Experts say coronavirus crisis affects Trump's reelection race
It will not be easy for Trump to win the votes of the masses who are in a difficult situation because they do not have health insurance, said one expert.
Kadir Ustun, the Washington D.C. coordinator for the Political, Economic and Social Research Foundation (SETA), and Gokturk Tuysuzoglu, a member of the faculty of the Department of International Relations of the University of Giresun evaluated the effects of the coronavirus pandemic in the United States presidential elections for the Agency Anadolu.
Ustun stressed that COVID-19 will have a decisive effect on the presidential elections, especially for US President Donald Trump:
"It is not difficult to predict that in the United States, which was experiencing one of the best economic periods in history before the virus and where 33.2 million jobs have been lost due to the crisis, the millions who lost their jobs will not be able to return to work. their jobs immediately. The economic problems that will be experienced by unemployment will be the biggest disadvantage for Trump. "
The expert pointed out that even if Trump's voter base has not changed, there is no evidence that independents are satisfied with their performance. In addition to the economic situation, the situation in the states is changing due to the delegate system and therefore the degree of responsibility that the public attributes to the president will be decisive.
Noting the economic loss and unemployment, especially in the Midwestern states, Ustun said it will not be easy for Trump to win the votes of the masses who are in a difficult situation because they do not have health insurance.
Current polls show Biden in the lead
Stating that Democratic Party presidential candidate Joe Biden does not excite all wings of his party, Ustun said: "However, with the lesson learned from the 2016 election and with the influence of Obama, all factions seem Democrats, who say "make it anyone but Trump," rally around Biden.
He stressed that the working class and less educated Anglo segments in the Midwestern states, where Democrats struggled to gain support for former presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, get along better with Biden.
"If he could establish a broad coalition and take over the working class of the Midwestern states, Biden could take advantage, but it should be noted that there are six months until the elections and many things could change. If a few months before the elections the economy improves. and it stabilizes, it will be an advantage for Trump. Current polls show that Biden is ahead, but it is too early to make a serious forecast. "
Trump enters electoral tension
For his part, Tuysuzoglu pointed out that the shaking of economic indicators during the pandemic and the reaction produced by Trump's desire to open the economy immediately make it difficult for him to run for re-election.
"Issues such as that the health system has serious deficiencies, even incapacity, and that the president enters a" duel of words "with many governors in front of the press, reveals that Trump is under electoral stress," added the expert.
Recalling that analyzes were conducted earlier this year that Trump would win easily, Tuysuzoglu emphasized that they have increased evaluations showing candidates in the same position and even Biden as the winner.
The expert noted that Trump could view the early positive results of the studies for the vaccine as a sign of victory.
"That Trump has to deal with the crisis in the country instead of with his new candidacy program makes his job very difficult," Tuysuzoglu said.
The situation does not play in Trump's favor
Noting Trump's bizarre remarks during the coronavirus crisis, Tuysuzoglu said that Biden has the advantage of presenting himself as the "voice of logic" and the person who can rule the country.
"In the current conjuncture, I see the possibilities of both in the elections very close. If I had to comment on the one before the epidemic, I would say that Trump would have won the elections comfortably. However, the situation does not reveal a path in his favor. As the current situation progresses, the economic burden increases and the pandemic continues to claim lives, leading to a negative process for its administration. "
Tuysuzoglu added that Biden's biggest disadvantage is the "fragmented image" of Democratic voters, and predicted that Biden can win the votes of some sectors without much effort by being seen as "the lesser of two evils."
