What political future awaits Donald Trump after the events of the Capitol?
All are questions about how Donald Trump will leave the White House 12 days after the inauguration of Joe Biden as the new president of the United States. However, there are some certainties: the GOP's support for its outgoing president was visibly diminished, something that could jeopardize his goal of running for the presidential election in 2024.
The last days of Donald Trump's presidency are stormy and tense, a reflection of the four years of his administration. The calendar moves to January 20, when Democrat Joe Biden becomes president of the United States, and Trump continues to polarize the political scene in overtime.
From the assault on the Capitol in Washington D.C. on the part of his followers until the possibility of granting himself a preventive pardon to avoid future investigations, these last days will mark the future of the American tycoon like no other.
Trump has repeated on several occasions that he will run again for president in the next elections, in 2024. However, his support among advisers and within the Republican Party has been undermined after the events of January 6, when Trump himself called for the demonstration that broke into the Capitol to interrupt the certification of Biden's electoral victory in an unusual day of attack on institutions.
A second 'impeachment' on the table
The immediate future of Trump is pending of two paths that open and that advance against the clock: the 'impeachment', a political trial that the Democrats want to promote, and the self-forgiveness that the Republican president has proposed on several occasions.
The Democratic opposition seeks to remove Trump within days of the Blue Party arriving in the White House. One of the possibilities is to initiate an impeachment process in the House of Representatives, dominated by Democrats, something that they already tried in February 2020. A process that usually takes several weeks. Another possibility is to activate Amendment 25, which transfers powers to the Vice Presidency.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi already polls Democratic lawmakers, among whom she says she has more support than she in February for a Trump impeachment, but for now she seems to be leaning toward using the 25th Amendment.
Both in the 'impeachment' process and in Amendment 25, it seems difficult to get enough support and do it in time before January 20. For Muni Jensen, political analyst at Albright Stonebridge, currently "there is a better chance of achieving it (...) however, there is little time and it is not certain that they will achieve what they set out to do," she adds in an interview with France 24.
If impeachment succeeds, the legislature would have the ability to prevent Trump from running again in any presidential election. But even if it does not prosper, the president would be the first to have received two impeachments, something unheard of in American history.
The unusual possibility of self-forgiveness
On the other hand, advisers close to Trump confirmed that the president seeks to pardon himself, thanks to his presidential powers, to avoid being investigated when he leaves the White House. "This legal process is not yet clear and it is something without precedent, but if he succeeds, he would be quite armored," Munsen considers.
Mark Greenberg, professor of law and philosophy at the University of California, believes that "Trump would be violating fundamental principles of American law (...) He could commit extremely serious crimes and immediately forgive himself, something that would put him above the law" he adds.
The implications of self-pardon for Trump are unclear, as it could shield him from federal but not state investigations. However, in the long run he sets an unusual precedent of imbalance of powers between the Executive and the Judiciary.
The Republican Party's declining support for Trump
But beyond these institutional processes, the strongest impact in recent days has been on Trump's support, both within his party and among his bases.
From Vice President Mike Pence to Senate Republican Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, heavyweights in the red unfollowed Trump in his claims of voter fraud, especially after the Capitol events.
This could cost him his re-election plans in 2024: "It is difficult for a candidate without a party to succeed in the United States, a bipartisan country," Jensen assesses against the possibility that Trump will run without a party.
The 75,000,000 great American Patriots who voted for me, AMERICA FIRST, and MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN, will have a GIANT VOICE long into the future. They will not be disrespected or treated unfairly in any way, shape or form !!!
However, the outgoing president still has not lost everything among the ranks of his party. Some politicians continue to support him, or could pick up his legacy, like Republican Ted Cruz. But beyond the electoral calculations, Jensen makes it clear that "Trump represents a real and dangerous political force for the country and for the world."
Bases could be Trump's lifeline
Trump himself recalled him on January 8 in a trill with his characteristic capital letters: "The 75 million great American patriots who voted for me (...) will have a giant voice for a long time." And is that the president still has strong support among his bases, who are willing to break into the Capitol to defend him.
However, Trump was forced to condemn the protest and the violence, that is, to condemn the actions that he himself had incited, something that could distance him from his followers who firmly believe in the theory of electoral fraud.
For Jensen, this was a "forced" concession, "to exonerate himself from inciting a violent attack on democracy," which will have no real effect on Trump's voters. "His followers will be with him above all else," he says.
