USA, the ratification of January 6 is the last challenge for the Trumpians
After the decision of the constituency of last December 14, there remains one last act before Joe Biden is officially proclaimed president. On January 6, the House of Representatives and the Senate in a joint session will have to ratify the result of the fifty states of the federation, one by one. There are fifty electoral certificates that the representatives and senators elected last November 3 can accept or contest. Before Trump it was a solemn but formal act. January 6 may not be
Let's say immediately that there is no concrete possibility that the result decided in the electoral college will be overturned. But this latest act, before the inauguration of the new president on January 20, represents an ideal venue for Trump and his supporters to reaffirm once again the thesis that Biden's election is illegitimate and to ensure that the GOP continue to be Trump's party even after his exit from the White House. With what consequences for the party and for American democracy it is difficult to predict today.
The US Constitution says little about this latest act. It merely states that it is up to the President of the Senate to open the certificates transmitted by the states and to count the votes.
Only in 1887 with the passage of the Electoral Count Act was the role of Congress specified. In order to contest any of the electoral certificates transmitted by the states it is necessary that the ratification be questioned jointly by a member of the Chamber and a member of the Senate. In this case, each branch of Congress will have to meet and have two hours to decide whether or not to approve the result of the state in question. For the result to be rejected, the House and Senate must agree. In the past, it has happened that individual members of one of the two chambers have raised objections. And it also happened - the last time in 2005 - that a deputy and a senator acted by mutual agreement. But they were acts without consequences.
On a substantial level, even on January 6 there will be no consequences. In fact, even if all Republican senators, who - after the vote in Georgia - may still be in the majority, speak out against ratification, their vote will have no effect, given that the Democrats control the House. So it is certain that Congress will approve the decision of the constituency and at the end of the count of 50 certificates the President of the Senate Pence will officially declare - perhaps with some embarrassment - Joe Biden president of the United States.
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But the importance of what will happen on January 6 does not lie in the formalization of Biden's election which, as we have said, is taken for granted but in the position of the Republican party in the event that the Chamber and Senate are called to vote on one or more electoral certificates. How will Republican deputies and senators vote? In favor of ratification and therefore recognizing the correctness of Biden's election or against confirming Trump's thesis and his strategy of delegitimizing the electoral process? Up to now they have not faced such a clear choice. There are those who supported Trump in a decisive manner and those who did so tepidly and there are also those who were simply silent. On January 6 they will have to choose between loyalty to Trump and attachment to institutions.
What are the chances that we will get to vote to reject the vote of one or more states? It is already known that a group of Republican elected officials in the House, led by Mo Brooks MP from Alabama, intend to challenge the result of five states. But they can't do it alone. They need to find a colleague in the Senate to sign the request with them. The surprise of these days is that the leader of the Republican party in the Senate Mitch McConnell, who from November 3 onwards had always supported all of Trump's moves, has decided to recognize Biden's election and is working hard to convince the his fellow senators not to support the initiative of the House Republicans.
McConnell is a Trumpian, but he is not a fool. He understood the danger that a head-on collision on January 6th represents for his party. It is easy to imagine that such a vote could represent a further step in the definitive transformation of the GOP into the Trump party or could break it irremediably. This is why he wants to avoid this latest challenge to the electoral process from which Trump came out defeated. In doing so, he shows unexpected courage, since he knows well that the outgoing president has on his side the vast majority of Republican voters who are entirely convinced that Biden won thanks to massive fraud. But on closer inspection it is not so much courage that drives him, but rational calculation. McConnell is a long-time politician who tries to limit the damage while waiting for the night to pass.
In a few days we will see how he will turn out. There is no doubt that there are Republican senators sensitive to the call of the latest challenge. And there is little doubt that Trump will change his mind before January 6. So even this last act of the long and cumbersome process of selecting the US President will help us understand what Joe Biden and American democracy can expect in the near future.
