If you’re searching for a data-driven video that offers a glimmer of hope as we approach Election Day, then this one is for you! We’ve just received a significant new poll from Ann Seltzer in Iowa, showing Vice President Harris in the lead. Yes, you heard that right—Harris is ahead in Iowa! This is truly mind-blowing, and I was shocked when I first saw the results. It’s causing quite a stir on Twitter, so let’s dive into the details of this poll.
To set the stage, Harris has had some impressive polling numbers recently. For instance, a CNN poll reveals she is tied in Pennsylvania, up five percentage points in Michigan, and six points ahead in Wisconsin, according to a poll conducted just a week before the election, with a margin of error of ±4.8%. Additionally, an election model released on Friday shows Harris leading Trump nationally by three points, and she’s ahead in key states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Nevada. In North Carolina, she leads Trump 50% to 48%, while in Wisconsin, she’s ahead 49% to 47%.
Now, let’s focus on the Ann Seltzer poll, which is noteworthy because of Seltzer’s reputation in the polling community. Ann Seltzer is a prominent political pollster and the president of Seltzer & Company, a polling firm based in Des Moines, Iowa, which she founded in 1996. Her polls have a well-established track record for accuracy in major elections from 2008 to 2020, earning her a high level of respect, even being described as the best pollster in politics by Clare Malone at FiveThirtyEight.
The latest Iowa poll indicates that Harris is picking up support, particularly among women, allowing her to surpass Trump in a state that he has won twice. According to a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll, Harris leads Trump among likely voters 47% to 44% just days before a crucial election that appears deadlocked in other battleground states. If Iowa swings even close to Harris winning, it could be a game-changer come Election Night.
I want to clarify that I’m not suggesting Harris will sweep Iowa or that the election is over—it will still be a competitive race. Trump retains a chance, but this poll provides some encouraging news for Democrats, marking a significant turnaround for both parties, who had largely anticipated a Trump victory in Iowa.
Notably, the poll results come after a September survey showed Trump with a four-point lead over Harris, while a June poll indicated Trump had an 18-point advantage over Biden. So, we’ve seen a dramatic shift in just a few months.
Pollster Ann Seltzer remarked, "It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming," acknowledging that Harris has clearly surged into a leading position. Now, let’s break down the poll data in detail.
Likely voters in Iowa were asked whom they would support if the general election were held today. The results show Harris at 47% and Trump at 44%, with the margin of error at ±3.4 percentage points. This places Harris close to Trump, who is also experiencing a decline in support—down from 50% in June to 44% now. While independent candidate RFK Jr. receives 3% of the vote, the remaining candidates barely register.
Interestingly, as both Trump and Harris focus on seven battleground states, neither has campaigned in Iowa since the primaries, and neither campaign has established a strong ground presence in the state. A win for Harris in Iowa, or even a close race, would be a surprising development, especially considering Iowa's trend toward Republican candidates in recent elections.
The shift towards Harris is particularly driven by women, especially older voters and political independents. Seltzer notes that "age and gender are the two most dynamic factors" explaining the changing numbers. According to the latest polling, Harris leads Trump significantly among likely Iowa voters, with a polling history that shows her support gradually rising.
The poll indicates that independent women are significantly backing Harris, which could play a critical role in her election chances. For example, senior women support Harris over Trump by a substantial margin, with one 79-year-old respondent stating that she believes Harris will help protect democracy and support individual rights.
While Trump has shown stronger enthusiasm among his supporters, the numbers suggest that sheer enthusiasm alone won’t secure victory. Harris's supporters are still enthusiastic, with 71% expressing strong support, albeit slightly down from previous polls.
In comparison, the polling dynamics this year suggest that independent voters are now leaning toward Harris, representing a notable turnaround from previous trends favoring Trump. The current landscape in Iowa signals a potential game-changer in the upcoming election.
