Why Trump Could Win (Again) the 2020 US Elections
Here are all the reasons why Donald Trump could be re-elected and continue to be president of the United States by winning the challenge against Biden.
Despite polls saying otherwise, Donald Trump could really win the 2020 US Election.
It is true, the electorate living in the US suburbs is showing an ever increasing sympathy for the democratic rival Joe Biden, as well as the most elderly slice of the population, but there are elements - more or less concrete - that lead us to think that Trump may he truly continue to be president of the United States for another four years.
Why Trump Could Win (Again) the 2020 US Elections
But first, for the record, let's analyze the main factors that lead most to think that Trump has zero chance of being re-elected.
The unemployment rate. Keeping it low is one of the main goals of any good US president. US unemployment currently fluctuates at 11%, about three percentage points above when President Jimmy Carter lost the election in 1980 and when George H. W. Bush was beaten by Bill Clinton in 1992.
Another task of the good US president is to maintain a good degree of security - or presumed so - within the country. The deaths from COVID-19 in the United States are now 181,000, more than three times the number of experts in the Vietnam War, which made Lyndon B. Johnson lose any chance of re-election in 1968.
Every good American president must try to attract interest outside his own trusted electorate. Trump's approval rate is 38% (Gallup data), and no one has been re-elected with a rating below 40% since Truman's victory in 1948.
Despite all this, Trump's chances are far from zero.
Even with the health crisis linked to the coronavirus and a considerable economic collapse, Trump has held up. His base electorate has not grown, but neither has it fallen.
The useless polemics, the avalanches of angry tweets, the obsession with the conspiracy - everything has already been seen by now, nothing shocks the Americans anymore.
Which leads us to list the 5 reasons why Donald Trump will win (or could win) the 2020 US Elections. Eye: in 2016 we got it right…
1. The economic recovery
As reckless as it was to conclude the lockdown while the pandemic was still raging, the positive effects on the economy are appreciable: a record total of 7.5 million jobs were added in May and June. The numbers may slow down in the coming months, but Trump can rhetorically turn what could turn out to be fleeting improvements into a full-fledged recovery.
Although the improvement in employment is evident, it should be borne in mind that the crisis is far from over. The US economy has "only" recovered about a third of the jobs lost and the second part of the recovery phase is likely to be much slower. For example, sales in the apparel industry fell by 90% from February to April. Since then they have almost doubled, but there is little to celebrate: we are still 70% below the maximum.
But the context for Trump has always been of relative importance. Point out the improvements and ignore the rest: a technique widely used in politics. And there are many to "take the bait". According to a recent ABC News-Washington Post poll, 50% of respondents still like the way Trump manages the economy, even if they condemn him for other reasons.
2. Surveys may be wrong (again)
On the occasion of the 2016 US Elections, the challenge between Trump and Hillary Clinton was played out in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Trump won in all three states by a handful of votes. This time, Biden leads each of them by at least 4.5 percentage points.
However, even in 2016 polls found Trump underdog in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, in favor of Clinton. In Pennsylvania alone, seven different polls conducted in the first two weeks of October 2016 gave Clinton an advantage of no less than 4 percentage points to a maximum of 9. How did it go? She lost by about one point.
Some studies carried out after the elections, precisely to understand what went wrong in the realization of the polls, have revealed serious inefficiencies.
For one thing, many polls have failed to balance the overrepresentation of graduate voters, who are more likely to participate in polls and generally supporters of Clinton. Furthermore, the polls have failed to grasp the trend common to most voters, who ultimately decided to vote for Trump.
The problem is that it is not easy to understand whether this time the polls are repeating the same mistakes or not.
3. Trump knows how to campaign
Those who are already president can well exploit their situation to be re-elected. He can push measures and policies that matter most to "high-quality" constituencies and win the favor of the so-called "swing states" with official visits which then turn out to be real election campaign meetings.
After the latest polls showing today's US president down among the oldest electorate, last spring Trump appeared at the Rose Garden - the garden across the west wing of the White House - announcing details of a plan to cut back. the costs of insulin, showing lots of video of a 68-year-old with diabetes thanking him.
In July Trump again gave a speech at the Rose Garden, ostensibly to talk about Hong Kong, but ended up talking about Biden, his Democratic rival, most of the time.
At the end of last month, Trump then re-started the daily conferences of the coronavirus-themed task force, which had been interrupted about three months ago. They give him access to national television audiences at a time when meeting live is very complicated.
4. Biden has several problems to think about
Biden has tragic personal losses behind him (his first wife and daughter died in a car accident in '72), which somehow makes him a comparison figure for bereaved Americans who have lost their jobs or loved ones due to the pandemic.
At the same time, however, he symbolizes a brand of establishment centrism that leaves some young voters and some of the party’s activist wing very perplexed. They preferred the other Democrat running for the 2020 election, Barnie Sanders.
If aficionados of Sanders decide to stay home on election day out of some sort of resentment, Biden may not be able to beat Trump, especially from swing states.
5. Biden voters may not vote
State-level elections held in recent months in some states could herald a disaster. The number of polling stations has been reduced due to COVID-19, forcing voters to wait hours in line especially in large cities.
This amounts to reducing the number of voters. There are several metropolitan areas considered to be the strongholds of the Democrats. Millions of potential Biden voters would be faced with a tough choice: stay at home, or go to the polls and risk contracting a potentially deadly disease.
All that remains is to wait. And in the meantime, it is useful to keep informed. Below is a list of useful insights on the 2020 US Elections:
