Donald Trump Faces Devastating News as Polls Shift in Iowa
Donald Trump has just encountered some of the worst news of his campaign. The highly anticipated final Seltzer poll from Iowa has been released, sending shockwaves across the nation. While many expected the poll, regarded as a gold standard in polling, to show Trump leading by around eight points in Iowa, the results reveal a different story. The new poll indicates that Kamala Harris has taken the lead, 47% to 44%.
Diving deeper into the poll results reveals even more troubling news for Trump. Reports of internal chaos within the Trump campaign suggest that team members are starting to blame one another for what they perceive as a loss to Harris. Meanwhile, Harris's campaign is executing an impressive ground game operation, which is being hailed as one of the best seen in recent memory.
The De Moines Register’s Mediacom Iowa poll shows Harris leading Trump among likely Iowa voters, a shocking development considering Iowa has leaned right in recent elections, giving Trump solid victories in 2016 and 2020. This poll highlights a significant shift, particularly among women voters, especially older and politically independent ones, who are now favoring Harris.
Trump still maintains strong support from his core demographic: men, evangelicals, rural residents, and individuals without a college degree. However, further analysis of the poll data indicates a potential crisis for Trump's campaign as independent voters, who previously supported him, are now leaning toward Harris. This shift is especially pronounced among independent women, who support Harris by a 28-point margin.
Looking at senior voters, those aged 65 and older, Harris is also performing well. Senior women support her by more than a two-to-one margin, 63% to 28%, while senior men show a much narrower preference for her, favoring Harris by just two percentage points, 47% to 45%. Additionally, Harris has a slight edge among younger voters under 35, leading Trump 46% to 44%. Her significant backing from likely voters aged 65 and older—55% to 36%—could be crucial, as older Iowans tend to vote at higher rates.
Overall, the data shows Harris leading Trump among all women voters in Iowa by a stunning 20 points, which raises alarm bells within Trump's camp. Observers have noted this growing enthusiasm on the ground, as evidenced by the energy at Harris's rallies. For instance, her recent rally in Atlanta drew a massive crowd, showcasing the excitement surrounding her campaign.
In stark contrast, Trump’s rally in North Carolina saw attendees leaving before he even finished his speech, signaling a potential decline in his appeal.
As Trump grapples with these polling results, he has reportedly been questioning why women do not seem to support him. On a recent call to Fox News, he made controversial comments regarding women, further complicating his position. Trump expressed disappointment in a new Democratic ad campaign that suggests women can keep their voting preferences private from their husbands, saying, “It doesn’t say much for her relationship.”
We’ve seen an overwhelming wave of issues lately—from sexual assaults to the erosion of reproductive rights—and that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Here are the latest polls from some of the most trusted sources. Marist has Kamala Harris ahead by two points in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Marquette shows her leading by one point in Wisconsin, while an Seltzer poll has her up three points in Iowa.
JD Vance is clearly feeling the pressure; he’s now urging his followers on social media to ignore the polls and not to worry. It’s concerning when a candidate feels the need to reassure their base just days before the election. Meanwhile, a Kamala Harris campaign official in Pennsylvania shared that their volunteers are averaging an astonishing 2,000 door knocks per minute across the state, a figure that initially made me double-take. This data was current as of Saturday at 12:54 p.m., showcasing remarkable mobilization efforts.
To put this into perspective, earlier this month, Reuters reported that Elon Musk’s America PAC, which has taken on a significant portion of Donald Trump’s ground efforts, is struggling to meet its goal of 450,000 door knocks in Wisconsin. By contrast, the Harris campaign achieved that same goal in just 225 minutes—nearly four hours. This stark difference highlights the significance of grassroots campaigning and effective organization over Musk’s chaotic operation, which some have compared to a kidnapping scheme.
The chaos within Musk's operation is concerning. According to The New York Times, one canvassing effort in Arizona was supposedly working from a golf course more than 7,000 miles away, raising questions about the integrity of their campaign efforts. Internal America PAC records have indicated that in some states, as much as 25% of the doors canvassed in a day were flagged for “unusual activity.” Reports suggest canvassers who couldn’t be tracked or who had suspiciously high numbers of homes are causing alarm among those familiar with the operations.
Here’s a firsthand account from Amy Sisin, a door knocker for the Kamala Harris campaign, who has experience from multiple election cycles. She states, “I’ve been knocking on Pennsylvania doors since late August. Initially, many people didn’t know who Harris was, but I’ve returned almost every weekend since. It feels solid here, reminiscent of the positive atmosphere during the 2022 elections when Fetterman exceeded expectations.” This sentiment is echoed by volunteers in Michigan, where they aim to surpass 250,000 door knocks on Saturday alone.
Meanwhile, reports are emerging from the Trump campaign, as Axios indicates that Trump is increasingly anxious, demanding more work from his aides. His late-night calls reveal his worries about the election’s outcome, and other conservatives have expressed concerns about a disappointing turnout among male voters in early voting—an important factor in this gender-divided election.
With early voting skewing disproportionately female, it’s clear that if men don’t turn out, Kamala Harris could secure the presidency. Charlie Kirk of Turning Point USA posted on X, reminding everyone that the narrative of women merely being passive victims of Trump’s actions is being overturned as they fight back.
In Georgia, over four million people voted early—an unprecedented turnout, amounting to more than 55% of registered voters in the state. As of Saturday morning, 92 Georgia counties had exceeded a 50% turnout. The gender breakdown shows female voters accounting for approximately 56% of the total, while male voters are just under 44%. These trends are echoed nationwide, revealing a significant turnout gap.
In her closing ad for the campaign, Harris touched on the challenges facing Americans—high costs, the loss of fundamental rights, and a political climate filled with fear and division. She promised to address these issues directly, emphasizing that the majority of Americans share more in common than divides them. Her message was one of unity and common purpose.
As the campaign draws to a close, the Trump team’s strategy seems misaligned with the political landscape. While he should be focusing on critical battleground states, Trump was spotted in Virginia, a state that hasn’t voted GOP since 2004, and where Biden won by ten points in 2020. His remarks during the campaign have also been troubling, with bizarre anecdotes—such as a reference to Hannibal Lecter in discussing mental health issues—that do little to resonate positively with voters.
Trump’s continued association with RFK Jr. has raised eyebrows, particularly his suggestion that he would place him in charge of women’s health. This alarming notion has serious implications for public health, given RFK Jr.’s lack of qualifications and his controversial stances.
Despite the Trump campaign’s disarray, pro-democracy sentiments are surging, and the urgency for action is clear. The focus for all of us in these final hours is to mobilize and ensure that we turn out the vote. If you haven’t voted yet, make sure you do. Encourage friends and family to join you—every voice counts in this crucial election.
The turmoil within Trump’s campaign is becoming more pronounced. A recent article in The Atlantic details the discord among campaign staff, with reports of Trump wanting to dismiss his campaign managers out of fear of public fallout. There are signs of blame-shifting among staff for the campaign’s struggles. Laura Loomer, a Trump supporter, revealed that the only reason some campaign staffers leaked negative information about her and Alex Brutz was due to their lack of belief in Trump’s chances, showing a troubling admission about the campaign’s internal dynamics.
On the other hand, Vice President Harris was out engaging with supporters in North Carolina on Saturday, delivering an empowering message that this is our chance to move past Trump’s divisive rhetoric. She emphasized the need for a new generation of leadership in America, stating, “I am ready to offer that leadership as the next president of the United States.”
