What will change with Joe Biden in the White House? Turnaround on Covid, on the social, on the environment. And continuity with the Trump line on China
ANALYSIS - The new president will take office on January 20. Its first measures will be linked to the management of the pandemic. Among the first moves could then be the confirmation of Obama's health reform, free access to public colleges and universities for the less well-off, the abolition of the "muslim ban" and the return to the table of large international institutions. The duties on imports from China will instead remain. If Republicans retain control of at least one of the two branches of Congress, frequent executive orders will be needed to overcome their opposition
On Wednesday, January 20, 2021, Joe Biden will make his entrance to the White House. His presidency begins at the collision point of multiple crises: the pandemic, which has killed at least 236,000; the economic crisis; the racial protests of recent months. What Biden can do depends, first of all, on the situation he will find in Washington. One thing is absolutely certain: he will be a very different president from his predecessor. Perhaps the most immediate historical reference remains that of Lyndon Johnson, a much less popular and fascinating president than his predecessor John Fitzgerald Kennedy (of whom he was also vice president) but who from a political point of view proved to be more important and decisive for the history of the United States.
THE CONTEXT - It is not yet clear what will happen in the Senate. In particular, we must wait for the second round for the two senatorial seats of Georgia. But it appears that the Republicans have managed to retain control of at least one of the two branches of Congress. This will have certain repercussions on Biden's government action, which in the past has repeatedly said that he is capable of mediating with the Republicans, but who will find himself working with a Republican party transformed and radicalized by four years of Trump administration (among the other, what will be the role of Donald Trump in the months following his defeat? Will he return to being a private citizen, which seems unlikely, or will he continue to deal with politics, on the strength of a base that considers him its legitimate guide? ). However, it is likely that the new president will have to resort to frequent executive orders and administrative acts to overcome the opposition of the Republicans. It is also likely that he will find himself managing with some difficulty the far left wing of his party, which obediently supported him in the election campaign (as he did not with Hillary Clinton in 2016) but who now wants specific commitments. However, it is possible that the confrontation does not become a clash. Biden has already shown he is capable of moving to the left on many issues, from healthcare to university fees, because his party's electoral base has shifted to the left in recent years. His scarce propensity for great ideological visions, his pragmatism, could lead him to far more radical reforms than those initially envisaged. A wealth tax, a wealth tax on the example of that proposed by Elizabeth Warren, could for example be a concrete possibility. After all, as another apparatus man said, Senator Chuck Schumer, the Democrats know very well that "not implementing courageous reforms could make us find ourselves in four years with someone even worse than Donald Trump".
EMERGENCY - Biden therefore does not arrive at the White House with the mandate to govern the existing. However, its first measures will have to be linked to the management of the pandemic. When, on January 20, 2021, Biden is sworn in as president, Covid-19 may have killed over 350,000 deaths (these are projections from the "Centers for Disease Control and Prevention"). Biden's first "order of business" at the White House will therefore be aimed at containing the virus. The Democrat has proposed a plan that provides for the national obligation to wear a mask, an increase in the number of tampons performed and the expansion of the tracking action, increased federal assistance for families affected by the economic effects of the pandemic, a ban on insurance companies from adding additional costs to policies for coverage against Covid.
NATIONAL PRIORITIES - Among the first moves of a Biden administration, there will certainly be the confirmation of the Affordable Care Act, the health reform of Barack Obama, even if it is necessary to see what, at that point, the Supreme Court will have decided, which in recent weeks he has to consider an appeal that focuses precisely on the constitutionality of the law. Many expectations also concern the possibility of Congress introducing a set of measures relating to police reform. For these to become law, however, it will be necessary not only the push of the president but above all the will of the Senate; which at this point, given the Republican opposition to undermining the power of the police departments, appears extremely unlikely. Among Biden's priorities, including those related to education, particularly felt by the party left. His plan calls for free access to public colleges and universities for family members with an income of less than $ 125,000. An important measure, especially on a symbolic level, will be the abolition of the ban on those arriving from some countries with a Muslim majority. And central will be the presentation of a plan to create infrastructures with which to revive the economy destroyed by Covid.
THE INTERNATIONAL SCENE - During the election campaign, Biden has repeatedly accused Trump of having isolated the United States in the world, drastically reducing its prestige. One of the first acts of the new president could therefore be the return to the table of large international institutions / issues. Among these are certainly the Paris climate agreements, from which Trump withdrew the United States, as well as a resumption of negotiations on Iranian nuclear power, also abandoned by the will of the previous president. The day of the inauguration, January 20, will then remain only two weeks before the expiration of the New Start, the only nuclear arms control treaty that survived the Trump presidency. Vladimir Putin said he was willing to renew for another five years; the green light must now come from Joe Biden. Another likely move will be the resumption of US funding to the World Health Organization, which Trump had suspended.
CHINA - Biden is likely to bring a more stable approach to the chapter of relations with China than Donald Trump's rather erratic one, which went from condoning concentration camps for Muslims in Xinjiang to insults for allowing the transmission of viruses to the West . More stable does not mean softer, however. In fact, Biden is likely to pick up on much of Trump's toughest policies towards China. The Democrat has already said he wants to maintain the trade tariffs decided by Trump, also seeking forms of international coordination to maintain pressure on Beijing. He was very tough on issues relating to human rights in China: Biden defined the persecution of the Uighurs as "genocide". If Washington's policy on Taiwan and Hong Kong is not destined to soften, the new president is likely to seek forms of cooperation and understanding with Beijing on the issue of climate change.
ADMINISTRATION - For months, Biden's transition team has been evaluating names and profiles for the next administration. Many of these have already served alongside Biden in the Obama administration. It is known that priority will be given to the internal staff of the White House, to then move on to the choice of the different secretaries. For the powerful role of chief of staff, the name is given of Ron Klain, who held the same position when Biden was vice president and who coordinated the Obama administration's response to the Ebola epidemic. For the role of defense secretary, Michèle Flournoy is named, who was under secretary during the Obama administration and who would be the first woman to fill this role. Lael Brainard, who is a member of the Federal Reserve board and who has already worked for Obama, could go to the Treasury. The possibility of Elizabeth Warren ending up in the Treasury is viewed with enthusiasm by the party left, but would likely meet fierce opposition from Senate Republicans. Susan Rice, also a veteran of the Obama years, is considered the most likely choice for the State Department. A role, perhaps that of attorney general, could go to one of the senators closest to Biden, Chris Coons of Delaware. It is also possible that an important position in the coordination of pandemic management operations is entrusted to Vivek Murthy, a former surgeon general with Obama and who has advised Biden on the subject in recent months.
THE COMPARISON WITH HISTORY - One thing is absolutely certain. Joe Biden will be a very different president from his predecessor. It will obviously be so from a human and character point of view. Biden never misses an opportunity to emphasize his petty-bourgeois origins, his qualities of understanding, listening, reasonableness. Trump was instead, from all points of view, a "larger than life" president, who made his exceptionality, the clash pushed to excess, the victory and destruction of the opponent, peculiar characteristics of his style of government. Then there is another substantial difference, between the old and the new president. With Joe Biden, the United States returns to a well-established politician in Washington, an establishment man, an apparatus Democrat, with no great ideological convictions, who has spent a good part of his life mediating and passing laws in Congress. Just as Johnson was less popular and less glamorous than his predecessor John Fitzgerald Kennedy, Biden is certainly less politically attractive than Obama, the man he was deputy to. But precisely his knowledge of the mechanisms of government and the ability to adapt to the demands of the democratic base could make him a president with interesting and unexpected results.
