The intellectual legacy of ‘Trumpism’
In six months the presidential elections will be held in the United States. There remains a world because, if we have learned anything from the presidency of Donald J. Trump, it is the political and emotional carousel of his decisions and actions. Those of us who follow American news know that he is not an easy character to bring down.
The investigations into Russian interference in the 2016 elections, the impeachment never held, his statements on Twitter and freedom of expression, the reaction to social protests after the death of African-American George Floyd or the fall in stock values are some of the the most prominent holders of the mandate that is coming to an end.
Erratic and aggressive, but at the moment nobody can with him
At the very least, we can point out that President Trump maintains an erratic and aggressive leadership style, although, for the moment, nothing and no one can beat him. It is undoubtedly too early to assess his possible reelection on November 3, 2020, but we can already anticipate some elements of the intellectual legacy of Trumpism, whose influences are observed in other world leaders.
It is not Trump alone, but a current that I dare to describe as intellectual and ontological, an essay on understanding international reality. Trump names the stream, but his legacy is global in scope. Jair Bolsonaro, Boris Johnson, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Víktor Orban, Aleksander Vucic and Narendra Modi follow him in the wake.
The primacy of the executive branch
Parliament and the judiciary become two complementary powers, which interfere with the government of the decree law or the executive order. It is the paradigm of exception and social alarm, which dilutes the discussion about the scope or consequences of public policies to focus on the effectiveness of the measures.
Trump does not like to consult his decisions with anyone, he shuns the experts and vacates technical decision positions. In Poland, the disciplinary battle against the judges has reached the Court of Justice of the European Union, which has asked for preventive measures against the reforms of the Law and Justice Party. In Russia, Parliament has approved constitutional reforms that will perpetuate the mandate of Vladimir Putin.
Economic nationalism and artificial barriers to trade
"We have gone too far in globalization and this has to change and is changing," said Thierry Breton, European Commissioner and Head of the Internal Market!
Increasing deglobalization is thus a political decision whose consequences are economic and commercial. COVID-19 has accelerated a trend seen before: the healthcare industry is strategic. And the pharmacist. And the automobile. And an ever-growing list of economic activities. In the United Kingdom, the negotiations for the post-Brexit agreement get stuck in the level playing field, that is, the economic and commercial conditions. Regaining control concealed an economic argument for new trade agreements, especially with the United States.
Polarization and social unrest
Trump has a very high rate of loyalty among the Republican voter, but it does not exceed 49% popularity. In practice, it means that he is not capable of attracting registered voters as Democrats, even though he may attract the segment of independent voters. A strong charisma ensures the recognition of yours, but ignores a huge socio-demographic segment.
In India, Modi's second term revolves around Hindu nationalism and citizenship laws. Duterte's speech in the Philippines is built on hyperbole and disparaging messages against critics. In their work How Democracies Die, Levitsky and Ziblatt study how the deterioration of political life begins with contempt for the political rival and his identification with behaviors that are inappropriate for “our” democracy. So it is difficult to build a life project in common.
The weakening of institutions and the multilateral order, the constant threats to the viability of the World Health Organization, the abandonment of the Paris Accords or the criticism of the European Commission by the leaders of the Visegrad reflect a desire to control the national political activity without reciprocal sovereign obligations.
Chinese or Turkish cooperation in Serbia is intended to seduce and attract the Balkan gaze and discourage their joining the EU. In any case, without cooperation, the great contemporary problems will escalate, be it climate change, migration, cybersecurity or terrorism.
America First's victory leaves three legacies: neo-isolationism, protectionism, and reinforced borders.
The discredit of science and, above all, of the press
The recent decalogue of López Obrador to get out of the coronavirus includes the elimination of racist, classist, sexist and discriminatory attitudes or the search for a spirituality or a dream in life.
Bolsonaro called the infection a "flu" and criticized the social isolation imposed by certain states. He shares with Trump his fondness for hydroxychloriquine-based treatments, with or without foundation.
Boris Johson has despised and censured the reports on the pandemic that bet on a hard trust, contrary to the thesis of group immunity. If with 8.2 million infected by COVID-19 (and 445,000 dead) it costs to finance scientific projects, disbelief in the face of climate change - whose effects are not seen on a daily basis - is a terrible legacy.
The militarization of the protest
In Hong Kong, in the streets of Minneapolis, in Kashmir, in Chile, in Ecuador or in Bolivia. It doesn't matter where you look. The visual communication of the response to the protest is the use of the Armed Forces, the rhetoric of law and order and the conservative turn of the presidents.
Trumpism is based on the tough profile of the executive power, which stifles any initiative of collective conscience and protest.
In sum, the intellectual legacy is a kind of media neopopulism (Silvio Waisbord) that generates a messianic discourse, a pop politics (Adriana Amado) that practices a celebrity aesthetic and a hyper-leadership of charisma, anti-intellectuality and political management of emotions.
Trumpism, whatever happens in the November elections, has already marked an era in international politics.
