Trump and his aftermath in the world
EL PAÍS correspondents analyze the geopolitical consequences of the tycoon's arrival
The arrival of billionaire Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States will have consequences in much of the world. The correspondents of EL PAÍS analyze the possible effects of Trump's foreign policy:
EUROPE
The threat of breaking Atlanticism. By CLAUDI PÉREZ
Relations between Trump and Europe are born crooked. Just days after becoming president, Trump continues to charge the Europeans in a furious attack that has not diminished the virulence he already displayed during the campaign. He claims that the UK is right to leave and predicts that others will follow. He stresses that NATO is obsolete. He threatens to put tariffs on German cars. And he blames Chancellor Angela Merkel for the migration crisis for her open door policy. His speech mixes encapsulated realities to provoke (“the EU is a vehicle for Germany”) with populist messages similar to those of Marine Le Pen or Geert Wilders, two of the leaders who adore him.
Since World War II, relations between Europe and the United States have been marked by trade policy and defense, with very strong common interests. But Trump woos Vladimir Putin, attacks Merkel and defends Brexit as a way of life: for seven decades, the US tried to unify Europe and support economic development to contain the communist threat; almost 30 years after the fall of the Wall, the enemy now seems to sit in the White House. The effect, paradoxically, can end up being the same. The message from Berlin and Paris in recent days has been a continuous call for unity. Europe is going to miss out with elections in sight in Holland, France, Germany and Italy and the same populist fringes looming in all those countries.
Trump and Russian passions.
By PILAR BONET
"Trump is ours" ("Trump nash"), exclaims with irony Vladimir Dolin, a Russian colleague, imitating the popular nationalist expression "Crimea is ours" and echoing the passions that the new leader of the House has awakened in his country. White The exaltation and generosity of Russian commentators and politicians (including President Vladimir Putin) in relation to Trump are only matched by the vituperation and humiliation of Barack Obama, whose last-minute feverish activity made Putin impatient, judging by statements he made about an administration that "says goodbye but does not leave."
In the Kremlin they hope that Trump will allow to reestablish the privileged relations that the USSR had with the United States, a country that is the only superpower recognized, respected, and also admired as such by Moscow.
From Russia, Trump is seen as an opportunity to leave behind the lecture on human rights, inviolability of borders and respect for international legality, imparted by Washington and Brussels, especially after the Russian military interference in Ukraine. The Kremlin does not recognize the moral authority of its Western interlocutors to read the primer to it and hopes that Trump will advance the interests of the United States in such a way that, based on common goals (including today especially the fight against radical Islamists in the Middle East) , practical agreements will be reached without great formalities and regardless of the apprehensions and historical experiences of a complex Europe, which in addition to being burdened by its own problems, has been demonized by Russian television.
But the passions that Trump arouses in Russia do not respond only to a temporary conjuncture, but reflect a deeper feature of Russian political culture, which is prone to personification (Putin is Russia and Trump is the United States) and the idealization of the "Object of desire." The reality of these "objects" often disappoints the youthful illusions, the almost religious faith and the passion of the Russians. They were disappointed by the West, as a role model after the dissolution of the USSR in the early 1990s, and may now be disappointed in Trump's ability and willingness to help them overcome international conflicts in which he has been involved in recent years. Unless a miracle happens.
LATIN AMERICA
Fear of a catastrophe in Mexico. By JAN MARTÍNEZ AHRENS
Republican Donald Trump's climb to the top of the world has sparked panic south of the Rio Grande. There is no indicator that has not detected the hazard. The peso, inflation, foreign investment and the price of the tortilla have been dancing on the tightrope for weeks. Day after day, the Republican has multiplied his attacks on Mexico and, what is worse, he has materialized them. From his Twitter account, he has managed, under threat of tax penalties, for a giant like Ford to withdraw an investment of 1,600 million dollars, for General Motors to take part of its production or for Fiat Chrysler to consider a "great madness" to open new projects in the country. To top off the picture, he has accused Mexico of "having taken advantage of the United States" and has made it clear that the wall will not only be built but will be paid for by its neighbor to the south. With Trump, the border has become, more than ever, an abyss.
Few times since the nineteenth century has the tension been greater. United by 3,180 kilometers of border, Trump's kicks feel like earthquakes in Mexico. But the big protests have yet to make their appearance. In a country where the simple increase in the price of gasoline has unleashed a wave of looting and deaths, danger is always near. The same US intelligence services have warned that instability can skyrocket and disrupt the political balance. If it happens, the great beneficiary would be the leftist Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the eternal adversary of the PRI and the PAN, the two great Mexican government forces.
Caution in Colombia and expectation in Venezuela.
By JAVIER LAFUENTE
The consequences of the arrival of Donald Trump to the White House are also unpredictable in the south of the American continent. Colombia cautiously awaits any move by the US president regarding the peace process with the FARC, the implementation of which is taking its first steps. Both President Juan Manuel Santos and his predecessor and his greatest critic, Álvaro Uribe, rushed to congratulate Trump on his triumph, knowing the role that the great Colombian ally has played in the fight against the FARC. The new tenant of the White House, however, has made no reference to Colombia.
On the other hand, he has transcended his interest in Venezuela, after meeting with a series of Latin American experts last week. Trump asked about the situation of the political prisoners of the Chavista government, among them Leopoldo López. The institutional, economic and social crisis in Venezuela is not alien to the United States, which during the end of the Obama Administration has been in favor of promoting the dialogue sponsored by the Vatican and has supported the role of the three former Ibero-American presidents, including the Spanish José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero. While waiting for him to take office, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, who on more than one occasion has already mocked Trump, last week said: "Worse than Obama can be."
