Donald Trump will never accept defeat
As you watch the Trump administration move towards an unpleasant ending, remember how it all began. Donald Trump got into politics riding conspiracy theories that Barack Obama was not born in the United States, theories backed by a movement that has been grossly underestimated. In addition to the racist connotations of the whole story, remember the implications of that absurd thesis. Those who believed that Barack Obama was not born in the United States - we're talking about a third of Americans, including 72 percent of Republican voters - inevitably considered him an illegitimate president.
In other words, these people believed that everyone - the entire political, judicial and media system of the United States, including the White House, Congress, federal courts, and the FBI - were complicit in a colossal plan to push opinion. public to accept an impostor as president. A third of the population had so little faith in democracy that they were willing to believe that the Obama presidency was a fraud.
That slice of the population has become Donald Trump's electoral base. For four years these people continued to applaud him regardless of his behavior, not so much because they believed everything he said but because they didn't believe anything. If everything is a scam, then it doesn't matter that the president is a liar. If all politicians are corrupt, why turn up your nose if the president is also corrupt? If everyone has always broken every rule, why shouldn't the president do it too?
So it is not surprising that voters did not flinch when Trump ignored the subpoenas issued by congress; or when he used the justice department to practice his personal vendettas; or when he ignored the ethical recommendations and rules on access to confidential information; or when he fired government officials charged with overseeing compliance. No wonder Trump's people continued to celebrate him when he accused the CIA and the State Department of being part of the "deep state," or when he said, with a smile on his face, that reporters are "Enemies of the people".
All of this was not created by Trump. Many Americans had lost faith in institutions long before he entered politics. A recent poll indicates that half of the public is dissatisfied with the political system, while a fifth would like to live in a state governed by the military. Trump exploited this democratic deficit to win the election, then steadily widened it over the course of his term. Now his political, financial and even emotional strategy forces him to further damage the link between Americans and democracy.
Set of traps
Trump launched his offensive shortly after the November 3 election. Let's face it: this is a strategy, not a causal reaction to events. Trump is not capable of governing, but for some time now, with the instinct typical of scammers, he has understood how to increase distrust and how to use this distrust to his own advantage. Journalist Lesley Stahl said Trump once confessed to her why he attacks the media: "To discredit you all and belittle you, so when you write negative things about me, no one believes you." The president also discredited and belittled public officials such as Fiona Hill and Alexander Vindman, members of the National Security Council. Even then, he knew that if those people spoke honestly about his behavior, no one would believe him.
Now, after months of insinuating that the rules were rigged to penalize him, Trump has set a series of traps designed to discredit and belittle the electoral system as well, so that some Americans lose faith in its functioning. I'm not the first to say this, but it's worth repeating: the fact that Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan didn't finish their counting on the evening of November 3 is no accident. In all these states, Republican leaders prevented electoral councils from processing postal votes before November 3. In the midst of a pandemic that Democrats take more seriously than Republicans, it was inevitable that a large gap would emerge between votes cast in person and those sent in the mail, especially after Trump warned his supporters that the postal vote was rigged. .
Trump knew Biden would catch up. It is precisely for this reason that at 2.20 am on the night of November 3, and before the result was even clearer, he declared that the elections had been “a scam against the American people. We do not want others to find ballot papers at four in the morning and add them to the count ”. This is why the Republicans have already filed a series of appeals, trying to give the impression that there have been irregularities. An allegation of fraud in Montana has already been denied and dismissed due to lack of evidence.
Trevor Potter, president of the Campaign Legal Center and advisor to Republican politician John McCain in the presidential campaigns of 2000 and 2008, confided to me that one complaint filed in Pennsylvania is "ridiculous" and that all the others are "weak" and aim exclusively at slow down the counting of votes or eliminate ballot papers in any way.
