Will Donald Trump be a candidate in 2024?
Donald Trump could run for a new term as President of the United States in 2024. But several obstacles could stand in his way.
Always popular with Republican voters, Donald Trump is hinting that he could run for the White House again in 2024. But, threatened with legal trouble and criticized for his role in the murderous assault on the Capitol, he could see obstacles in the way of a new candidacy.
"With your help, we'll take back the House of Representatives, we'll take back the Senate, and then a Republican president will make a triumphant return to the White House -- I wonder who it will be," teased the 45th president of the United States. United States on Sunday in front of a crowd of activists who came to listen to him at the CPAC meeting, a major meeting of American conservatives.
“He will be back,” read the flag of one of the cheering fans waiting for him outside in Orlando.
A return to power would be almost unprecedented. Only one president has managed to win two non-consecutive terms in American history: Democrat Grover Cleveland, elected in 1884, then defeated in 1888 before winning the White House again in 1892.
And an informal survey of CPAC's conquered audience reported a surprising lukewarmness. While 95% of participants felt that the Republican Party should continue to follow the program led by Donald Trump, only 68% said they would like to see him run again in 2024.
Judicial Front
The former Republican president was acquitted in February in his Senate trial for “inciting insurrection” by his supporters, during the assault on the Capitol on January 6.
While criminal prosecution for this attack on the headquarters of Congress seems unlikely, its legal horizon remains heavy.
In New York, the billionaire is the subject of an investigation which initially targeted payments made, before the 2016 presidential election, to two alleged mistresses. It is now also examining possible allegations of tax evasion, insurance fraud, or bank fraud. His accounting firm submitted eight years of tax and bank statements to the courts.
A Georgia prosecutor also announced in early February the opening of a preliminary criminal investigation into "attempts to influence electoral operations" in that state.
Trade empire
The real estate magnate could decide to focus on reviving his family empire, the "Trump Organization", battered during his tenure marked by deep divisions that have damaged the "Trump" brand.
Thus, during his presidency, residents fought to remove his name from the facade of their building in New York.
Its business, centered on real estate and the hotel industry, has also been hit by the Covid-19 pandemic.
2022, decisive turning point
“We are not going to create a new party, we are not going to divide our power. We will be united and powerful as ever,” the ex-president said on Sunday.
A whole triumphant speech that could collapse depending on the results of the midterm parliamentary elections (the "midterms") of November 2022.
Because, if he claims not to like "losers", Donald Trump has in fact three Republican defeats to his credit: the loss of the House of Representatives in 2018, that of the Senate in January, and the White House.
Whoever presents himself as a kingmaker, courted even in his luxurious residence in Florida by prospective candidates, will be expected at the turn.
If the Republicans manage to take over the Senate and/or the House thanks to candidates dubbed by Donald Trump, the way towards a new presidential candidacy will appear wide open.
If he fails, his Republican opponents, already outraged by the recent loss of the Senate that they attribute to him, will emerge strengthened to block his path.
Republican rivals
If his hold on the party remains dominant, Republican candidates are already sharpening their electoral arguments.
Some, loyal supporters of Donald Trump, remain discreet while waiting for what he decides to do, such as senators Josh Hawley, Ted Cruz or the governor of South Dakota Kristi Noem.
Others have strongly criticized him for his role in the Capitol storming, such as former UN ambassador Nikki Haley and Senator Ben Sasse.
His former vice-president, Mike Pence, could also line up in the race.
Also, at 78 in 2024, the billionaire's age and form will influence his decision.