MIDDLE EAST
The transfer of the US Embassy to Jerusalem threatens to blow up the Middle East. By JUAN CARLOS SANZ
Before even assuming the presidency, Donald Trump already gave a good example of his policy of backing Israel by pressuring Egypt last month to withdraw a proposal to condemn Jewish settlements in the Security Council. However, the resolution went ahead with the abstention of the United States and the vote of the rest of the countries. Some 70 states have just reminded him at the Paris Conference that there is full consensus in the international community on the solution of the two states to end the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians.
The message for the new president has been resounding: if he keeps his electoral promise to move the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, he will end up burning the entire Middle East. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, who aspires to establish the capital of his state in the eastern part of the Holy City, has warned that he will cease to recognize the existence of Israel if Trump approves the transfer of the diplomatic headquarters.
It also remains to be seen what turn the new Republican Administration may take in the conflict in Syria. Unlike with the outgoing Democratic team, Russia has invited Washington to send representatives to the peace conference sponsored by Moscow and Ankara next Monday in Kazakhstan. Trump argued during his campaign that the central objective of the United States in Syria should be the fight against the Islamic State and not support for the rebels.
Distrust in Iran and optimism in Saudi Arabia.
By ÁNGELES ESPINOSA
The Saudis say optimistic about the arrival of Trump to the White House. His Iranian rivals, always wary of the United States, are more cautious. The president-elect's statements about the region have been so extravagant and contradictory that it is impossible to make projections about the concrete political translation of him. But the confusion also does not help to solve the problems that have been entrenched in recent years. "We wish to work together in all areas of common interest," said Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al Jubeir on Monday when asked about the future Trump presidency during a visit to Paris. In his opinion, Washington and Riyadh share the same objectives in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Libya, terrorism and energy.
Disenchanted with the Obama Administration for failing to stop Mubarak's fall in Egypt and negotiating the nuclear deal with Iran, the Saudis have seen Trump's criticism of that pact ("the worst ever negotiated," he said) as a projection of your own wishes. The problem is that even if the new president decides to repudiate him, directly or through cuts that diminish his effectiveness, he will not only lose influence in the region but will reinforce the hard wing of the Iranian regime, always inclined to act surreptitiously.
On the other hand, Trump's opposition to the agreement clashes with his plans to fight the Islamic State (ISIS). Anyone who seeks to end the presence of that group in the Middle East will automatically find himself in league with Iran. For example, if, as he has announced, the president-elect plans to join Russia in that fight. Furthermore, as a businessman, he is unlikely to want to risk major contracts, such as Boeing's purchase of 80 planes.
Hence, the Iranian president, Hasan Rohaní, has compared Trump's intention to renegotiate the nuclear pact with "turning a sweater into balls of wool."
ASIA
China wants to arrive, the United States wants to leave. By MACARENA VIDAL LIY
The arrival of Donald Trump to the White House promises to have a profound impact on Asia, the axis of the foreign and security policy of his predecessor. The new Administration has proposed abandoning the TPP, the free trade agreement with which Barack Obama planned to strengthen economic ties with his allies in the region. Also the increase in the US naval military presence in those waters.
Cold but pragmatic relations between Washington and Beijing during Barack Obama's term have gotten off to a bad start. Trump and his team have already staged a series of clashes with China in areas that this country considers "non-negotiable," Taiwan and the disputed islands in the sea to its south. While Trump threatens tariffs and protectionist measures, Chinese President Xi Jinping has offered himself to the world in Davos as the great alternative defender of economic globalization - an important nuance: only economic -, of free trade and of the fight against climate change.
Faced with the uncertainty generated by future US foreign policy, countries like Vietnam are considering the possibility of redirecting their relationship with China. Others, like Malaysia or the Philippines, had already begun their approach before the US elections. This year South Korea will hold new elections and may elect a government closer to Beijing. Japan, on the other side, has been quick to raise its hand to remind Trump that he is the best American ally in the region. The death of the TPP represents a setback for Tokyo; For his right-wing prime minister, Shinzo Abe, eager to boost Japan's forces, calls during the new president's campaign for Japan to take charge of its own defense may be an opportunity.
AFRICA
The Sahara and Libya, waiting for solutions. By FRANCISCO PEREGIL
The King of Morocco, Mohamed VI, had an excellent relationship with Hillary Clinton. She praised to Wall Street investors the way the king managed "the process of change" in his country. And the Wikileaks leaks revealed a message in which an adviser to the presidential candidate assured that Mohamed VI had pledged to donate to the Clinton Foundation 12 million dollars (11 million euros), "approximately", if Hillary Clinton attended a conference of the Clinton Global Initiative (CGI) forum, for the development of Africa and the Middle East. The millionaire donation was never proven, but due to the controversy the candidate canceled her presence in Marrakech. In any case, the good harmony between Mohamed VI and Hillary Clinton was evident.
The Polisario Front did not see Clinton's arrival with hope. Now, however, she harbors a ray of hope. The two parties involved are aware that Trump does not have the Sahara conflict on his radar. But the Polisario Front has the hope that former Democratic President James Baker and former UN Special Envoy to Western Sahara will serve as an adviser to the White House on international issues.
The keynote is unpredictability. One thing is the candidate Trump who denies any sacrifice - military and economic - in foreign policy and another is President Trump. Neither in Mauritania, nor in Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia or Libya, no one seems to be clear about what the United States' roadmap will be. Morocco is seen as a key partner in its fight against terrorism. And so Mohamed VI was in charge of reminding Trump in his message of congratulations for the victory in the presidential elections. The king mentioned "strong historical relations" and the coordination of both states in the fight "against all forms of extremism."
In the latter country, the relationship that Trump manages to establish with Egypt and with Libya's strongman in the east of the country, Marshal Jalifa Hafter, who does not recognize the Presidential Council supported by the UN and based in Tripoli, will be key.
