Decryption: what if Trump refused to leave?
Donald Trump wanted to be reassuring. "If I lose, I lose," he replied Friday morning to a Fox News reporter. She had asked him if he would willingly leave the White House after a victory in November by Joe Biden, leader in the current polls.
Brett Edkins was anything but reassured. Shortly after Donald Trump's interview, he participated in the launch of Protect the Results. This initiative by two progressive organizations aims to mobilize millions of Americans to demand a peaceful transfer of power in the event of the defeat of the outgoing president.
"Given his past statements, his disregard for democratic norms and the potential for a close or contested election, we cannot rule out the possibility of Trump plunging us into a constitutional crisis," the director told La Presse. policy of Stand Up America, which has allied itself with the Indivisible organization.
The way Donald Trump has reacted to the protests against police brutality and systemic racism has strengthened the organizers of Protect the Results in their belief in the merits of their initiative.
The president's expressed will to use military force against peaceful protesters illustrates that he has no respect for the rule of law and is a danger to our democracy.
Brett Edkins, Political Director of Stand Up America, in a telephone interview on Friday afternoon
The day before, Joe Biden himself had expressed fear that Donald Trump might "try to steal" the presidential election. Statement which White House spokeswoman Kayleigh McEnany called "ridiculous" the next day.
But one fact remains: the fear that Donald Trump will refuse to leave the White House after a possible defeat is widespread among his political opponents and critics. Even former personal attorney for President Michael Cohen expressed it during a congressional hearing.
"Given my experience working with him, I fear that if he loses the 2020 election, there will be no peaceful transition of power," he said on February 27, 2019.
Is this fear justified?
A "very clear" Constitution
John Burke, a political scientist emeritus from the University of Vermont, answers in the negative. And his answer holds true even in the case of a contested election.
“Even if there was any challenge to the results, as there was in 2000 with [George W.] Bush and [Al] Gore, the US Constitution is very clear. The president's term ends on January 20, 2021 at noon, unless he is constitutionally re-elected, "the retired political scientist, author of two books on presidential transitions, told La Presse.
He said the US Constitution is also clear on what to do if the results of the presidential election are still in dispute as the terms of the current president and vice president expire.
"The procedure would then be dictated by the Presidential Succession Act," said John Burke.
However, under this law, the presidency of the United States would fail to the person occupying the post of speaker of the House of Representatives. In other words, under this scenario, Nancy Pelosi would become the first woman to receive the presidential nomination if Democrats remained in the majority in the House after the November vote.
But couldn't Donald Trump try to cling to power by calling in the military? Such an appeal would likely be in vain as long as the military takes an oath to respect the Constitution. It’s a message that Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley has hammered twice in the past few days.
"We must cherish the principle of an apolitical army which is so deeply rooted in the very essence of our republic," the general said last Thursday, apologizing for escorting Donald Trump to an episcopal church in Washington in front of which the latter posed, brandishing a copy of the Bible.
Prior to the photoshoot, authorities cleared the way for the president's entourage by blasting tear gas and stun grenades from a park opposite the White House.
Towards a civil war ?
Brett Edkins of Stand Up America was delighted with General Milley's updates.
“I think that’s reassuring. It reminds us that our democracy is stronger than Donald Trump, ”he said.
But the organizer observed a long silence when discussing with him the scenario of a civil war in which well-armed supporters of Donald Trump would take to the streets to defend their president after an election. tight or contested.
"These are difficult times for our country and for many people around the world," he said at last. “I am convinced that the American people are smarter and more attached to their democracy than our daily political life suggests. If need be, I have no doubts that the Americans would take to the streets and do whatever is necessary to defend our democratic institutions and traditions. We are the country that invented the peaceful transfer of power. It all started with George Washington. Donald Trump will not change 200 years of Amer ican history.
- But isn't Donald Trump, in your own words, the one who despises democratic standards?
- He can try. But the American people are stronger than him. And I think our Constitution and our rule of law are stronger than a man. "
Of course, Donald Trump could make the current polls and all hypothetical scenarios lie by beating Joe Biden, and moreover. His political opponents and critics would then have to wait another four long years before asking again the question that hangs over American politics today: what if Trump refuses to leave?
