What if Trump can't run? Many steps are clear, but others are not
The Constitution says that the vice president is the next official in the line of succession, if the president dies or can no longer serve, but things get complicated from there.
WASHINGTON - US President Donald Trump tested positive for coronavirus and that has raised the possibility, remote as it may be, that he could be incapacitated or die in office if his symptoms worsen.
While that remains highly unlikely, and few people in Washington were willing to discuss that possibility on Friday when Trump was transferred to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center for treatment, the Constitution and Congress long ago established a succession plan. to ensure that the United States is protected from adversaries and internal conflicts when the president-elect is unable to serve.
The Constitution makes it clear that the vice president is the first choice to succeed the president should he die in office, and can step in to temporarily assume the duties of the presidency if the commander-in-chief becomes incapacitated. Vice President Mike Pence, 61, tested negative for coronavirus on Friday.
However, other situations become much more complicated and are embroiled in a series of legal tirades about what to do if a president is unable to serve but refuses to resign, or if he wins the election but is unable to exercise the duties of the president. position, or what would happen if the president and vice president are incapacitated.
Here we explain what would happen in various situations that could compromise the president of the United States:
What if Trump dies or cannot serve?
The Constitution and laws are clearer in cases where a president dies or must resign from office. The twenty-fifth amendment establishes that: "In the event of removal of the president from office or upon his death or resignation, the vice president shall become the president."
The rise of a vice president is not unheard of in American history. On eight occasions, a vice president has had to assume the highest office in the nation due to the president's death, the most recent being in the 1963 assassination of John F. Kennedy, when Lyndon B. Johnson became president. (In 1974, Vice President Gerald Ford assumed the presidency after the resignation of Richard M. Nixon.)
The Constitution states that Congress must decide what happens if the vice president also dies or is unable to serve, and various laws have been enacted to provide for contingencies.
The most recent is the Presidential Succession Act that was enacted in 1947, after the death of President Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1945 (it was amended again in 2006). The statute says that the speaker of the House is next in line of succession, followed by the president pro tempore of the Senate and then the members of the cabinet would come, starting with the secretary of state.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, 80, said on Friday that she had tested negative for the virus and was confident that the correct plans had been put in place should they be necessary.
"The continuity of the government has always been foreseen," he said in an interview with MSNBC. "I always say that it is a relic of the past, however, that determines what our job is, and that is what we will do."
Senator Charles E. Grassley, Republican of Iowa, is the current president pro tempore of the Senate. He is 87 years old.
What if the president is too ill to perform his duties?
Under the Twenty-fifth Amendment, which was ratified in the 1960s to clarify presidential disability and succession planning, presidents can voluntarily delegate their powers to their vice-presidents in the event of becoming seriously ill or unable to perform their duties. functions.
If Trump becomes seriously ill, he could notify the speaker of the House and the president pro tempore of the Senate that he is unable to "fulfill the powers and duties of his office" and thus transfer his powers to Pence who in effect, he would become interim president. Trump can reclaim all his functions upon recovery.
On Friday afternoon, when Trump was expected to depart for Walter Reed, Judd Deere, a spokesman for the White House, said that the president will remain in full possession of his faculties and powers.
"There is no transfer," he said. "The president is still in office."
Since the amendment was ratified in 1967, vice presidents have only seized power in three cases, and always for very short periods. In 1985, when President Ronald Reagan had to be anesthetized to undergo a colon procedure, he gave his powers to Vice President George Bush for about eight hours, although he avoided formally invoking the amendment. And, in 2002 and 2007, President George W. Bush temporarily transferred his authority to Vice President Dick Cheney during a colonoscopy.
Can the president be replaced involuntarily?
The twenty-fifth amendment also provides for the forced removal of a president, even if he is too ill to delegate his functions or if he refuses to do so.
For the authors of the amendment, these possibilities were not mere wild hypotheses. After suffering a stroke in 1919, President Woodrow Wilson spent the remainder of his term partially paralyzed and blind; his condition was mostly kept secret.
The amendment gives the vice president, who must act with the cabinet or with a group designated by Congress, powers to intervene. If the majority of any of those groups decides and informs the House and Senate that the president "cannot fulfill the powers and duties of his office," then "the vice president shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as interim president." . That mandate has never been used and political considerations could make it difficult to implement.
The arrangement would last until the president informed Congress that "there is no disability," so he could fulfill his duties. If the group that removed him disagrees, the decision belongs to Congress, with the requirement that two-thirds of the House and Senate must agree to separate the president-elect from power.
What could happen if there is a dispute over who is in power?
Although presidential succession is clearly enshrined in law, some jurists argue that it may not be consistent with the Constitution, posing potentially disastrous problems if the nation's two top leaders can no longer serve.
Some constitutional scholars have raised doubts as to whether the speaker of the House and the president pro tempore of the Senate are eligible to replace the president, arguing that the drafters of the laws only contemplated the possibility that those qualified to exercise that action were senior officials of the executive branch.
Jack L. Goldsmith, a professor at Harvard Law School, warned earlier this year that the seemingly remote dispute could spark a confrontation. It is possible, for example, that Pelosi and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, the next executive branch official in the line of succession, could claim the presidency.
"These are all nightmare scenarios because those provisions of constitutional law have never really been tested," Goldsmith said.
It is also unclear what would happen if the president and vice president are temporarily incapacitated. Norman J. Ornstein, a congressional scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, said the situation could result in a short-term duel over claims of presidential authority between the White House chief of staff, the secretary of state or other figures.
"You think about the ambiguity of the chains of command while we have adversaries all over the world," he said. "We could have some serious problems and a government adrift, while some actors compete for power."
What if Trump can no longer run?
Things get complicated, quickly.
First, the Republican National Committee would have to choose a new nominee, a process that would involve President Ronna McDaniel and all 168 national members, three from each state and territory. But since many states have already begun printing, mailing and accepting ballots, and some have begun voting in person, it is unlikely that a new nominee's name will be printed on the ballots in time for Election Day.
Then it would be up to individual states to decide how to proceed, and most have not established rules for this situation.
"It would be about what each state law says or does not say about what happens in this eventuality, and many state laws are simply silent on this possibility," said Richard L. Hasen, a law professor at the University of California, Irvine, who also discussed the issue on his Election Law blog. "So questions may arise about what to do."
The question would become more complex if Trump wins the election, but cannot govern. Some, but not all, states force their constituents to vote for the candidate who wins the state, but even most states with binding election laws don't mention what could happen if a candidate dies or is unable to serve.
