Russia as strongly as possible, without sending soldiers. Russia could be excluded from the Swift international financial trading system, a financial “atomic bomb”. The value of the ruble has fallen sharply and may continue in the next few days. The price of raw materials, oil and gas in the lead, ignited.
But then why does Vladimir Putin take so many risks? And especially why in 2022?
The most obvious answer is the return of greater Russia. The master of the Kremlin wants to re-establish a zone of protection around his country and this involves a zone of influence over the countries of the former USSR, of which Ukraine was a part but which gained independence in 1991 (90% of Ukrainians voted in this direction). Clearly, Vladimir Putin has never really recognized the borders of his neighbors.
The United States on their side as soon as the wall came down, advanced NATO (Western military alliance) on the European continent towards Russia. It's actually the continuation of the famous strategy of “containment” that we all learned in history class and that we thought was reserved for the Cold War chapter. It aimed to stop the extension of the Soviet zone of influence beyond its limits reached in March 1947 and to counter the states likely to adopt communism.
Coming to power in 2000, Vladimir Putin never ceased to counter this offensive. This obsession - some even speak of "paranoia" - of the Russian president pushes him to repeatedly invoke the risk of Ukraine joining NATO when this option has never been officially put on the table by the atlantic alliance.
The invasion of Ukraine is partly due to this feeling of encirclement. However, Russia had formally undertaken not to attack the integrity of the country. In 1994, Americans, English and Russians committed themselves to it during the Budapest Memorandum in exchange for giving up their Ukrainian nuclear arsenal.
In fact, Ukraine has always remained a point of friction between the Westerners on one side (and the Americans in particular) and the former Soviet counterweight on the other. Since 2004, each of the two countries has supported in each presidential election the Ukrainian candidate who wanted to tilt the country in his camp. Thus, sometimes pro-Russian, sometimes pro-Western, the Ukrainian executive waltzed from one side to the other.
2014, the beginning of the war
In 2014, it is the breaking point. The pro-Western camp is elected but its adversaries do not accept the result. This is the beginning of the formation of separatist provinces including Crimea. Russia decides on its annexation without any Western country opposing it militarily. The two other pro-Russian strongholds located in eastern Ukraine (the Donbass) were not (yet) annexed.
Since 2014, more than 14,000 deaths have been recorded and 2 million people have fled the region. The ceasefire signed in Minsk in 2015 by Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France does not change anything. The conflict continues.
2015 : Accords de Minsk II
— Phil McNaughton (@phil_mcnaughton) February 22, 2022
Les chefs d’État de Biélorussie, Allemagne, France, Russie et bien sûr Ukraine se réunissent et décident un cessez-le-feu, qui fait baisser l’intensité du conflit… qui s’éternise tout de même. pic.twitter.com/WNAdQesaga
In 2019, it is believed that Kyiv is shifting to the pro-Russian camp with the election of Zelensky, a former actor who led a populist anti-corruption campaign. But once in power, his policy turned in reality towards the European Union and raised the threat of joining NATO. In the meantime, the fighting continues in the east... And it is on this latent conflict that the Russian president is surfing until the invasion decided on February 24th. Objective: to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO.
Gas, the cornerstone
But all these explanations do not answer the question: why declare war now? Nobody is in Vladimir Putin's head and still unknown elements could arise in the coming days, but gas is certainly part of the answer. Until now, part of the Russian gas pipelines which supply Europe, especially Germany, Austria and Italy, passed through Ukraine.
To intensify deliveries, Nord Stream 1 is commissioned in 2011 and this time passes through northern Europe, along the North Sea. As that is not enough, Russians, Germans and French agree to finance Nord Stream 2, the largest fossil project on the continent.
Gazprom (the Russian gas company) thus has a free hand to supply the German giant. Russia then finds itself in a position of strength against Europe, which is highly dependent on Russian gas. Above all, exit the dependence on Ukraine, which could turn off the gas tap and deprive Russia of billions of dollars.
Mais maintenant que Nord Stream 2 est achevé… les Russes arrivent. pic.twitter.com/yzHQNKzI8t
— Phil McNaughton (@phil_mcnaughton) February 22, 2022
Of course, Poutine, him, evokes other reasons. In his declaration of war speech broadcast on the night of Wednesday February 23 to Thursday February 24, he asserts that a genocide is perpetrated by the Kiev regime against the Russian-speaking separatists. The Russian president even speaks of fighting against a “Nazification” of Ukraine.
He cheerfully plays on the patriotic fiber of the country and the memory of the USSR delivering Europe from the Nazi invader. On this subject, all Western chancelleries are unanimous and deplore a disinformation strategy.
It remains to be seen which elements will tip the balance one way or the other. On the gas side, against all odds, Germany announced on the evening of Tuesday, February 22, to suspend the authorization to put Nord Stream 2 into service, which was in progress.
