No, Trump won't come back
The crucial question today is about Trump's future. Until January 6, most commentators believed that Trump's refusal to admit defeat not only served his ego, but also prepared his return to the White House in 2024.
What are the chances? Not a draw, but he has so many obstacles to overcome - many more than in 2016 - that his return is unlikely.
First obstacle: age. In 2024, Trump will be 78 years old. How fit will he still be? Of course, there is the counter-argument: Biden. But he won mainly because he embodied the alternative.
Second hurdle: Trump lost the election. Unlike 2016, the voter knows what he (cannot) do (not). And the majority rejected it. It is highly unlikely that Trump can change the negative image that exists of him outside of his die-hard supporters, not least because at no point in his term - an exceptionally - a majority viewed him positively.
Third obstacle: the culture of the winner. On the one hand, this makes Trump all the more eager for a second chance, but, on the other hand, losers in presidential races rarely get a second chance. A failed president (Ford, Carter, Bush Sr.) walks out the back door.
Fourth obstacle: Trump has few followers within the party apparatus. He is feared, but not loved because he openly humiliates the competitors. They have had enough of him and will not mourn his departure. The docility of others is based on fear, an asset he will lose when no longer in power.
Fifth obstacle: As of January 20, Trump is a citizen who is no longer allowed to work and serious lawsuits are to be expected.
Sixth obstacle: Trump having lost the leadership of the party, he lacks the political platform that his competitors have with their position as senator. And then, by 2024, there will be several young Republicans who will stand up and say: now it's my turn. Trump could of course run as an independent candidate. But then, like Ross Perot in 1992, he would divide the Republican electorate and a Democrat would easily win.