Again, this is a well-planned strategy. Trump's is a desperate and illegal attempt to hold on to power. As Barton Gellman wrote, both the rhetoric and the barrage of baseless complaints about alleged fraud aim above all to create the unfounded feeling of a rigged vote, perhaps fueling in some Republican state parliamentarian the temptation to ignore the response of the polls and appoint a delegation that, when the big voters gather to officially elect the president, he will vote for Trump. The head of the Republican Party of Pennsylvania alluded to this "possibility", which was later categorically denied by the Republican majority leader in the state senate.
In any case, even if Trump's plan collides with the reality of the countdown and a tsunami of news headlines over Biden's victory, the president will never admit that the elections were fair. And even if Trump is forced to (grudgingly) acknowledge defeat, Biden takes office on January 20, 2021, and the Trump family is forced to pack their bags and take refuge in the Mar-a-Lago estate, the president and the Republican Party will have all interest in claiming that the elections were rigged. This is because in the coming years Trump's electoral base (all those people who no longer believe in American democracy) could still be extremely useful to the president and his party.
Certainly these voters can be used to discredit and belittle the Biden administration. Trump will try to convince millions of Americans that his successor is an illegitimate president, just as he did with Obama. Facebook groups gathered under the slogan "Biden is a crook" will be used to gather votes and support Republican causes. The party will send emails with the subject "Biden crook" to raise funds. The leaders of Trump's election campaign have already prepared a text for the fundraising: “President Trump and Vice-President Pence: the situation is so serious that we have both decided to write to you. Democrats and fake news want to manipulate this election! It's time to donate and fight! Let's get into action now! ”.
Public figures who support Trump online have tried, probably aided by the Republican Party and its bot network, to spread the hashtag #StopTheSteal (stop the theft) on social networks. Fox News commentator Laura Ingraham has already stirred up her millions of Twitter followers by talking about "prolonged abuse of our electoral system by corrupt Democratic officials."
Other Republicans will join this cause, because they see the possibility of raising funds and scrapping votes by fueling mistrust. Tommy Tuberville, a former football coach who has just been elected senator for Alabama, wrote: “The referee has blown the whistle to end the game, the players are going home. But now the referee is adding points in favor of the opposing team ". It doesn't matter that the game is actually far from over and it won't be over for hours. From today Tuberville will use the myth of "Biden's illegitimacy" as an excuse for not cooperating with the new president, for not approving any aid plan for the pandemic and to hinder the success of Biden and the country in every way.
Knowing the Trump family, it is to be expected that they will also use this strategy to make money. Paradoxically, Trump's defeat could bolster the loyalty of his staunchest supporters, angered that their hero has been stripped of his rightful role. Now these people will buy flags, ties, hats that read Make America great again and maybe even graduates from the revived Trump university. They could become devoted viewers of Trump TV, a broadcaster that will rival Fox's new enemies. Perhaps they will buy tickets to rallies and other public events where Trump will repeat proven slogans like "Arrest Hillary" or "Stop counting votes!"
Trump will face a lot of legal and financial problems (the millions of dollars in debt, plus the upcoming investigations into tax contributions and scams), so he will need a political foundation more than ever. Expect Trump and his children to describe any legal action against the family as political persecution: "They are trying me for fighting the false president." Expect them to try to grab the attention of the news media in every way, day after day, with runaway press conferences broadcast live on Trump TV and Facebook and front page articles in the New York Post. The prospect of such a circus could discourage some investigators. On the other hand, no one would want to be hounded by a million bots or become the victim of an angry horde, online and in real life.
More than anything else, Biden’s illegitimacy lies will be a panacea for Donald Trump’s fragile ego. Unable to accept defeat and unable to admit he's been beaten, Trump will protect himself from reality by pretending it doesn't exist. His personal need to live in a fantasy world where he always wins is strong enough to push him to do whatever it takes to keep him standing. In his narcissistic drive towards an alternate reality, he will grow divisions, spread paranoia and feed the terror his supporters feel towards their fellow citizens, as well as the distrust of institutions. This president never had the country's interests at heart. Don't expect it to start now.
