15 graphs on the economy with Donald Trump and Barack Obama
The US economy is growing at about the same rate it did during Obama's later years, and unemployment, although lower under Trump, has followed a trend that began in 2011.
Will a recession come in 2020 or 2021? Experts continue to debate the conflicting signals, but a telling question is: how do you compare the economy with Donald Trump versus the economy with Barack Obama?
President Donald Trump consistently refers to the US economy as "strong," "great," and "the best in our nation's history," but if we look closely, the data shows us a mixed movie about whether the current economy it is better than Obama's in his later years. The US economy is growing at about the same rate as it did during the last years of Obama, and unemployment, although lower under Trump, has followed a trend that began in 2011.
The best argument Trump can make about an improvement since he took office is raising wages. The typical American salary is finally growing more than 3% per year, a level that had not been seen since before the Great Recession. Similarly, consumer and business confidence grew after Trump's election and has remained high. Manufacturing output - and jobs - also posted a notable jump in 2018 following the tax cut, although the manufacturing sector continues to recover. There has also been a drop in the number of Americans who depend on government food supports.
But in other areas Trump's record doesn't look so rosy. Public debt and the trade deficit are growing (although many economists are not concerned about the growing trade deficit, Trump made it a central part of his 2016 election campaign) and business investment is faltering because business leaders say they distrust the Trump's trade war. The number of Americans without health insurance is increasing slightly.
On two of Trump's favorite metrics - stocks and jobs - it can be argued that those numbers fared better with Obama, although many economists expected job hikes to slow as the economic recovery is now a decade old.
Presidents only have some control over the economy, but the way voters perceive economic conditions and their personal finances can influence how they vote. Recently, Republicans and many wealthy voters rate the current US economy as the best since the boom of the 1990s, while Democrats and many lower-income voters are less optimistic.
Here's a look at the economy with Donald Trump versus Barack Obama in 15 charts:
1. Increase in jobs
The US economy added an average of 250,000 jobs a month in 2014 and 227,000 jobs a month in 2015. Trump hasn't been able to beat that number so far, but experts say job growth remains surprisingly robust, especially now that many Baby boomers are retiring and many business owners have complained about a lack of new workers.
2. Unemployment rate
America's unemployment rate is at its lowest in half a century, a source of pride for Trump. But many economists have pointed out that the unemployment rate has been falling steadily since 2011, making it harder to see a difference since Trump took office.
3. Growth
After a painful 2009, the economy has been growing for a decade. In the early years of the recovery, growth was lackluster, but began picking up pace in 2014 and 2015. Trump told Americans he could do better as president, but his numbers so far look a lot like those of the last years of Obama. His tax cut and his deregulation drive fueled growth in 2018, but that seems to be fading as business owners start to worry about the trade war.
4. Income of the middle class
Most Americans saw a notable drop in their income during the Great Recession and it took years for wages to recover. In 2017, an average middle-class family finally saw its biggest rise in income since 1999. Corresponding data for 2018 will be released in September 2019. Income has grown steadily in recent years as Americans gain employment.
5. Stock market
By this date, the Dow Jones industrial average had grown 46% during the Obama years compared to the 25% that has grown under the Trump administration. Stocks rose under Obama and he ended his administration with one of the best earnings of any president in modern history.
6. Food assistance
In 2013, as part of the aftermath of the Great Recession, one in seven Americans received government assistance (as part of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program), due to difficulties in finding a well-paying job. The numbers fell slightly during the Obama administration, and the decline has accelerated under the Trump administration as Americans have gained jobs and requirements to stay in aid programs have tightened.
7. Industrial production
During his election campaign, Trump made a lot of noise that he would revive the industries and jobs of blue collar workers. Although service sector jobs in healthcare, technology and hospitality rebounded rapidly after the Great Recession, industrial production did not. Trump's tax cuts helped boost manufacturing in 2018 (blue-collar job growth was at its fastest pace since the early 1980s), but Trump's imposed tariffs have hit the industry and sent industrialists in a "technical recession" in 2019.
8. Home prices
The housing market was at the heart of the 2008 financial crisis, and many Americans lost their homes or experienced the devaluation of their real estate firsthand. Home prices rebounded at the end of the Obama administration and have risen steadily under Trump.
9. Gasoline prices
Americans keep an eye on gasoline prices and tend to get nervous when they rise above $ 3 a gallon. For much of the second term of the Obama administration and the current Trump term, gasoline prices have remained below that key threshold.
10. Federal debt
The national debt increased during the Barack Obama administration when the federal government spent money trying to rebuild the US economy after the Great Recession. At the end of the Obama administration, the annual deficit fell considerably, but with Trump the debt has rebounded again thanks to his tax cut and high government spending.
11. Wages
For much of the Obama administration, wages remained low, and his economic team cited the disappointing numbers as the "unfinished run" of his presidency. Under President Trump, the average hourly wage has climbed and is now growing more than 3% annually for the first time in more than a decade. There is a debate about how much credit Trump deserves for this achievement, but his tax cuts and the jump in business confidence, perhaps, had some influence. Concerns are growing again, however, now that growth has stalled in 2019.
12. Consumer confidence
Confidence in the US economy has grown since the 2016 election. This is an area where there has been a clear separation compared to Obama, although experts debate whether there really has been a big difference. Typically, when trust grows, businesses and consumers spend more, but that has not been the case, especially with businesses. Still, high consumer confidence is likely helping the United States avoid recession, even as other parts of the world falter.
13. Trade deficit
For years, the United States has bought more from abroad than it has sold abroad, a situation known as a trade deficit. The trade deficit declined during the Great Recession but has since expanded, which is typically a sign that the US economy is growing robustly. Trump campaigned on the promise of cutting the trade deficit, but it has grown during his administration.
14. Americans without health coverage
One of the key goals of Obama's policies was to facilitate access to health services for Americans. The number of people without health insurance dropped considerably during his administration, following the passage of Obamacare. Progress has stalled with Trump, who tried (unsuccessfully) to dismantle the Affordable Care Act.
15. Business investment
President Trump and his advisers have said the goal of the tax cuts was to incentivize businesses to spend and invest more in new equipment and new factories, which would help boost the US economy for years to come. Although there was a slight jump in business spending in early 2018, business investment has contracted since then (it even hit a negative record in spring 2019), mainly due to the trade war.
