The new foreign policy of the Biden administration in Asia
Under the presidency of Donald Trump, American foreign policy has mainly been concentrated in two areas of the world. In the Middle East, where Washington managed to bring home several results, including the normalization of relations between Israel and some Arab countries (the so-called "Agreement of the Century") and the killing of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani, and in the Far East . But in the hot Asian continent, not even a singular approach like that adopted by Trump was enough to heal too deep historical wounds.
In the period between 2016 and 2020, America was unable to untie any knot, with the exception of the illusory brake - we could say in the media - put by Trump on the North Korean missile program. The tycoon has started a very dangerous trade war with China that has not brought desired results. Of course, Beijing, considered by the Pentagon as the number one threat to US security, initially suffered quite a psychological backlash. However, the Dragon soon moved the cursor of its economy to "self-sufficient" mode, and this is how its tech greats were able to limit the damage.
In recent weeks, US Secretary Mike Pompeo has toured Southeast Asia to win the sympathy of Chinese neighbors. A rather colorless outcome, since these nations, like it or not, are forced to do business with China. And if business is good, net of political antipathies, why compromise everything for Americans? More or less this is how states like Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia have reasoned.
Chapter South Korea and Japan: Washington's main allies in the Asian region, while remaining loyal to the United States, have shown repeated and emblematic signs of impatience. Both Moon Jae In and Abe Shinzo would have wanted more room for maneuver, especially for some choices in foreign policy: nothing to do and ball in the middle. On the other hand, Trump's approach to Narendra Modi's India and the strengthening of relations with the "rebel province" of Taiwan (as it is defined by China), two moves clearly conceived in an anti-Chinese key, are good. For the rest there were no substantial changes. China continued its rise - albeit slowed by the Covid-19 pandemic - North Korea remained an unknown while the allies asked for more space.
What could change with Biden
Joe Biden's (still formally uncertain) victory in the presidential elections risks opening up interesting scenarios. Many wonder what the policy adopted by the Democrat in Asia will be. It is difficult to say with absolute certainty, even if hypotheses can be made on the basis of the statements made by Biden himself during the election campaign. For sure, the approach of Obama's former videpresident will be more traditional, less flashy and decidedly softer than the free-range modus operandi deployed by Trump.
China
The general scenario is destined to remain so, regardless of whether Biden or Trump may be in command of the US. In other words, Beijing will continue to be the enemy to point the finger at, the number one economic rival, the most imminent danger. However, there are some things to consider. First: with Biden the trade war against the Dragon would continue, but it would undoubtedly be lighter and less aggressive. Second: with Trump, on the contrary, the Chinese government would be forced to serve another four years of fights, but with the possibility of using the tycoon to compact the Chinese Communist Party around the figure of Xi Jinping. In other words, with Biden you go back to the past (or almost) with Trump you navigate on sight day after day.
North Korea
Trump had managed to establish a direct "friendship" with North Korean President Kim Jong Un. He had met him three times and spent honey words to describe his work. Biden has already said he doesn't want to meet the Great Leader. Presumably, the Democrat's strategy will follow that adopted by Obama: containment and maximum pressure, the latter to be exercised through economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation. At that point Kim could resume his missile tests at any moment and the situation flare up at any moment. In this case the dream of a hypothetical reunification with South Korea would evaporate like snow in the sun. In short, Pyongyang would prefer to do business with The Donald.
South Korea
Moon Jae In will have breathed a sigh of relief at seeing Trump silenced. The pressure of the historic American ally was too strong, especially when the proactive South Korean president tried in every way to reach out to Kim for a reconciliation. Nothing to do: The Donald stole the show (and the credit) from poor Moon, who found himself, in fact, with a handful of flies. It will remain to be seen whether with Biden it will be possible to decline the North Korean theme on the path of peace and mutual understanding. Big question mark.
Japan
The new premier Yoshihide Suga will continue in the path traced by Abe. No jolts, no gear changes. Tokyo is on good terms with Beijing and, especially from a commercial point of view, has no interest in increasing the tension. What is certain is that if the tension should increase, the Japanese government will side with America with its eyes closed. And Biden could exploit this factor both in an anti-Chinese key and to contain free-range North Korea.
Taiwan
The "rebel province," as they call it in Beijing, will continue to be the United States' favorite stronghold in the South China Sea. With Joe Biden, Washingon's attitude towards Taipei shouldn't change one iota. Although - and this may be the only novelty - the Democrat will do everything to avoid unnecessary fuss. Yes to the alliance with Taiwan, no to provocations made just to throw digs at China.
Southeast Asia
Here Biden will try in every way to gather as much support as possible. India is a candidate to become, together with Taiwan, the most important American "weapon" to be used to call Beijing to order. With the other states in the region, the White House will try to use carrots and sticks in the hope of making an even bigger breach in the Indo-Pacific region. Attention, however, to the issue of human rights, which will almost certainly guide - unlike Trump - the biden administration’s foreign policy work.
Personal relationships with Xi and Kim
Finally, it is necessary to make a couple of quick notes on the possible personal relationships between Joe Biden and the two main American enemies in Asia: Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un. As for Xi, the new US president could use a very different approach than Trump's. It is hard to expect jokes or jokes from the Democrat. On the contrary, it will try in every way to silently gag the Chinese leader to put his back to the wall. Also because, as we have explained, China, in the eyes of the White House, will continue to represent the main threat to national security. Chapter Kim. Trump had managed to maintain a friendly and direct relationship with the North Korean Great Leader. Biden, for his part, will forcefully reject such a bond by virtue of a new, possible wall to wall.
