Why does Russia want to invade Ukraine?
On Thursday, February 24, Russia has begun attacks on several Ukrainian territories, including the capital, Kiev, starting the war.
Unfortunately, on February 24 Russia has started military actions in several Ukrainian territories, including the capital Kiev. It is the fruit of a long tension that we have seen evolve in recent months. First of all, a bit of context: US intelligence officials recently warned NATO allies that Russian military forces are massing up to 175,000 troops on the Ukraine border. And they could be in a position to invade that country at the end of January. In fact, on the 24th of that same month, the United Kingdom and the United States ordered the evacuation of the families of diplomats from Kiev in the face of an invasion that seems increasingly imminent. Also, on the 25th, the United States announced a state of maximum alert for 8,500 soldiers, fully prepared to mobilize in case of any NATO need in the area. An organization that, by the way, Xi Jinping has already warned that he does not like this "expansive" policy at all. No, Russia is not alone.
The tension is increasing and in Spain the tension is also growing between the different political forces due to the sending of troops and the position of our country in the face of an already more than probable armed conflict. For now, the only shots have been "friendly fire", those of a Ukrainian soldier who has killed 5 companions. He has already been arrested and more news is expected to clarify the event. As for Russia, it has even threatened to cut off natural gas to European countries that take a stand against it. Considering that 40% of our natural gas comes from Russia, you may soon not be so happy about using gas instead of electricity for heating when looking at your household expenses. For its part, the United States and its allies ask Russia to make a start of disarmament to sit down to negotiate. Precisely the latter is what Europe has tried by Macron, but it seems that the only thing that has been achieved is a wave of memes given the size of the table.
Of course, the distance between the two parts cannot be put into images more clearly. If this invasion is confirmed, it would mark the second round of fighting between the two neighboring countries in eight years. Unlike last time, this new conflict has drawn the United States and elements of NATO, pitting powers with nuclear weapons against each other. This is all we know about the possibility of a war between Russia and Ukraine that would also involve Spanish troops given our country's commitment to NATO. The announcement by Russia on February 16 that, after finishing its maneuvers in Crimea, it would begin the withdrawal of its troops, could mean the end of the immediate danger, but not in the medium and long term.
We must also pay attention to the atmosphere in Ukraine, which, too often, we forget that this country is the really big affected. The tension is palpable and an example was the fight in the middle of the television debate between the politician of the pro-Russian Opposition Platform party, Nestor Shufrych, and the journalist Yutiy Butusov. The latter attacked the politician after he refused to condemn Putin's actions.
The most curious thing about the matter is that both continued with the program with their faces beaten. Former President Poroshenko also criticized Shufrych, whom he called a "Russian agent." Last Monday, February 21, Russia and Putin recognized the independence of the self-proclaimed people's republics of Donetsk and Lugansk, sending troops in support of both territories. Ukraine, of course, has interpreted this as a principle of invasion and has already declared a state of emergency throughout the country. Unfortunately, the outbreak of the conflict is very close.
Why is Russia attacking Ukraine?
After Russia, Ukraine is the second largest country in Europe by area, and both share a land border. Historically, Ukraine constituted an important part of the territory inhabited by the people of the great Rus (ancients who gave their name to Russia and Belarus); it was politically dominant among the Rus' before the Mongol Empire invaded it in the 13th century. The territory never fully recovered, and its neighbors, including a Moscow-centered Russia, continually carved up the land between them until the early 20th century. Although Ukraine enjoyed a brief period of independence between 1918 and 1920, it later joined the Soviet Union, which collapsed in 1991. Since then, Ukraine has enjoyed full political independence.
Ukrainian sovereignty is also a sore spot for many in Russia, particularly Putin, who grew up during the reign of the Soviet Union and remember a time when the USSR was a superpower. While the United States and NATO mainly see the independence of Ukraine as something positive for the Ukrainian people. Meanwhile, Moscow sees it as a rejection of a union between the former Soviet states; Under this zero-sum thinking, Ukraine's sovereignty is a victory for the United States and NATO.
What happened the last time Russia invaded Ukraine?
Crimea, a peninsula along the northern coast of the Black Sea, had long been part of Russia, but the Soviet Union transferred it to Ukraine in 1954. As long as the Soviet Union existed it was not a big problem, as it was more about the same as if the US federal government were to transfer a swath of land from California to Nevada. However, once the two countries were independent, Crimea turned out to be strategically important for Russian control of the Black Sea.
The response from the United States and NATO has been lukewarm. The annexation of Crimea and the use of proxies in Donbas were met with economic sanctions and a small amount of military aid to Ukraine, though not enough to significantly re-equip Ukrainian ground forces.
Now a broader concern has emerged: the failure to inflict sufficient punishment on Russia for its aggression has only emboldened it (and Putin in particular). Moscow believes that it can survive any repercussions, short of war, with the West.
What kind of military action will Russia take against Ukraine?
On November 19, the New York Times reported that US intelligence officials had warned NATO allies that Russia was preparing to act, moving forces west toward the Ukrainian border. The United States believes that Russia has been redeploying Russian ground forces numbering some nine or 10 combat divisions, or nearly as many active-duty US Army divisions. The activity began in October and will be completed in late January or early February.
Interestingly, Russian steel and oil companies began to complain of a rail transport shortage that also began in October, perhaps due to high levels of military transport.
What kind of military action could Russia take against Ukraine? Unlike in 2014, when Russia used proxies and its own military personnel, devoid of identification, a new conflict would see direct and open conflict between the two countries. Tactical groups of 90 or more Russian ground force battalions, reinforced with tanks, artillery and air support, would be too large to hide their identities.
If it comes down to all-out war, Russia will likely use only a fraction of its marshaled fighting power, quickly taking over a limited amount of Ukrainian territory. Ukraine is too big to occupy completely, and the longer the conflict drags on, the more likely a NATO military response will be. The occupation of Ukraine, to satisfy Putin's appetite for expansion, is but one part of Russia's goal; the rest consists of cowering the country into political submission to intimidate NATO.
However, Ukrainian independence has never sat well with Russia, and that has continued under the reign of President Vladimir Putin. A history of foreign invasions, from the Mongols to Nazi Germany, has made many in Russia want a wall of buffer states, including Ukraine, surrounding the country. NATO's eastward expansion in the 1990s and 2000s to include countries like Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia stoked Russian paranoia about foreign invasion. Despite NATO's purpose as a defensive alliance, many in Russia see it as a military organization dominated by the United States, which has invaded foreign countries (Afghanistan, Iraq) twice in the last 20 years.
Ukrainian sovereignty is also a sore spot for many in Russia, particularly Putin, who grew up during the reign of the Soviet Union and remember a time when the USSR was a superpower. While the United States and NATO mainly see the independence of Ukraine as something positive for the Ukrainian people. Meanwhile, Moscow sees it as a rejection of a union between the former Soviet states; Under this zero-sum thinking, Ukraine's sovereignty is a victory for the United States and NATO.
