Insurrection of Trump supporters puts American democracy on the ropes
In the run-up to the US presidential elections, the risk of post-election violence was high. The predictions came true on Wednesday when thousands of pro-Trump protesters stormed the United States Capitol, in an unprecedented act, as Congress was about to ratify the victory of President-elect Joe Biden.
The violence in Washington comes after one of the most tumultuous years in American history. In 2020, the Insurance Information Institute estimated sustained losses of more than $ 1 billion, perhaps the costliest civil disorder in the United States.
Since Trump lost the November 3 election, while fostering false theories that the vote was rigged, many wondered how his term would end.
With an unpredictable president, who will remain in the White House until January 20, potential dangers to democracy were heralded as Trump supporters believe his false claims about the election.
But as the sun sets on the Trump administration, it is clear that the past four years have made America a more fragile state.
Precedents
Predictions of violence in the United States were not unfounded because it is not the first time that electoral riots have occurred.
During the 1920 elections, violence in Florida was used to intimidate and prevent blacks from voting, and scores of African Americans were killed in the 1920 Ocoee Riot, an election-related massacre.
This 100-year-old attack is considered the worst case of election violence in US history.
A sobering warning about potential violence came, in the current case, from the International Crisis Group, a Belgium-based non-governmental non-profit organization.
In the run-up to the recent elections, for the first time in its 25-year history, the group turned its attention to analyzing the risks of political violence in the United States. The organization generally issues warnings about conflict-prone regions, where democracy is fragile.
Red lines
Certain elements constantly emerged as red lines indicating possible electoral violence. These risk factors include a polarized electorate, highly partisan sources of information, and the existence of armed citizens and militias with easy access to weapons.
Furthermore, prior to the elections, unresolved racial tensions continued to be present in the United States stemming from the assassination of George Floyd in May and subsequent civil unrest.
In June, during the riots, the president threatened to use the Insurrection Law to quell protests and used his usual rhetoric to encourage violence rather than quell it.
Perhaps the most dangerous indicator of electoral violence was Trump's tendency to use the executive branch as an intimidating pulpit to fuel divisions and sow chaos. In fact, on the eve of the elections Trump tweeted that a judicial decision that was not in his favor would allow cheating and also generate violence in the streets.
Never before have US presidents linked their electoral prospects and violence immediately before Election Day.
Peaceful transition
The historical norm of the peaceful handover of power in the United States dates back to 1801, when John Adams ceded political power to his opponent Thomas Jefferson after a contested election.
In the current transition period, the new test for American democracy is whether a president like Trump can disregard 200 years of post-election norms to weaken American democracy.
There are four characteristics of fragile states: the loss of the monopoly on the legitimate use of force, the erosion of legitimate authority to make collective decisions, the inability to provide reasonable public services, and the inability to interact with other nation-states as a full member. of the international community.
Even sliding in the direction of a fragile state before January 20 can create a more permissive environment for inappropriate expressions of grievances through violence.
Conditions for violence still exist
In her studies of the democratization of postwar societies, researcher Kristine Höglund has studied the factors that fueled electoral violence.
Höglund found that the conditions that facilitated the use of electoral violence include situations in which violence is perceived as a legitimate political tool and agitators have access to weapons. Other factors that trigger electoral violence are the false interpretations of the electoral results when they are very tight, the misuse of political rights and the mobilization of the militancy.
These conditions currently exist in the United States, and have been clearly perceived during the attack on the United States Capitol.
